Fantasy Football Impact of Packers-Jets Aaron Rodgers Trade
Fantasy 4/24/23
Aaron Rodgers is finally a New York Jet, which instantly elevates New York’s ceiling on offense.
The Jets acquired Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers for pick No. 13, a 2023 second-round pick (No. 42), a sixth-round pick (No. 207) and a conditional 2024 second-round pick that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the plays. The Jets are also getting pick No. 15 and a 2023 fifth-round pick (No. 170).
Now that the Jets have a historic talent at the position, how will their skill-position players be impacted in fantasy? Let’s take a look.
Fantasy Impact of Rodgers' Trade
WR Garrett Wilson
No player will benefit more from this move than Garrett Wilson, whose best ball ADP was already up to 14.9 in anticipation of this trade. Wilson was last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year winner behind 83 receptions for 1,103 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Wilson accomplished that with a quarterback cluster of Zach Wilson, Mike White and 38-year-old Joe Flacco.
Even at 39, Rodgers is a massive upgrade over that group. We can reasonably expect Wilson to be top 10 in receptions, yards receiving and receiving touchdowns this season. Wilson’s ceiling case with Rodgers would look a lot like CeeDee Lamb’s 2022 campaign of 107 receptions for 1,359 yards receiving and nine touchdowns.
WR Allen Lazard
The Jets gave Allen Lazard a four-year, $44 million deal this offseason. That’s a significant contract, indicating he’ll have a substantial role in New York’s offense. Lazard had less target competition as a Packer last year than he’ll have this season. Yet, Lazard finished last season with 60 receptions for 788 yards receiving and six touchdowns in 15 games. It would be ambitious to project Lazard to have a significantly more productive season than that.
WR Corey Davis
Corey Davis is a rumored cut candidate, but as of this moment, he’s still a Jet. Davis has had an up-and-down career that most would view as disappointing for a fifth-overall pick. However, he’s never played with exceptional quarterback talent before. If Davis remains in New York, it wouldn’t be shocking if his production looked similar to Lazard’s. That makes Davis an interesting last-round best ball dart while he remains in New York.
WR Mecole Hardman
Mecole Hardman should be Rodgers’ new Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That means a few spike games with inconsistent fantasy production. If Davis remains with the team, that will reduce Hardman’s overall volume. If Davis departs, Hardman is positioned as the stand-alone WR3.
TE Tyler Conklin
Tyler Conklin has at least 58 receptions for at least 550 yards receiving, with three touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. Conklin saw significant volume when Flacco was under center while being a more inconsistent fantasy option for most of the season. Overall, he’s a talented player with an interesting ceiling now that Rodgers is in town. Conklin is among my favorite late-round best ball targets.
The presence of C.J. Uzomah is a concern for Conklin’s fantasy outlook, as Uzomah is a rock-solid tight end who will cut into Conklin’s playing time. Uzomah might have the occasional spike week, but he’ll likely need a Conklin injury to be fantasy-relevant in most formats.
RB Breece Hall
Breece Hall’s return from his season-ending knee injury is your primary concern in fantasy. Statistically speaking, most running backs don’t return to their pre-injury capabilities until the season after they return from the injury.
Your second concern with Hall in fantasy is that New York’s new offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, deployed a split backfield while he was in Green Bay. Given Hall’s injury situation paired with this pattern from Hackett, Hall could see less volume than fantasy managers would like.
Additionally, the Jets leaned on Hall before his injury last season, mainly when Wilson took over at quarterback. That’s going to be less of a necessity with Rodgers at the controls. Ultimately, Hall is one of the better young runners in the league, but he has a few volume concerns heading into opening day.
QB Aaron Rodgers
Some of Rodgers' uneven 2022 campaign could be attributed to his playing through an injury on his throwing hand. You could chalk up more of it to his well-below-average group of pass-catchers in Green Bay. A mediocre year for Rodgers would be a career season for a few quarterbacks who have been paid a lot of money in recent years.
Regardless, Rodgers will turn 40 years old in early December, so there is a realistic chance that an age-driven decline is on the table this season.
Rodgers is a year removed from winning back-to-back MVPs. He has a better-supporting cast in New York than in Green Bay last season. He’ll also take command of an offense that he’s already familiar with, as Hackett was the Packers’ offensive coordinator from 2019-2021. I’m not super bullish on Rodgers as a fantasy option this season, but he’s a solid option at his current 113.8 Underdog ADP.
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