Analysis
8/15/23
23 min read
Top 33 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings for 2023 NFL Season
Below are my top 33 fantasy quarterback rankings, with detailed write-ups for each player. My goal is to provide context behind these rankings so you can better understand the statistics and logic behind my process.
Other Fantasy Rankings: Top 25 TEs | Top 55 RBs | Top 68 WRs
Two important companion pieces for these rankings are:
Tier 1: Truly Elite
1. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts scored 25.6 fantasy points per game last year, but that could be underselling his 2022 campaign. The Philadelphia Eagles had a soft list of opponents, so Hurts didn’t need to do much in the fourth quarter of games. He averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game if you exclude the fourth quarter, by far the highest among all quarterbacks.
He plays behind an elite offensive line, and his surrounding skill players are a top-five unit. He finished 2022 11th in passing yards and 12th in passing touchdowns per game. Hurts also carried the ball 11 times per game, the most in the NFL — his 13 rushing touchdowns were the second-most all-time at the position. No other quarterback offers the same combination of passing and rushing ability.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen narrowly edged Hurts for the most fantasy points per game (25.7) last season. There are concerns the Bills want Josh Allen to run less near the goal line, and his supporting cast is weaker than Hurts’. Still, Allen has averaged at least 24.7 fantasy points per game in the past three seasons. He’s the safest option in this tier.
3. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes lost WR Tyreek Hill, and then Mahomes proceeded to record his third season over the past five years with at least 25.2 fantasy points per game. Because Mahomes is less than half the runner that Hurts and Allen are, his floor for fantasy is slightly lower; he scored 21 and 22.3 fantasy points per game in two of his past four seasons.
His situation looks largely similar to last season when the Kansas City Chiefs were the highest-scoring offense in the NFL. He’s averaged 303 passing yards per game for his career and has been just above 300 rushing yards each of the past three seasons.
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Tier 2: Lamar Jackson
4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson set the record with 28.2 fantasy points per game in 2019 when he had Mark Ingram in the backfield and second-year TE Mark Andrews and rookie WR Marquise Brown were his top two receivers. WR Willie Snead was the main guy in two-receiver sets that season. Since that season, Jackson has scored 23.1, 21.3 and 20.4 fantasy points per game. Part of that is skewed because he had to leave a few games early because of injuries but, unfortunately, fantasy managers still started him during those weeks.
In 2023, he will play with a new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, who has a history of creating pass-heavy game plans. Jackson will also have the best receiving corps of his career, as Andrews will be joined by Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers. Jackson’s floor is lower than the three ahead of him, and there are a lot of moving parts in the Baltimore Ravens’ offense; however, he arguably has the highest ceiling at the position. He’s a solid pick in drafts who goes a round or two later than the three quarterbacks ahead of him.
Tier 3: Path to High Ceiling
5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert had a sublime start to his career through two seasons, topping 22 fantasy points per game in each of them. Everything unraveled in 2022, though, when Herbert played through a rib injury, starting LT Rashawn Slater went down for the season and top receiving options Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both missed significant time due to injury. Herbert still played at the fourth-fastest pace among quarterbacks, but because of the receiver injuries, his average throw depth was third-to-last among qualified starters (ahead of just Matt Ryan and Daniel Jones).
New Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore comes over from Dallas, and his former QB, Dak Prescott, was one of the three quarterbacks who operated at a faster pace last season. Prescott’s average throw depth was eighth among 28 qualified starters, rather than 26th like Herbert’s. Expect a bounce-back fantasy season from Herbert, who now gets Round 1 WR Quentin Johnston from the draft. Everything is falling into place for Herbert to have a career season.
6. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Justin Fields unseating Jackson for the league’s best rushing quarterback was not on my 2022 bingo card. Fields started slowly in all facets, with just 136 passing yards and 39 rushing yards per game through Week 5. His next 10 games told a different story; he averaged 156 passing yards and 95 rushing yards, increasing his total touchdowns to more than two per game after averaging fewer than one per game in those five initial contests.
Fields only topped 200 passing yards in two of 15 games, and he ran overly pure in the passing touchdowns department (his 5.3 percent passing touchdown rate was sixth-best). However, the Bears added DJ Moore this offseason, and receivers Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool should be healthier and more integrated into the offense in 2023. The offensive line should still struggle in pass protection, but it’s likely better than last season, too.
A lot of projection is needed in the passing department for Fields to reach an elite fantasy ceiling, but his rushing should at least give him a high floor.
7. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson topped 21 fantasy points per game in each of his first four seasons before taking 18 months off football (primarily due to suspension) and then struggling in his return. There’s a slight chance six games of football (several of which were affected by inclement weather) are indicative of the rest of Watson’s career. Much more likely is they were natural growing pains after not playing in 2021 and then not practicing with the Cleveland Browns during last offseason.
For 2023, Watson has an entire offseason to prepare, and he is getting valuable reps with his teammates. The Browns have an elite offensive line and a deep collection of surrounding skill players: RB Nick Chubb, WR Amari Cooper, WR Elijah Moore, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones and TE David Njoku. While Watson performed poorly last season, he still showed a propensity to run, and his six carries per game were right in line with his career numbers.
The humanitarian in me does not like Watson, but for fantasy football, Watson is entirely mispriced given his upside. He was a perennial top-five fantasy quarterback during his first four years in the league, and he is the latest quarterback in drafts who can realistically finish as the overall fantasy QB1.
If your aim is purely floor, take Joe Burrow instead. However, you need to finish first place in your fantasy league to win all the money, and Watson profiles as a potential league winner for 2023.
8. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Many will gawk at Joe Burrow being ranked below Herbert, but there’s a method to it all. Burrow’s career-high 22.9 fantasy points per game from 2022 were the same as Herbert’s rookie year and were below Herbert’s Year 2 fantasy output. Burrow is also nursing a calf strain, which could have an impact on his rushing. While the Los Angeles Chargers have been top-three in pass attempts each of the past two years, the Cincinnati Bengals ranked 20th in 2021 and seventh in 2022.
Burrow has thrown for at least 34 passing touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, and he’s a fairly safe bet for 4,500 yards and 30 or more touchdowns. However, his rushing should take a slight hit because of his calf injury, and Burrow operated the eighth-slowest offense last year. He likely takes a small step back from last season and finishes as a mid-to-low-end QB1 for fantasy football.
If you already have Ja’Marr Chase on your roster, prioritize Burrow. Otherwise, he’s best left on your opponents’ rosters this coming season.
9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence broke out in a major way last season, doubling his touchdown rate (2.0 to 4.3 percent) while halving his interception rate (2.8 to 1.4 percent). His rushing dipped slightly, but he still ran for 291 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. As laid out in this article earlier in the week, Lawrence’s 18 fantasy points per game could have easily been 19.7.
With Calvin Ridley now in the fold in Jacksonville, Lawrence should take another step forward in the passing department, and he has a chance to replicate Burrow’s 2022 season, where he finished as the QB4 in points per game.
We recently welcomed NFL insider Ari Meirov on the podcast to discuss his views on all the situations to monitor for fantasy managers. This podcast covered all 16 NFC teams, and this podcast covered the 16 AFC teams and the awards markets.
Tier 4: Should Finish Top-12
10. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith was the most surprising breakout QB of 2022. Per game, he finished 10th in passing yards, sixth in passing touchdowns, eighth in rushing yards and eighth in fantasy points at the position. The Seattle Seahawks added WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Round 1 of the NFL Draft and RB Zach Charbonnet in Round 2.
The Seahawks are loaded with talent surrounding Smith, and both offensive tackles performed admirably as rookies. We should expect improvements to the offensive line, which benefits a quarterback such as Smith who is “pressure sensitive” according to Ryan Reynolds.
11. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
If we remove the game where Tua Tagovailoa left early against the Bengals due to a concussion, only Mahomes threw for more passing yards per game in 2022. Adding on, only Mahomes, Allen and Burrow threw more touchdowns per game if we remove that abbreviated start against Cincinnati.
Tagovailoa would probably go near Lawrence in fantasy drafts if it weren’t for health concerns. Tagovailoa is the latest pick in fantasy drafts who can lead the league in most major passing categories.
12. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Daniel Jones scored the ninth-most fantasy points per game (18.5) last year despite playing with arguably the worst wide receiver group in the league. His 708 rushing yards and seven rushing scores buoyed his fantasy production, and he was much more involved as a runner than ever before — his 7.5 carries per game were well above his previous career-high of 5.6.
Jones’ pass-game struggles can be largely attributed to the Giants’ terrible receiving core, and his league-low 5.8 air yards per pass attempt are a reflection on this situation, not just on Jones’ own struggles as a passer. Positively, his five interceptions were the fewest among starting quarterbacks, and his team added TE Darren Waller, along with a lot of wide receiver depth.
His rushing should come down, but if Jones can progress as a passer in Year 2 with Brian Daboll at the helm, Jones can sneak towards 20 fantasy points per game.
We discussed NFC win-loss predictions for every team on Monday’s podcast. Thursday, August 17, we’ll cover win-loss predictions for the AFC.
Tier 5: Bench Stashes
Neither of these quarterbacks are great options in Superflex leagues, where playing time and floor need to be considered. For one-QB leagues, both players have the ability to put up top-12 production toward the middle or end of 2023. If the scary floors of these quarterbacks have you spooked, slot the more stable Tier 6 guys ahead of those in Tier 5.
13. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson completed fewer than 54 percent of his passes at Florida in 2022 and is unlikely to have much success through the air as a rookie. Rookie quarterbacks struggle to score fantasy points historically, and it’s tough to see Richardson putting up much more in the passing department than Fields did last season. Positively, as a runner, Richardson is a more athletic Cam Newton, so there’s some chance he gives you 800 yards and double-digit scores on the ground.
14. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
It’s unclear when Kyler Murray will return from his late-2022 ACL tear, and when he does, he should run less than before. Fortunately, he’s hovered around 21-23 fantasy points per game as a healthy starter, so the rushing can dip without cratering his raw fantasy points. The Arizona Cardinals should have one of the NFL’s worst defenses, and Murray isn’t not surrounded by a particularly inspiring group of skill players and offensive linemen, either.
If your fantasy league doesn’t have IR spots, don’t draft Murray.
If you haven’t already, make sure you join our FREE Discord to chat fantasy football all offseason. In season, we’ll drop player prop bets each week, along with DFS showdown AMAs and start-sit help.
Tier 6: Good Passers
15. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott has struggled with injuries, missing significant time in both 2020 and 2022. In his last two complete seasons, he averaged 292 passing yards per game. His supporting cast is strong, with a rock-solid offensive line, a good trio of receivers — CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup — and Tony Pollard in the backfield. The worry with Prescott is the loss of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore — now with the Chargers — because Moore had a history of fast-paced, high-scoring offenses that pushed the ball downfield.
Prescott could slot in at the back-end of Tier 4 if you think Mike McCarthy will be an above average play caller. Most likely, Prescott’s QB13 fantasy finish per game repeats itself in 2023.
16. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff was fifth in the NFL with 29 passing touchdowns last year, and his passing yardage ranked sixth. Jamaal Williams led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns, so there’s some meat on the bone for Goff to increase his already-high passing touchdown numbers. The Detroit Lions scored the fifth-most points in the NFL last year and look like a better overall offense for 2023.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs is an elite pass-catching back, Jameson Williams will slot in as the WR2 after a six-game suspension, and rookie TE Sam LaPorta has comparable speed to Travis Kelce. Then we get to superstar receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. Goff has an aggressive coaching staff calling sharp plays and is in one of the best overall situations in all of football. He offers nothing as a runner, but he can crack the top-12 with passing stats. Think of him as the perfect QB2 in Superflex formats.
17. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson deserves a mulligan for last season. Before getting to his own struggles, it’s important to acknowledge:
- Coach Nathaniel Hackett was fired midseason for poor clock management and lack of leadership. Now the team is coached by Sean Payton, who orchestrated the Drew Brees offenses in New Orleans.
- The Denver Broncos’ offensive line was below average. They fortified this unit in free agency.
- WR Jerry Jeudy missed parts of five games due to injury.
- WR Courtland Sutton missed parts of three games due to injury.
- TE Greg Dulcich missed seven games to injury.
- RB Javonte Williams tore his ACL in Week 4.
The team won’t have WR Tim Patrick again, but they do inject speedy Round 2 rookie WR Marvin Mims, whose vertical skill set matches up well with Wilson’s deep balls. Wilson was one of the NFL’s most consistent quarterbacks of the past decade prior to 2022, and he should get back on track in 2023. His path to being a top-12 QB involves his sneaky rushing ability and his long history of efficient passing seasons (at least 31 passing touchdowns in five of six years from 2015-20 before a 25-6 TD-INT ratio in 2021).
18. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins tied with Goff for fifth with 29 touchdown passes last season, and Cousins was fourth in the NFL with 4,547 passing yards. The Vikings replaced aging veteran Adam Thielen with Round 1 WR Jordan Addison in the recent draft and will now have a full season from T.J. Hockenson.
The pieces are in place for a massive season from Cousins as a passer, but Minnesota’s defense should take enough of a step forward in 2023 to negate most of these changes. Brian Flores is the new defensive coordinator, and he should improve a pass defense that allowed the second-most yards per game in 2022.
19. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers is now with the New York Jets, and his outlook is rosier than last year, when he played on a Green Bay Packers team with an injured offensive line and Allen Lazard as the team’s No. 1 receiver for half their games. Garrett Wilson is a superstar in waiting, and while the offensive line has question marks, this is almost certainly an upgrade from last year’s overall situation in Green Bay.
Rodgers operated the slowest offense in both 2021 and 2022 via pace of play, so it’s tough to see him being fantasy-relevant in 12-team leagues that aren’t Superflex. He threw for 48 and 37 touchdowns in 2020 and 2021, respectively, so there’s certainly a chance he returns to those heights. However, the Jets’ elite defense, along with the league’s best running back room — Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook — will hurt Rodgers’ passing upside. He’s a solid target in Superflex/two-QB leagues but should remain on waivers in most redraft leagues.
Tier 7: Streaming Options
20. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett never reached 20 fantasy points in any game last season, finishing with seven touchdown passes and nine interceptions across 13 games. However, he did show some mobility, and his 4.2 rush attempts and 18.2 rushing yards per game ranked 10th and 11th, respectively.
The Pittsburgh Steelers made numerous changes this offseason that upgraded Pickett’s situation, and we often see Year 2 quarterbacks take a major leap forward. I detailed a season-long bet I made on him, along with all the positive changes happening around him here.
21. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans under Ryan Tannehill have been one of the league’s most efficient scoring offenses in the red zone. He had 22 passing touchdowns in just 12 games in 2019, before throwing for 33 and running in seven more in 2020. He combined for 28 total touchdowns in 2021 before the supporting cast bottomed out in 2022 and injuries reared their ugly head.
The Titans should have the league’s worst offensive line, but the quadruple threat of WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks, RB Derrick Henry and athletic TE Chigoziem Okonkwo should be enough to keep Tannehill moderately fantasy-relevant in 2023. His QB9 (2020) and QB14 (2021) finishes in fantasy points per game show he can be a borderline QB1 type, if not a high-end streamer. Prioritize Tannehill in Superflex leagues.
22. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr has never reached 18 fantasy points per game in any of his nine seasons — and 18 fantasy points would have tied with Lawrence and Cousins for QB11 per game last season. Carr should be completely avoided in standard redraft fantasy football leagues, but he has appeal in Superflex/2-QB leagues.
The Saints play 13 of 17 games in a dome for 2023, which should benefit the passing attack and overall offense. The Saints also face the league’s easiest overall schedule. Armed with Chris Olave and Michael Thomas at receiver and Alvin Kamara in the backfield (after serving his three-game suspension), Carr will be standing behind a good offensive line with some plus weapons. He’s a good bet to reach 4,200 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, which puts him in the mid-to-low-end QB2 range for fantasy football.
23. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford’s 41-touchdown season in 2021 feels like worlds away after the entire Los Angeles Rams offense crumbled this past season. The offensive line is still a major question mark. And behind the currently injured Cooper Kupp (hamstring), Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson don’t inspire much confidence.
The Rams could easily have the worst pass defense of the past decade, so Stafford’s path to fantasy glory probably comes in the form of garbage-time passing. He’s most likely a matchup-dependent streamer when he faces a team like the Cardinals.
24. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
What Brock Purdy did as a rookie — filling in at the end of the season after being selected with the final pick of the 2023 NFL Draft — is nothing short of remarkable. He even popped onto the fantasy radar with at least 16 fantasy points each of his final five regular season games. Now in Year 2, surrounded by the incomparable group of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, it initially seems like Purdy can reach greater heights.
The big issues holding him back in fantasy are twofold:
- He doesn’t run; he had 13 total rushing yards in 2022.
- His passing touchdown rate was an unsustainable 7.6 percent, which led the entire NFL — for context, Mahomes has averaged a six percent touchdown rate the past four seasons, with the league average being closer to four percent.
If you haven’t already, join our FREE Discord to chat fantasy football all offseason. In season, we’ll drop player prop bets each week, along with DFS showdown AMAs and start-sit help.
Tier 8: Dart Throws
25. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
After three seasons, Jordan Love will finally start be an NFL starter. He doesn’t rush much for fantasy football, and he’s surrounded by the youngest receiving group in the league. WR Christian Watson (Year 2), WR Romeo Doubs (Year 2), WR Jayden Reed (Year 1) and TE Luke Musgrave (Year 1) are an exciting future proposition, but 2023 is still at least one year early for this offense.
Expect a moderately low volume — and bad — pass attack. Love’s biggest redeeming quality for Superflex leagues is he’s a near-lock to start every game for the Packers in 2023.
26. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
Desmond Ridder was taken in the third round last year, and he started the team’s final four games. Three of those games resulted in zero total touchdowns, and despite running an elite 4.52 40-yard time at the combine, he averaged just four attempts for 16 rushing yards in those four rookie starts — worse rushing production than Pickett.
Fortunately for Ridder, the Atlanta Falcons should have one of the NFL’s best offensive lines in 2023, and the triumvirate of WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts and RB Bijan Robinson is among the league’s best. The team will need to take a major step forward in the passing department, but there’s some chance this offense is efficient enough to provide a touchdown spike for Ridder — expecting passing yardage and volume is futile for 2023.
27. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
Sam Howell was a fifth-round pick last year, and his one rookie start in Week 18 came against an unmotivated Cowboys defense. While his five carries for 35 yards and a touchdown were encouraging, his 58 percent completion rate and 169 total passing yards weren’t. The 18 fantasy points are nice on paper, but, again, he had a rushing score. Without that touchdown, we are looking at 12 fantasy points against the Cowboys’ backups. Only Hurts and Fields averaged 0.5 rushing touchdown per game or higher in 2022.
The Washington Commanders have a talented receiver trio in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel, but the offensive line is still a major work in progress. Many in the industry are higher on Howell than I am, given his rushing performance from 2022. However, the context surrounding that game, along with veteran QB Jacoby Brissett waiting in the wings, signal that Howell is a stay-away outside of those desperate for any hope of rushing equity at the position.
28. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield’s 27 passing touchdowns as a rookie in 2018 were a record at the time. He followed that up with two more seasons of at least 3,500 yards and 22 touchdown passes before he crumbled in his fourth season in Cleveland and was subsequently shipped off to the Panthers and Rams for 2022.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a passable offensive line, and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a top-10 receiver duo in the NFL. I expect Baker to start over Kyle Trask in 2023, but even still, there’s a good chance his fantasy production doesn’t crack top-24 levels. The Buccaneers scored the second-fewest points in the NFC last year with Tom Brady, so expectations should be tempered. The 33rd Team’s Ryan Reynolds currently projects the Buccaneers to finish last in the division, and betting markets are aligned with this stance.
29. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young will begin his career behind a very solid offensive line but without any great options to pass to. It’s tough to see the cerebral passer being fantasy-relevant in his rookie season.
30. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Like Young, C.J. Stroud will be playing behind a borderline top-10 offensive line but with Robert Woods or Nico Collins as his WR1. Neither rookie should be selected outside of Superflex formats, where they are both expected to start every game.
31. Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Rumors around Mac Jones’ job stability have continued swirling throughout the offseason, and the New England Patriots have no receiving weapons of note around him. He cracked 20 fantasy points just once last season, and 2023 looks like more of the same.
32. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
Jimmy Garoppolo leaving the 49ers’ scheme will likely result in frustrated Las Vegas Raiders fans on Sundays. Garoppolo is a below-average starter whose efficiency was propped up by Kyle Shanahan’s play calling, as well as by throwing to Samuel, Aiyuk and George Kittle.
Garoppolo actually averaged more passing yards per attempt throughout his 49ers career than Mahomes has in Kansas City, and even still, Garoppolo has never topped 16 fantasy points per game. He’s a massive injury risk behind a flimsy Raiders offensive line, and outside of Davante Adams, the skill players he’ll be throwing to are underwhelming.
33. Jacoby Brissett, Washington Commanders
There’s a real chance Howell flames out early in the season and Brissett takes over for the Commanders. Jacoby Brissett topped 15 fantasy points in six of his 11 starts for Cleveland last year, and he carries some appeal in Superflex leagues for 2023.
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