NFL Analysis
3/20/24
7 min read
2024 NFL Free Agency: 5 Players Who Got Overpaid This Year
The first week of free agency concluded, and most of the big-money deals have already been handed out. For the most part, NFL front offices are doing a better job of mitigating risk when it comes to free agency. We are seeing shorter deals and teams less willing to pay for past performance.
Still, there were a few moves that left us shaking our heads. Here are the five players who were the most overpaid this offseason.
5 Free Agents Who Got Overpaid
5. Leonard Williams, DT, Seattle Seahawks 
Terms: Three Years, $64.5 million ($43.8 million guaranteed)
It wasn't surprising to see the Seattle Seahawks sign Leonard Williams to a long-term extension this offseason. They surrendered their 2024 second-round pick at the trade deadline to acquire him, and they certainly didn't want to lose the asset. Williams started 10 games in Seattle, recording four sacks and nine tackles for a loss.
Williams is a good player, and he has been for several seasons. He isn't an elite pass rusher but continues to be paid like a top-end player. Williams has not made the Pro Bowl since 2016 and has been only a “good” player in the past five seasons. Yet, he continues to get paid like an elite defensive lineman.
Williams will turn 30 this season and is guaranteed nearly $44 million over the next three years. He's been paid as a top-10 interior defensive lineman, and his play just hasn't matched that price for several seasons.
Defensive tackles tend to age well compared to other players, but this seems like a bit of an overpay just because the Seahawks traded a high pick for him.
4. Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants 
Terms: Three Years, $16.5 million ($9.5 million guaranteed)
The New York Giants did the right thing by letting Saquon Barkley leave in free agency. The Giants are rebuilding and got six years of strong production from Barkley. Once he left, there was no reason to spend big money to replace him. The Giants aren't going to compete this season, so saving money on running backs seemed like a foregone conclusion.
However, New York decided to spend on a running back anyway. Rather than go after another Pro Bowl-quality one, they signed Devin Singletary to a pretty decent deal. According to OverTheCap, the Giants gave Singletary $9.5 million guaranteed and made him the 14th-highest-paid running back in the NFL.
On the surface, that doesn’t seem like a lot of money. But Singletary has never been a lead running back and has yet to record 250-plus touches in a season. As he heads into his age-27 season, he's averaging just 4.2 yards per carry.
Singletary is a fine player, but the Giants are paying him like he’s a lead back in his prime. He is a small running back (5-foot-7, 203 pounds) with below-average athleticism, and it’s unlikely his game will improve as he gets older. This type of player usually earns a one-year deal in free agency for close to the veteran minimum, but the Giants decided otherwise.
>>READ: Hot Running Back Market Won't Last Long
3. Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans 
Terms: Four Years, $92 Million ($50 Million Guaranteed)
When the news broke that Michael Pittman Jr. and Tee Higgins were getting franchise tagged, that opened up the door for Calvin Ridley to be the highest-paid receiver in free agency. The Jacksonville Jaguars had to bid against multiple teams, which drove up his price.
After acquiring Ridley via trade in 2022, the Jaguars could not lock him up to a long-term deal. Instead, they lost him to a division rival, the Tennessee Titans. The Titans massively overpaid Ridley, but they felt it was necessary to surround Will Levis with more weapons. Make no mistake about it: Ridley has one of the NFL's worst contracts.
According to OverTheCap.com, Ridley is the NFL's 10th-highest-paid receiver. That is wild when considering Ridley will turn 30 this season, and he's never made a Pro Bowl. What is even wilder is Ridley has just 4,300 career receiving yards and is past his prime. Yet, he's being paid like one of the NFL's best receivers.
Ridley is a big boost to the Titans' passing attack, and there is no question it's more explosive than a week ago. But giving Ridley $50 million guaranteed at this stage of his career feels like a huge mistake.
2. Gabe Davis, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars 
Terms: Three Years, $39 Million ($24 Million Guaranteed)
As bad as Ridley’s deal looks on paper, the Gabe Davis move looks worse. The Jaguars signed Davis before Ridley made his decision, and there is a chance that is a big reason why he chose the Titans instead.
Operating as the No. 2 receiver in Buffalo, Davis never posted a 900-yard season despite playing with Josh Allen. In fact, he never had a season with the Bills with at least 50 receptions. Davis is a nice role player on the right offense but is underqualified to be a No. 2 receiver in a good offense. With the new contract he signed in Jacksonville, that will be the expectation.
Davis is now the NFL's 23rd-highest-paid receiver, but his production and play don’t come anywhere close to that. He’ll be a useful player for Trevor Lawrence, but he is more of a Zay Jones replacement than an upgrade.
1. Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans 
Terms: Three Years, $27 Million ($13 Million Guaranteed)
While Joe Mixon technically wasn’t a free agent, he makes this list as the Cincinnati Bengals were set to cut the veteran back before the Houston Texans jumped in and offered a seventh-round pick for his services.
The Bengals signed Zack Moss (two years, $8 million) to be their lead back, which ended Mixon’s time in Cincinnati.
The Texans were shopping for a big-name running back this offseason and missed out on Barkley and Josh Jacobs early in the process. Rather than wait until the draft, the Texans traded a late-round pick for Mixon and immediately gave him a new deal.
According to OverTheCap.com, only nine running backs have more guaranteed money on their deals than Mixon ($13 million). It's shocking that the Texans gave him that much money because the Bengals were set to release him after signing Moss to a similar deal to what Mixon had left on his previous contract. Clearly, the Bengals viewed Moss as a better player than Mixon and were willing to swap the two for each other in free agency.
Mixon will turn 28 this summer, and his efficiency continues to be mediocre. The last time he averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry was in 2018 when he was a second-year player. Mixon is an average running back (at best), and his game is declining.
There is no reason to pay a premium for a player like Mixon at this point in his career, but that's what the Texans did.
>>READ: This Year's Most Underrated Free Agent Signings
