Analysis
11/6/22
8 min read
NFL Week 9 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Ravens vs. Saints
Monday Night Football: Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)
Opening Spread: Saints +3.
Opening Game Total: 48.5.
Opening Team Totals: Saints (22.75), Ravens (25.75).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Saints +3.
- This line has moved down to Saints +2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Saints +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Saints +2.5.
- This total opened at 48.5 points.
- This total has remained at 48.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Saints: Out: RB Mark Ingram, WR Michael Thomas, LT Trevor Penning, CB Marshon Lattimore, CB P.J Williams, CB Bradley Roby.
Ravens: Out: RB J.K. Dobbins, WR Rashod Bateman, DT Michael Pierce, CB Kyle Fuller, S Marcus Williams. Doubtful: RB Gus Edwards, TE Mark Andrews. Questionable: Demarcus Robinson, CB Marcus Peters.
The Saints Offense vs. Ravens Defense
The Saints have a top-10 offensive line. The Ravens have a slightly below-average front. The Saints' offensive line has a moderate macro advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Saints are 3-5 against the spread this season.
- The Saints are 5-3 on overs this season.
- Saints QB Andy Dalton is 80-71-6 against the spread.
- Dalton is 81-75-1 on overs in his career.
- Saints coach Dennis Allen is 17-26-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Allen is 21-22-1 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Saints Offense
- The Saints are scoring 24.9 points per game, good for eighth in the league.
- New Orleans is ninth in the league in yards passing per game and eighth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, RB Alvin Kamara has had a massive role during the last five games with 18 or more carries in three of those five contests.
- Kamara has six or more targets in every game during that span, with a range of nine-to-11 during the last three contests.
- WR Chris Olave is 24th in the league in receptions (37), 13th in yards receiving (547), 18th in target share (26.3%) and he’s fifth in air yards share (43.8%).
- WR Jarvis Landry hasn’t suited up since Oct. 2, but he’s still listed as questionable as of Sunday morning.
- TE Juwan Johnson has four or more targets in four of the last five games.
- Per TruMedia, Olave has played 218 snaps on the perimeter and 80 in the slot.
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Ravens Defense
- The Ravens have allowed 22.9 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- Baltimore added premium linebacker Roquan Smith via trade last week.
- Per The Edge, the Ravens have allowed the 26th most yards rushing per game and the seventh most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Baltimore has given up the third most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Baltimore has given up the seventh most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the fifth most to slot receivers.
- The Ravens have allowed 25th the most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Ravens Offense vs. Saints Defense
Both of these teams have fringe top-10 lines. Neither side has a notable advantage in the trenches in this strength vs. strength matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Ravens are 4-4 against the spread this season.
- The Ravens are 3-5 on overs this season.
- Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 35-30-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jackson is 31-35 on overs in his career.
- Ravens coach John Harbaugh is 117-107-9 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Harbaugh is 113-119-1 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Ravens Offense
- The Ravens are scoring 26 points per game, good for fifth in the league.
- Baltimore is 26th in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Jackson is 12th in the league in yards rushing.
- With Dobbins out and Gus Edwards doubtful, Kenyan Drake will be on top of the Ravens' backfield this week.
- Baltimore will miss WR Rashod Bateman, who is on IR with a Lisfranc injury, and TE Mark Andrews is doubtful.
- WR Devin Duvernay has been a solid role player for Baltimore posting between 40 and 55 yards receiving in five of eight games.
- WRs Demarcus Robinson and James Proche will file in behind Duvernay.
- Promising rookie Isaiah Likely will fill in for Andrews if the Ravens' star tight end misses this contest.
- Likely was a preseason star, and he’s coming off a six-reception game with 77 yards receiving and a score last week against the Bucs.
Saints Defense
- The Saints have allowed 25 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Saints have allowed the 16th most yards rushing per game and the third-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New Orleans has given up the ninth most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Saints have given up the fifth most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- New Orleans has allowed the third-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Saints vs. Ravens
Injuries are having a major impact on both of these rosters. On the Ravens' side, their skill position groups is absolutely ravaged by injuries. Baltimore is down their top two running backs, their top wide receiver and their best overall skill position player, Andrews, is listed as doubtful. The Saints will be without Thomas and Lattimore, who have both been out for weeks.
A bet on the Saints is a bet on a well-rounded roster benefiting from one of the best home-field advantages in the sport. Dalton has been pretty solid since taking over at quarterback in early October. He hasn’t been a Bengal since 2019, but he’s rather familiar with John Harbaugh’s Ravens.
Dalton is coming off his best game as a Saint, as New Orleans shut out the Raiders 24-0 last week. That game showed this Saints' defense still has a considerable ceiling, as shutting out a team like the Raiders is no easy feat. This week, New Orleans won’t have a below-average offensive line to exploit. They will instead have to keep Jackson in the pocket. Your biggest concern with a Saints bet is Jackson is capable of carrying a below-average supporting cast like this one, and in many ways, you’re betting on Dalton against Jackson.
A bet on the Ravens is a bet on Jackson carrying an injury-ravaged offense past a talented defense in one of the tougher road venues in the sport. Jackson is one of the few quarterbacks truly capable of putting a below-average offense on their back, but this situation is a tall order. Something we’ve said a few times on betting the NFL is this isn’t the Ravens defense many of us grew up with.
The secondary still has some quality players and the addition of Smith will help, but it’s probably going to take Smith a few games to become acclimated with the new system. Your biggest concern as a Ravens' bettor is Drake, Duvernay and Likely don’t provide Jackson with enough help to get past a Saints defense that shut out the Raiders last week.
Awards Market Ramifications: Lamar Jackson is a fringe MVP contender. Chris Olave is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: This game is a tough decision in winner pools. The Monday night game is often the tiebreaker in this format. We can reasonably expect the Ravens to be the more popular selection in your standard home leagues, while this game might be more of a coin flip in more competitive winner pools. This is a game I’m going to rank as low as I reasonably can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: If the Saints were getting 3.5 points, I’d consider taking them. At +2.5, I’m going to pass here.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 27-13
Props 2022: 26-15
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