The 2024 NFL Draft is nearly a full year away and there already is speculation that USC’s Caleb Williams and UNC’s Drake Maye will be the top quarterbacks taken. But another player deserves to be brought up in that conversation as a potential top pick next April, Michael Penix Jr.

Others in series: Drake Maye | Caleb Williams | Bo Nix | Jordan Travis | Quinn Ewers | Joe Milton

Michael Penix Jr. Evaluation

Who is Michael Penix Jr.?

Penix is a 6-foot-3, 219-pound left-handed passer entering his sixth year of college football and second season at the University of Washington after transferring from Indiana.

He dealt with significant injuries at Indiana, including twice tearing his right ACL in 2018 and 2020 and missing time because of a separated throwing shoulder in 2021.

Penix transferred to Washington, which had a new head coach in Kalen DeBoer for the 2022 season, and remained healthy. He had the most productive season of his career, throwing for 4,641 yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions while completing 65.3 percent of his passes.

Unlike most of the quarterbacks I studied in the 2023 and 2024 draft classes — except Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud — Penix was not under significant duress, incredibly taking only four sacks throughout the 2022 season. The Husky offense is fun to watch, given that it is well-designed and features NFL concepts such as dropbacks, play-action deep passes, intermediate mesh routes, and quick game. Tape study validates not only the offensive structure’s quality but also Penix’s coaching.

The offense is visually more complex than others, so Penix was not given many candy store completions aside from the quick hitch game. He frequently had to make full-field reads.

What Penix Does Well

Penix is a very well-rounded player, and that starts with sound mechanics. His footwork is tight, and he’s light and nifty on his feet in the pocket with very flexible ankles, which allow him to open his knee and hips to attain optimal accuracy. He also stages the ball well with the tip at the ‘V’ of his neck. That allows him to quickly get the ball up and out with his fast and explosive left-handed release.

Penix’s consistent mechanics lead to throw-to-throw accuracy and the ability to lead receivers with good placement to all areas of the field. He also has the inherent ability to change ball speeds and trajectory, showing a keen understanding of when to drive the ball with velocity or when to throw with touch. With what appears to be a very strong arm on tape, Penix has a confident demeanor, big-time play ability and “it” factor to win from the pocket.

The 23-year-old is quite advanced from a mental perspective. There was evidence of his ability to make full-field reads and finish progressions to his flare control on tape. When he feels pressure, he stays poised and instinctively finds the quiet area of the pocket while keeping his eyes up.

Penix reads coverage and blitzes well, showing good hot recognition and finding an answer when pressured. He is as good as any college quarterback I watched at quickly getting his eyes around to locate secondary receivers, then getting his feet and body in position to get the ball up and out. This occurs a number of times on tape and is extremely impressive.

Penix does most of his damage from the pocket and is clearly a pass-first quarterback. He is also fleet-footed and can be effective as a runner, illustrated by his accomplished high school track background and 10 career rushing touchdowns. Penix is dangerous as a thrower while on the move outside the pocket, showing the ability to make accurate throws from awkward positions and/or alter his arm angles when needed.

How Penix Can Improve

There were not many obvious weaknesses in Penix’s game, but there are some areas he should work on this offseason as he prepares for a crucial super senior season.

While Penix is typically a very good decision-maker, he showed occasional reckless decisions and lapses of judgment, forcing throws unnecessarily. After watching each of his interceptions in 2022, most were his fault and showed a lack of discretion by taking a risk into double coverage or not seeing the defender in underneath coverage.

He also was loose with the ball at times on the move. Fumbles were not a problem for him this season, but he left himself susceptible to the ball being knocked out by blindside pursuit. This is an area to emphasize daily in the offseason and individual work.

I did not see the ability to withstand constant pressure as I had with several other college quarterbacks in the 2023 and 2024 classes, so I cannot fully speak to this part of his game. It was clear on the handful of occasions I saw that he had no problem courageously standing under pressure and accurately delivering the ball.

Comparing Penix to Other Quarterback Prospects

Penix has not been projected to go as high as Williams and Maye because of injury concerns and advanced age (he’ll begin his NFL career at 24). On the field, he is unquestionably on the same tier as those players and should be treated as such.

Penix compares favorably to Stroud or Jake Haener as a passer because of his sound mechanics, footwork in the pocket and ability to work through progressions before throwing an accurate ball. Having been schooled at Washington by DeBoer, Haener’s former head coach at Fresno State, there are similarities in the way the two were coached and the offenses they played in. The primary shortcomings in Haener’s game were due to his lack of size and high-end arm strength, however, and Penix does not have those same concerns.

Penix did not show the same high-level escapability under pressure of Williams or 2023 first-overall pick Bryce Young, and he does not have the elite athleticism of Anthony Richardson. But his ability to win from the pocket in an NFL-oriented passing game, advanced mental capacity and sound mechanics give him a foundation as a potential immediate NFL starter. Penix possesses more than sufficient athletic ability to extend plays outside the pocket with his arm and/or legs which will allow him to create plays out of structure.

I enjoyed watching Penix play in the Husky offense, and the more you watch him, the more you anticipate a smooth transition to the NFL, although that is never a given. It will be interesting to monitor Penix’s growth during his second year in DeBoer’s offense. Hopefully, he will achieve another healthy season in 2023 that could enable him to secure first-round status in the 2024 draft.

Marc Trestman is a former NFL, CFL and college coach. After more than a decade as an offensive coordinator and quarterback coach in the NFL, he coached in four Grey Cups in the CFL, winning three over seven years with Montreal and Toronto before becoming head coach of the Chicago Bears. Follow him on Twitter at @CoachTrestman.