NFL Analysis
11/15/23
5 min read
Surprise NFL Teams That Could Miss 2023 Playoffs Entirely
Week 10 was one of the more exciting football weekends of the season. There were a lot of close games, explosive offensive outings and some old-school football leading to tight, low-scoring games.
Through 10 weeks, we have an idea of what the 2023 playoff picture will look like come January. Still, a few surprise underachievers in the AFC have a rough road ahead to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
Those teams made it tougher on themselves this week by dropping games they probably should’ve won.
Surprise Teams That Might Miss Playoffs
Buffalo Bills
One of the biggest disappointments in Week 10 came in the Buffalo Bills’ 22-21 home loss to the Denver Broncos on Monday night. With the loss to Denver, the Bills’ record drops to 5-5, and they have lost significant ground in the AFC playoff picture.
While 5-5 does not seem like a terrible place to be, looking at their coming schedule gives some hesitation when putting them in the discussion as a playoff lock.
According to the New York Times' playoff predictor, the Bills have a 19 percent chance to make the playoffs and a nine percent chance to win the division.
In their final seven games, the Bills will play the New York Jets at home, the Philadelphia Eagles on the road, the Kansas City Chiefs on the road, the Dallas Cowboys at home, the Los Angeles Chargers on the road, the New England Patriots at home and the Miami Dolphins on the road.Â
That is four road games against playoff teams, a home game against a Cowboys team starting to find its rhythm and two division rivals who have played the Bills tight in the last two-to-three years.
Since their 48-20 win against the Dolphins in Week 4, Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense have struggled to put up points and close out games. In Weeks 5-9, Buffalo’s offense has averaged 19 points a game and has struggled with turning the ball over.
>> READ: Bills' Turnovers Aren't Going Anywhere
The Bills control their destiny, but it is hard to buy into this team being a legitimate playoff team. The struggles Buffalo has put on tape and its challenging schedule don’t inspire much confidence, either.
Cincinnati Bengals
One of the biggest losers from Week 10 is the Cincinnati Bengals.
Despite being favored — heavily — in their matchup against the Houston Texans, the Bengals ended up falling 30-27 in a back-and-forth affair. That loss dropped the Bengals’ playoff odds to 44 percent, putting them in last place in the AFC North.
Like the Bills, the Bengals’ record is not what is most concerning. It’s their schedule.
Sitting at 5-4 and at the bottom of the AFC North, the Bengals’ final eight games are a bit scary. This week, they head to Baltimore on Thursday night to play an angry Baltimore Ravens team that also dropped a bad game.
After that, Cincinnati stays in the division with the Pittsburgh Steelers coming to town, followed by a road trip to visit Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bengals do get a little bit of a break, with the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings coming to town in back-to-back weeks, but we have seen both of those teams make it tough on opponents in the last few weeks.
In the season's final three games, the Bengals will travel to Pittsburgh and Kansas City and will host the Cleveland Browns at home.
Sitting in last place and having half of your final eight games be division opponents can be good. However, things could get scary for the Bengals at 5-4 and already having one loss to the Ravens. Remember, this is a team many favored as Super Bowl contenders.
Los Angeles Chargers
The least surprising team on this list — but still a bit of a surprise — is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Coming off yet another disappointing loss to the Detroit Lions, the Chargers’ odds of making the playoffs have dipped to 28 percent.
While new OC Kellen Moore and the Chargers’ offense have been doing some nice things, Los Angeles’ defense is struggling to find any consistency against above-average offenses.
Of the Bills, Bengals and Chargers, Los Angeles has the most favorable schedule to close out its season, but the Chargers have dug themselves a deep hole.
In their final eight games, the Chargers will host the Ravens, Broncos, Bills and Chiefs. They’ll hit the road to face the Green Bay Packers, Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders and Broncos.
While there are still five to six games left on Los Angeles’ schedule where the team is expected to be favored, putting any faith in the Chargers to close out the season on a high note and grab one of the last wild-card spots isn’t wise.
If the Chargers’ season ends as expected, there will likely be a new coaching staff running the show in 2024.
