Betting
12/12/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 15 Betting Preview: Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
Chargers (5-8) at Raiders (5-8)
Spread: Raiders -3
Total: 34
Weather: Indoor venue
The Line Report
Neither the spread nor game total has moved since Sunday night.
Raiders Offense vs. Chargers Defense
Aidan O’Connell’s Las Vegas Raiders were shut out 3-0 by the Vikings last week. In the last four weeks, the Raiders have not scored more than 17 points.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense is below-average but it has allowed fewer than 24 points in each of its past four games. Los Angeles shut out New England in Week 13. O’Connell’s offense scored 17 points against the Chargers in Week 4, which was his first NFL start.
Davante Adams has failed to reach 100 receiving yards in any of O’Connell’s six starts. However, Adams has 43 targets during his past four games. Jakobi Meyers has only gone over 50 receiving yards in one of O’Connell’s starts. Meyers has 20 targets in the last four games.
In their first meeting with the Chargers, Adams had 75 receiving yards and Meyers had 33. The Chargers have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Rookie TE Michael Mayer has 115 receiving yards during the five games he’s played with O’Connell. The Chargers have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
RB Josh Jacobs’ status is in question with a knee and quad issue. Jacobs is having a down year, but he’s still sixth in the league in rushing yards with 805. Jacobs is also 13th in receiving yards among running backs with 296. And 81 of those yards came in his first game against the Chargers.
If Jacobs can’t go, second-year RB Zamir White likely will take the lead in running back carries while Ameer Abdullah supplements. The Chargers have allowed the 16th-most rushing yards and the second-most receiving yards to running backs.
Chargers Offense vs. Raiders Defense
The Chargers offense struggled for a month with Justin Herbert at quarterback. Easton Stick is filling in, so this already low-performing offense takes a massive blow.
Keenan Allen leads the league in receptions (108), he’s fourth in receiving yards (1,243) and his 32.3 percent target share is second-best. Allen is the only consistently productive pass catcher for the Chargers in recent weeks.
Quentin Johnston had 91 receiving yards on three receptions last week. His previous single-game high was 52 receiving yards. The Raiders allow the 22nd-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
TE Gerald Everett has 293 receiving yards while Donald Parham Jr. has 202. The Raiders have given up the 13th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
RB Austin Ekeler missed some time midseason, and he hasn’t had 100 rushing yards in a game since opening day. In fact, Ekeler has been held to 67 rushing yards or fewer in each of his past nine games. Ekeler is, however, second among running backs in receiving yards per game. The Raiders allow the sixth-most rushing yards and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
What You're Betting On
The Chargers beat the Raiders 24-17 back in Week 4 in O’Connell’s debut.
If you’re betting on the Raiders you are primarily betting against Stick’s version of the Chargers offense. That alone is a perfectly reasonable reason to bet on Vegas, and that’s the primary reason the Raiders are the favorite.
You can’t expect much out of O’Connell’s offense, so ultimately what you’re looking for as a Raiders bettor is a strong defensive effort with a turnover-free game from the offense.
If you’re betting on the Chargers, you are primarily betting against O’Connell. He struggled mightily in pressure management against Los Angeles earlier in the season. We just saw the Vikings shut out the Raiders, so that’s a perfectly reasonable stance.
Offensively, this needs to be the Ekeler show on a short week. Expect a prototypical muddy game plan with a quick passing passing game paired with the occasional deep shot to keep the defense honest. But ultimately, Ekeler and the Chargers running back room needs to step up.
Score Prediction: Raiders 16, Chargers 10
Ryan's Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 38-32
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 25-23
