NFL Analysis
12/19/23
5 min read
Ranking NFL’s Best, Worst Coaching Decisions From Week 15
Our look at the good and the bad coaching decisions from this past week’s games is informed by metrics such as Expected Win Probability Added (xWPA).
BEST, WORST DECISIONS OF WEEK 15
Second-worst: Colts opt for long field goal
The situation: 7:35 left in the first quarter, tie game, fourth-and-5 from the Steelers' 37-yard line
The decision: Attempt a long field goal
The result: Missed field goal, Steelers drive for a touchdown
This decision could have pulled the momentum away from the Indianapolis Colts, but fortunately, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense was again lackluster.
The SIS win probability model said, “Go for it,” with 2.8 percent xWPA on the line. That by itself does not scream “important,” but the resulting miss lost 5.3 percent of win probability. To top it off, the Steelers drove down the field and scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive.
While it did not come back to bite the Colts, risking a 56-yard field goal was not the right call. Little did they know, another important fourth-down call was on the horizon.
Second-best: Colts Learn Their Lesson
The situation: 6:21 left in the second quarter, Colts down by six, fourth-and-1 from the Steelers' 32-yard line
The decision: Go for the first down
The result: 10-yard rush, pick up the first down
Another important decision quickly followed the previous decision by the Colts: attempt a 51-yard field goal or go for it. This time, they went for it.
There was six percent xWPA on the line, and because of the rush by Trey Sermon, Indianapolis' win probability actually increased by 8.3 percent. Back-to-back incompletions eventually stalled the drive at the goal line, but the Colts learned from their first decision and kept the drive alive to put themselves in a better position to score.
Worst: Jaguars Bungle in the Jungle
The situation: 0:11 left in the second quarter, Jaguars down 10, first-and-5 from the Ravens' 5-yard line
The decision: Attempt a pass short of the end zone
The result: Fail to stop the clock, end the half without points
The Jacksonville Jaguars struggled in the first half but had a chance to put points on the board just before halftime. After a long completion to Zay Jones, Trevor Lawrence hustled everyone up to the line for what was assumed to be a spike to stop the clock.
You know what they say about assumptions, though.
Lawrence instead threw an ill-advised, short completion in-bounds, and the precious seconds ticked down to zero.
The Jaguars could have had two bites at the apple if they had spiked the ball or just called a pass play that didn’t result in a throw short of the goal line. This would have given them time to take a shot at the end zone and still have another decision to go for it or take the field goal.
Outside of the obvious math, picking up points just before halftime is a big morale boost for the team, and getting a field goal would have made it a one-score game.
.@Bengals force a turnover on downs on 4th & Inches #RuleTheJungle
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Best (and Worst): Vikings go for it in overtime
The situation Part I: 6:15 left in overtime, tie game, fourth-and-1 from the Bengals’ 42-yard line
The decision: Go for it
The result: Poor play design results in a failed tush push
The decision and the play design need to be separated on this one. The decision to go for it had the most win probability at stake of any fourth-down call of the week with a staggering 24 percent.
If the Minnesota Vikings pick up the first down, they are heavy favorites to win the game. But then came the execution.
On the previous play, it was third-and-1, and the Vikings attempted the tush push with Nick Mullens in his first start of the year. They motioned in Brandon Powell to do the pushing, and given that Powell has a generous listing (5-foot-8, 181 pounds), it went about as well as expected. Minnesota came up short. At least there was another down.
Despite Ty Chandler having a career day and T.J. Hockenson (the Vikings' usual tush-pusher) right there, Minnesota ran the exact same play on fourth down. To nobody’s surprise, it failed.
The Vikings lost 23 percent win probability with that result and ended up losing the game. Analytics strongly recommend going for it, but the play design and execution were extremely costly.
This article was written by Jeff Dean.
