Buffalo Bills

You can now bet on which team will draft Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson (scouting report) on DraftKings Sportsbook, just like you can with Bijan Robinson (scouting report). Richardson’s odds in the first overall pick market saw wild line movement a little more than a week ago, as he went from a 30-1 longshot to a 7.5-1 contender in a matter of hours. 

After dominating the combine over the weekend, Richardson is now 3-1 to be the first overall pick on DraftKings. As things stand today, Richardson is expected to go early in the first round.

When we analyzed Robinson’s market, we went through every team directly, as Robinson has a wide range of landing spots. In Richardson’s market, we will break down his potential landing spots in groups.

Which Team Will Draft Richardson?

Favorites

Pick 2 & 12 Texans (+1000)

Pick 4 Colts (+400)

Pick 5 & 20 Seahawks (+550)

Pick 6 & 18 Lions (+750)

Pick 7 Raiders (+700)

Pick 8 Falcons (+600)

Pick 9 Panthers (+300)

This market has seven teams with 10/1 odds or less. They all have a draft pick within the top nine selections. Five of them have an immediate need at quarterback. Two are in a position to start a quality veteran this year while potentially allowing a rookie to sit for a full season. 

A lot can happen between now and the draft, but this betting market indicates one of these seven teams will likely select Richardson. Let’s dive into the favorites.

The Houston Texans will almost certainly draft a new quarterback, and they have the easiest path to moving up to the first pick. Despite their position, the Texans have the longest odds of selecting Richardson from this group. Betting markets believe Houston is more likely to take Bryce Young (scouting report) than Richardson.

The Indianapolis Colts are the second favorite in this market. The Colts’ new coach, former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, had great success with dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts. I’ve often said Hurts is among the most unique quarterback prospects I’ve ever evaluated. When he was at Alabama, I didn’t think he had any chance of developing into an impactful passer in the NFL. Then, he transferred to Oklahoma and looked like an entirely different player. I’ve never seen anything quite like it.

Richardson has similar potential but only started one year in college and never had that Hurts in Oklahoma-type season as a passer. Richardson could still be available if the Colts sit tight with the fourth pick. Indianapolis is also close enough to the top of the draft to trade up to the top spot if it wants to get ahead of Houston.

The Seattle Seahawks and the Detroit Lions are in similar positions. They both won nine games last year, had top-10 offenses, have two first-round picks, are both sneaky intriguing contenders in a weak NFC, and have veteran quarterbacks that are good but could be better. Both teams are in a position to develop a player like Richardson behind a quality veteran quarterback.

The Las Vegas Raiders appear interested in acquiring a veteran quarterback through trade or free agency. That doesn’t preclude them from taking a quarterback in the first round, especially if they can’t trade for Aaron Rodgers. But ultimately, that’s why Vegas is the fifth favorite in this market, with longer odds than two favorites that pick after them.

>> READ: Rodgers’ Decision Will Come Soon Enough

If Richardson is still available at pick eight, I’d be surprised if he got past the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have a solid offensive line and an excellent young core of blue-chip pass-catchers. Arthur Smith’s run-centric, play-action-driven offense would be an intriguing fit for Richardson’s skill set. 

The Carolina Panthers are the top favorite in this market. Carolina hasn’t had a real solution at quarterback since Cam Newton missed most of the 2019 season. If any of the four quarterbacks expected to go in the first round are available, there is a good chance they don’t get past the Panthers.

The Falcons and Panthers selecting back-to-back could result in a trade-up by either team to secure a quarterback.

Fringe Contenders

Pick 11 Titans (+1300)

Pick 16 Commanders (+1600)

Both the Tennessee Titans and Washington Commanders could use a new future at quarterback. If Richardson falls, the Titans can start Ryan Tannehill this season while being patient with Richardson’s development. The Titans are in an interesting position to trade up for a quarterback with the 11th pick, too.

Washington appears to be entering the season with Sam Howell as its quarterback. The Commanders should be in the new quarterback market. However, they will have to leapfrog many teams with a quarterback need to get one of the top four guys. 

Longshots With Potential

Pick 13 Jets (+3000)

Pick 19 Buccaneers (+2000)

Pick 22 Ravens (+2500)

Pick 23 Vikings (+2500)

The New York Jets have a win-now roster, so they are a likely destination for Rodgers and Derek Carr. If the Jets miss out on both, they can trade up for a quarterback they like. If New York misses out on Rodgers and Carr, I will check this market to see if they are still 30-1.

>> READ: Is Carr Answer for QB Needy Teams? 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a similar position to the Commanders in this year’s draft. The Buccaneers may enter the season with an unproven player still on their rookie deal in Kyle Trask. 

If the Baltimore Ravens or Minnesota Vikings were 75-1 in this market, I’d consider putting a bet on them. If the Ravens traded Lamar Jackson, it would make sense for them to get a dynamic quarterback prospect in this year’s draft. If one team were going to move on from speed-reliant quarterbacks after their rookie deals purposely, it would probably be Baltimore.

If the Vikings finally blow up their roster and start over, they, too, would become an interesting longshot to acquire Richardson. That said, there is no value on either of these teams at 25-1 odds.

Unlikely Longshots

Pick 1 Chicago Bears (+2500)

Pick 14 Patriots (+3500)

Pick 15 Packers (+7500)

Pick 17 Steelers (+10000)

Pick 25 Giants (+4500)

Pick 29 Saints (+4000)

Dolphins (+4500)

Rams (+10000)

49ers (+10000)

The Chicago Bears have the draft capital to start over at quarterback, but should they? The jury is still out on Justin Fields, even though he’s a dynamic athlete that just ran for 1,143 yards. He also turned the Bears into a dangerous offense by himself last season. It would be odd for the Bears to swap their current dynamic quarterback with accuracy concerns for an unproven rookie with the same problems.

>> READ: Bears Leaning Toward Trading No. 1 Overall

The New England Patriots made the playoffs in Mac Jones‘ first season. There is a high chance the Patriots give Jones one more full year after his up-and-down sophomore campaign. Whether it’s Rodgers or Jordan Love under center on opening day, the Green Bay Packers don’t appear to be in the quarterback market.

I expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be patient with Kenny Pickett to the point he likely gets his entire rookie deal to prove himself. I’d be shocked if Pickett wasn’t the uncontested starter for the Steelers heading into opening day.

It appears the New York Giants will either extend Daniel Jones or use the franchise tag on him. They aren’t entirely out of the quarterback market, but they are close to being out. The New Orleans Saints need a new future at quarterback, but they would have to trade away a ton to move up from the 29th pick into new quarterback territory. 

The Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers all have injury uncertainty at quarterback. They would also need more draft capital to enter new quarterback territory.

Teams Completely Out of Quarterback Market

Pick 3 Cardinals (+10000)

Pick 10 & 31 Eagles (+10000)

Pick 21 Chargers (+20000)

Pick 24 Jaguars (+20000)

Pick 26 Cowboys (+10000)

Pick 27 Bills (+20000)

Pick 28 Bengals (+20000)

Pick 30 Chiefs (+20000)

Broncos (+10000)

Browns (+20000)

These teams are all long shots in this market because they are all set at quarterback. The Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs are each complete cross-offs in this market. The Eagles belong in that group as well with Hurts. 

The Arizona Cardinals have the draft capital to select a new quarterback, but they signed Kyler Murray to a long-term deal last offseason. Even if the Cleveland Browns or Denver Broncos wanted to change directions at the position, neither team has a first-round pick to use in a trade. 

Notable Line Movement

This market opened on Friday, March 3. Here are the most notable early line changes in this market:

• The Colts opened at +750, tied for the fifth favorite with the Falcons. Indianapolis is currently +400
• The Falcons opened at +750, tied for the fifth favorite with the Colts. Atlanta is currently +600
• The Raiders opened at +600 and are presently at +700
• The Lions opened at +600 and are currently at +750
• The Titans opened at +1000 and are presently at +1300
• The Commanders opened at +1200 and are currently +1600
• The Buccaneers opened at +1200 and are now +2000
• The Patriots opened at +2200 and are now +3500
• The Giants opened at +3000 and are now +4500
• The Bengals, Bills, Browns, Chargers, Chiefs and Jaguars all opened at +10000 and are now all +20000

If I were an oddsmaker, I would have set the Colts and Falcons as the top two favorites in this market. The Raiders are signaling they’d prefer a veteran quarterback. The Lions could benefit from selecting a top-tier defensive talent, and Jared Goff is only 28. 

As things stand now, Richardson will likely be gone by the time the Titans, Commanders and Buccaneers pick. The Giants and Patriots are unlikely to select a first-round quarterback. If the Bengals, Bills, Browns, Chargers, Chiefs or Jaguars were +50000 in this market, I still wouldn’t frame those as good bets.

There is a logic-based reason behind each of these line movements.

Final Thoughts

I won’t make any bets in this market right now because a seven-team cluster of favorites could all realistically acquire Richardson. We could add the Titans to that mix and make it an eight-team bunch. 

Considering that eight teams within the first 11 picks could realistically draft a quarterback with their first selection, I don’t have any real interest in forcing a bet on a favorite in this market. The underdogs I like don’t have long enough odds for me to pull the trigger.

But I am going to check this market when these events transpire:

• Rodgers gets traded, retires, or stays in Green Bay
• Jimmy Garoppolo signs
• Lamar Jackson signs or gets traded

And if these events transpire:

• Kirk Cousins gets traded
• Jones gets traded
• Someone trades with the Bears for the first-overall pick

I want the “who needs a quarterback” market to narrow before making any bets in this market. I’ll use an example to illustrate why that matters. If, say, Rodgers gets traded to the Raiders, Carr signs with Carolina and Jackson gets traded to the Falcons, that string of events would radically change this market.

Three of the favorites would essentially be eliminated from contention, while the Jets and Ravens would become far more likely to expend significant resources to trade up for a quarterback. That’s another reason I’m waiting to make any bets in this market. 

If I make any bets in this market, I will drop those in our discord in the future.

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