Analysis
8/15/23
8 min read
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting Odds, Tips, Picks, Strategies Preseason 2023
The NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) is the least consistent awards race. In the last decade, four quarterbacks, three running backs and three wide receivers have won OPOY.
That said, only one quarterback has won OPOY in the last six seasons, making this a race to bet on the “best” skill position player.
>> Other Awards: MVP
Given the wide field in the OPOY race, we’re going to take a look at 36 candidates in this market:
OPOY Candidates
| Ja'Marr Chase +1100 | Justin Jefferson +1300 | Christian McCaffrey +1500 |
| Nick Chubb +1700 | Tyreek Hill +2000 | Justin Fields +2000 |
| Joe Burrow +2500 | Lamar Jackson +2500 | Derrick Henry +3000 |
| Garrett Wilson +3000 | Stefon Diggs +3000 | Cooper Kupp +3000 |
| Davante Adams +3000 | Jalen Hurts +3000 | Tony Pollard +3500 |
| Patrick Mahomes +3500 | Josh Allen +3500 | Amon-Ra St. Brown +3500 |
| Bijan Robinson +3500 | CeeDee Lamb +3500 | Travis Kelce +4000 |
| Jaylen Waddle +4000 | Jonathan Taylor +4000 | Deebo Samuel +4000 |
| Justin Herbert +4500 | Breece Hall +4500 | A.J. Brown +4500 |
| Trevor Lawrence +4500 | Austin Ekeler +5000 | Saquon Barkley +5000 |
| Aaron Rodgers +5000 | Tua Tagovailoa +5000 | Chris Olave +5000 |
| DeAndre Hopkins +5000 | DK Metcalf +6000 | Jerry Jeudy +6000 |
The Favorites
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals +1100
Ja’Marr Chase is among the premier wide receivers in football, and he led the league in targets per game last year. He is one of the few pass catchers who could lead the NFL in yards receiving and receiving touchdowns. I bet on Chase at +1400 when this market opened before he became the favorite.
Justin Jefferson, Vikings +1300
Justin Jefferson was last year’s OPOY winner, and he’s had a historic start to his career. Marshall Faulk, who won the OPOY three years in a row, is the last back-to-back winner.
Even if Jefferson approaches his 1,809 yards receiving mark from last year, voter fatigue is a unique challenge he faces.
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers +1500
Christian McCaffrey probably won’t lead the league in yards rushing, but he could lead all running backs in touchdowns and/or total yards. In fact, he can achieve 1,000 yards on the ground and in the air. You could argue McCaffrey has the most paths to OPOY contention.
The Contenders
Nick Chubb, Browns +1700
Nick Chubb’s clearest path to winning OPOY is leading the league in rushing while being near the top in rushing touchdowns. Those are both realistic outcomes, but you’re getting Chubb at a bad number now; he opened at +4000.
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins +2000
Tyreek Hill’s 1,710 yards receiving mark from last year has been slightly overlooked because of Jefferson’s season. Considering that Miami improved this offseason, you could argue Hill should be closer to +1500.
Justin Fields, Bears +2000
I would have considered an OPOY bet on Justin Fields if he was a long shot. Considering the odds on several MVP-caliber quarterbacks, Fields is overpriced.
Joe Burrow, Bengals +2500
Occasionally, the MVP-winning quarterback double dips as the OPOY winner, like Matt Ryan in 2016. Sometimes, one quarterback wins the MVP, while another wins the OPOY. Joe Burrow is far from a cross-off in either market, but other similarly talented candidates are listed at far more appealing odds.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens +2500
The main difference between betting on Lamar Jackson and Burrow to win OPOY is that Burrow is +700 in MVP markets while Jackson is +1500. Both are overpriced in this market considering the odds of several other quarterbacks.
The Mid-Range Long Shots
Derrick Henry, Titans +3000
Derrick Henry won the OPOY in 2020, and he’s always lived to lead the league in rushing.
Garrett Wilson, Jets +3000
To say that Garrett Wilson is getting a quarterback upgrade with Aaron Rodgers is an understatement. That said, it might interest you that, even under Rodgers, no Packers wide receiver has ever won the OPOY.
Stefon Diggs, Bills +3000
If you’re considering an OPOY bet on Stefon Diggs, ask yourself, “What makes this the year he rises to the top?” We don’t have a great answer to that question.
Cooper Kupp, Rams +3000
Cooper Kupp won the OPOY two years ago, but team success could be a negative factor for him this season.
Davante Adams, Raiders +3000
Davante Adams has never won OPOY, making it hard to envision him doing it on this Raiders team with Jimmy Garoppolo.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles +3000
Jalen Hurts is a fascinating candidate because betting markets had him in a position to “double dip” when he was the late-season MVP leader last year. If you’re going to bet on Hurts in the MVP race, you should also consider betting on him to win OPOY.
Tony Pollard, Cowboys +3500
For a running back to win OPOY, he needs to lead his position in yards rushing, total yards or touchdowns. If you think Tony Pollard can lead the league in any of those categories, +3500 is a doable price.
Pollard is a talented player, but we’ve never seen him handle massive volume throughout a season. That’s a significant factor for a running back in the OPOY race.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs +3500
Patrick Mahomes is a two-time MVP winner who will almost certainly have to win the MVP also to win OPOY. He won both in 2018, so it’s possible, but voter fatigue could be an issue.
Josh Allen, Bills +3500
Josh Allen probably needs to win the MVP award to take down the OPOY. However, because Allen is a perennial contender who hasn’t won a major award, he has more paths to winning the OPOY than Mahomes does.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions +3500
Amon-Ra St. Brown is an interesting OPOY candidate: He’s the standalone top option in a high-performing offense. We’ve seen him produce at a high level, and there is a logical path to improvement in his third season.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons +3500
Bijan Robinson is the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite for a reason, but expecting him to be the league’s best running back is a big ask.
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys +3500
Similar to Diggs, what would make this the year that CeeDee Lamb outperforms all other wide receivers?
>> READ: Recapping Last Year’s OPOY Race
The Long Shots
Travis Kelce, Chiefs +4000
If Travis Kelce hasn’t won the OPOY yet, it’s hard to see his age-34 season being the one where he breaks through.
Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins +4000
If Hill misses significant time, Jaylen Waddle would become a fascinating OPOY target at long odds. As things stand, it’s hard to see Waddle getting enough volume to be the top performing receiver in the league.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts +4000
Jonathan Taylor was the OPOY runner-up two years ago, but team success will likely be an obstacle this season.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers +4000
Deebo Samuel is a dynamic talent, but San Francisco has a ton of target competition.
Justin Herbert, Chargers +4500
Justin Herbert is an interesting OPOY long shot. He could lead the league in passing touchdowns and/or yards while not winning his division. That creates a path where someone else wins MVP but Herbert wins OPOY.
Breece Hall, Jets +4500
The signing of Dalvin Cook likely means Breece Hall doesn’t see enough volume to be the top producer at running back.
A.J. Brown, Eagles +4500
A.J. Brown is not drawing dead at leading all wide receivers in touchdowns, which means he’s not an OPOY cross-off.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars +4500
If Trevor Lawrence contends in the MVP race, team success will be his ally. With that in mind, for Lawrence to win the OPOY, he might also have to take home the MVP. As we’ve seen in recent years, even if Lawrence does win the MVP, there’s no guarantee he double dips as the OPOY.
The Deep Long Shots
Austin Ekeler, Chargers +5000
Like other fantasy stars such as Diggs and Adams, the OPOY question with Austin Ekeler is: If he hasn’t won yet given what he’s done, why is this the year?
Saquon Barkley, Giants +5000
Team success is concerning for the Giants, given their schedule. However, if New York makes the playoffs again, it’s easy to see Saquon Barkley being the most productive running back in the league.
Aaron Rodgers, Jets +5000
Rodgers is a four-time MVP, meaning he’ll likely have to win MVP to win OPOY.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins +5000
Like Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa is on a short list of players who could lead the league in passing touchdowns or yards. Also like Herbert, Tagovailoa could do that without leading his team to a division title.
Chris Olave, Saints +5000
I bet on Chris Olave to win OPOY at 75-1 and again at 70-1 months ago. Given the Saints’ easy schedule, he’s still doable at 50-1 type odds, but it’s much thinner at significantly worse odds.
DeAndre Hopkins, Titans +5000
It’s challenging to envision DeAndre Hopkins finishing the season as the NFL’s most productive wide receiver.
DK Metcalf, Seahawks +6000
DK Metcalf is a fascinating deep long shot. He’s a freak athlete due for positive touchdown regression that will play for a competitive Seahawks team. His path to the OPOY is narrow, but it exists.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos +6000
I believe Russell Wilson will have a bounce-back year, and Jerry Jeudy will be the primary beneficiary. Even in that scenario, it's hard to see Jeudy finishing as the league’s most productive receiver.
OPOY Predictions
Ryan’s OPOY Pick: Chase
Ryan’s Favorite Long Shot: St. Brown
Ryan has covered NFL awards betting markets since 2020 for Establish the Run. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook. Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
