NFL Analysis
1/21/24
5 min read
San Francisco 49ers Won’t Win Super Bowl If Brock Purdy Doesn’t Play Better
The San Francisco 49ers are advancing to the NFC Championship Game for the third consecutive season.
They were the top seed in the NFC for most of the season and will now host the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2019. And as great as that feeling has to be for the 49ers and their fans, there has to be a lot of concern about Brock Purdy moving forward in the playoffs.
49ers Fortunate to Escape
Purdy's performance against the Green Bay Packers, albeit in a win, left much to be desired. The optimistic way to view that game would be to say that Purdy delivered when it mattered the most. Down 21-17 with 6:18 left in the fourth quarter, the 49ers went on a 12-play, 69-yard touchdown drive that would win the game.
Purdy made a few nice throws on that drive, including a beautiful pass to Brandon Aiyuk on a dig route on third-and-5. He threw the pass low and out of harm’s way, in a spot where only his receiver could make the catch. And on second-and-10 from the Green Bay 15-yard-line, Purdy scrambled for 9 yards. That play would lead to a Christian McCaffrey go-ahead touchdown. When the 49ers needed him to play his best, Purdy delivered.
There is something to be said for playing poorly most of the game and then rising to the occasion when your team needs you. Great quarterbacks play great when you need them. That's precisely what Purdy did on Saturday, and it's why the 49ers are advancing in the playoffs.
But the 49ers are incredibly fortunate to escape that game with a win.
Failing to Capitalize
On the game's first drive, Purdy threw a pass that should have been a pick-six by Darnell Savage.
The former first-round pick intercepted Dak Prescott on a similar throw last week and took it to the house. The pass fell incomplete this week, kicking off Purdy's rough game.
Later in the first half, Purdy overthrew a receiver again, and the ball nearly landed in the arms of Keisean Nixon. Once again, it was dropped.
Dropped interceptions happen. It’s part of the game. Defensive backs drop picks all the time, especially in the rain. And if Purdy had just had those two poor throws, it wouldn’t have been a terrible game. But he was off all game. He was missing receivers all over the field and couldn’t get into a rhythm.
Cause for Concern?
By the time the second half rolled around, it was clear that Kyle Shanahan had completely lost faith in his quarterback. San Francisco went to a conservative style of offense, and the only throws that Shanahan asked Purdy to make were short, simple passes to the line of scrimmage.
According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Purdy completed 18 passes short of 10 air yards. He was 4-10 on throws beyond 10 air yards, with his best throw coming on a rollout pass to George Kittle for a touchdown.
As the game wore on, Shanahan reigned in Purdy more and kept his job simple. He wasn’t asking him to make high-level throws or even push the ball down the field. That is usually a sign that a play-caller doesn't trust their quarterback.
To be clear, the 49ers and Purdy deserve credit for winning a game in which they did not play well. That is the sign of an outstanding team. And with either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Detroit Lions coming to town next Sunday, there is a good chance this offense gets back on track.
But it is also fair to be concerned about Purdy moving forward. He had his worst career outing in the biggest regular season game against the Baltimore Ravens. And if one or two Green Bay defenders caught passes that hit them in the hands on Saturday, the 49ers would have been upset at home by the No. 7 seed in the conference.
Confidence in Purdy Is Waning
If the 49ers want to get over the hump with this team, they are going to need Purdy to play a lot better. The box score shows a passer rating of 86.7 and him averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. By most accounts, that is a mediocre day. But for people who watched the game, it was clear he was way off for most of the night and played far worse than the numbers suggest.
There are still stretches in big games like this where the moment feels too big for Purdy. Then, there are times when he makes a play to keep a drive alive to give them a chance. But tonight, those plays didn't happen consistently.
Jordan Love and Purdy had to deal with the rain and the wind in San Francisco. The ball was hard to grip and both quarterbacks struggled to drive the ball to the sideline. But did Purdy rise up and carry his team like we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen do in the playoffs? The answer is no.
The 49ers hung around, capitalized off mistakes by the Packers, and stole a game they probably shouldn't have won. There is no shame in that. But this certainly wasn't a legacy game for Purdy despite his fans trying to make it one.
The 49ers must be excited about the win and possibly going to the Super Bowl again. But deep down, their confidence in Purdy, despite the game-winning drive, has to be waning. Does that mean he can't get the job done in San Francisco? Of course not. It’s just one game.
A strong performance next week in the NFC Championship Game will get us all arguing again about whether or not Purdy is an elite quarterback. And that’s what makes this game so much fun.
