Analysis
8/14/23
9 min read
NFL MVP Betting Odds, Tips, Picks, Strategies Preseason 2023
The NFL MVP is a quarterback award, as 15 of the last 16 winners were signal-callers. When considering a bet in this market, first ask yourself two questions about each quarterback:
- Can they lead an elite offense?
- Can their team finish the year as the No. 1 seed in their conference?
If you can answer “yes” to at least one of those questions, that quarterback is worth consideration. If you can’t, they are not.
There’s more to betting in this market than those two conditions, but that’s where you should start. With that in mind, let’s take a look at 30 different quarterbacks in the MVP market:
MVP Odds for Quarterbacks
| Patrick Mahomes +600 | Joe Burrow +700 | Josh Allen +700 |
| Justin Herbert +1000 | Jalen Hurts +1100 | Trevor Lawrence +1500 |
| Lamar Jackson +1500 | Aaron Rodgers +1600 | Justin Fields +2000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa +2200 | Dak Prescott +2200 | Deshaun Watson +3000 |
| Jared Goff +4000 | Geno Smith +4000 | Russell Wilson +4500 |
| Derek Carr +5000 | Kirk Cousins +5000 | Daniel Jones +5000 |
| Brock Purdy +5000 | Trey Lance +5000 | Kenny Pickett +5000 |
| Jordan Love +6000 | Matthew Stafford +6000 | Mac Jones +6500 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo +8000 | Ryan Tannehill +10000 | Sam Howell +10000 |
| Kyler Murray +15000 | Baker Mayfield +15000 | Desmond Ridder +15000 |
The Favorites
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs +600
Patrick Mahomes is already a two-time MVP and his Chiefs are the NFL’s measuring stick. Even if Mahomes doesn’t win this race, he’ll be in the mix unless he misses time. Of all the contenders, Mahomes’ odds will dip the least if the Chiefs start slow.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals +700
This could be Joe Burrow’s best offensive supporting cast in his career. Week 17’s bout between Burrow’s Bengals and Mahomes’ Chiefs could determine this year’s MVP. Given his current odds, there’s no reason to bet on Burrow until there is more clarity on his calf injury.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills +700
Josh Allen is one of the few quarterbacks that can carry an offense and he’s become a perennial contender in this race. His biggest issue is the Jets and Dolphins have closed, if not eliminated, the talent gap with Buffalo. Additionally, the conference is loaded with premium quarterbacks on contending teams, which is a problem for all AFC quarterbacks.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers +1000
After an injury-riddled 2022 campaign, Justin Herbert is a positive regression candidate for both touchdowns and yards passing. He can be productive enough to win this race, but the Chargers have a difficult path to the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles +1100
Jalen Hurts had a late lead in last year’s race until he was sidelined for two games with a shoulder injury. We know he can contend and Philadelphia is one of the top teams in the NFC. The Eagles open the season with their softest schedule stretch of the year. If you’re going to bet on Hurts, you should consider doing so before opening day.
Contenders
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars +1500
Trevor Lawrence is a historic quarterback prospect that played his best football down the stretch last season. The Jaguars are a contender, and Lawrence is on the rise. A fast 3-1 or better start is very achievable for Jacksonville.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens +1500
The Ravens are one of the most consistent teams in the league, but they are undergoing considerable change on offense. Lamar Jackson has already won an MVP, so we know he can do it. He’ll open the year hosting the very beatable Texans.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets +1600
Aaron Rodgers is a year removed from winning back-to-back MVPs. Now that he’s a Jet, his biggest obstacle to contention is the competition in the AFC. The Jets have a difficult early schedule, facing the Bills, Cowboys and Chiefs in their first four games.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears +2000
The Bears finished with the worst record in the league last year, and Justin Fields hasn’t surpassed 2,250 yards passing in a season. Fields is overpriced considering how big of a turnaround both he and the Bears would need for him to contend in this race.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins +2200
Tua Tagovailoa has injury concerns, but he’s on the short list of players that could lead the league in touchdown passes. Just like every AFC quarterback, there is a ton of competition for the top seed in the conference, but Miami has a path.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys +2200
Dak Prescott is an interesting candidate because he’s had borderline MVP production in the past and Dallas is one of the primary contenders in the NFC. Mike Tannenbaum likes Prescott in this race, and Ryan Reynolds bet on Prescott when this market opened.
Mid-Range Long Shots
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns +3000
Deshaun Watson has provided MVP-caliber production in the past, but it’s hard to see Cleveland as the AFC’s best team. Additionally, Watson’s off-field issues could be a negative for some award voters.
Jared Goff, Detriot Lions +4000
The Lions are the trendy, but logical team to take a big step forward this season. Jared Goff has headlined an elite team and been in the MVP mix during his time with the Rams. If you’re looking for a long shot, Goff has a very realistic path in this race.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks +4000
Geno Smith has a lot of similarities to Goff, as Seattle is well-positioned to improve in a weak NFC. Smith was a top-10 performer last season, but he’s been far less consistent than Goff to date. That said, Smith is another long shot with a great supporting cast.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos +4500
We expect a bounce-back year from Russell Wilson, but it’s hard to see Denver rising to the top of a crowded AFC.
Long Shots
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings +5000
Kirk Cousins has produced at a borderline-MVP level in the past and his Vikings won 13 games last year. Minnesota also went 11-0 in one-score games and is therefore a natural candidate for negative regression. That said, Cousins is in a contract year and he has an excellent supporting cast on offense. Cousins is a long shot with a realistic path.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants +5000
Daniel Jones turned his career around last season and the Giants improved his supporting cast this offseason. That said, the Giants have a 7.5-game win total. Jones will have to take a massive step forward to contend.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints +5000
New Orleans' league-easiest schedule gives Derek Carr a path in this race. However, Carr would need to have a career year to be productive enough to win the MVP.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers +5000
The 49ers are a contender and Purdy’s offense scored at least 33 points in five of his six games after taking over at quarterback last year. Still, Purdy’s personal production would have to take a big step forward to reach MVP levels.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers +5000
At this stage, Trey Lance would need an injury setback from Purdy to open the year as the 49ers' starter.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers +5000
Pittsburgh is improving and Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. We expect Kenny Pickett to be better, but not good enough to be in the MVP conversation.
Want to Learn More About the MVP Market? Take a Look Back at Last Year's Race.
Deep Long Shots
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers +6000
If Green Bay is going to exceed expectations, it is likely because of their defense. Expecting MVP-caliber production from Jordan Love is a big ask.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams +6000
Matthew Stafford is an MVP-caliber quarterback on a team that was a contender just two years ago. The problem is the Rams' roster is filled with a ton of unknowns.
Mac Jones, New England Patriots +6500
It’s going to take a monumental turnaround in New England for Mac Jones to contend in this race.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders +8000
Jimmy Garoppolo has played one full season since he joined the 49ers in 2017. Now that Garoppolo is the man in Vegas, it’s hard to see him leading an elite offense or a contending team.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans +10000
Ryan Tannehill has led the Titans to the top seed in the conference before, but MVP-caliber production is a big ask.
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders +10000
With new ownership in tow, Washington looks closer to hitting the reset button than contending in a difficult NFC East.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals +15000
Kyler Murray is expected to miss considerable time, making him a cross-off.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +15000
If you’re bullish on Baker Mayfield, he’s a more realistic Comeback Player of the Year contender.
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons +15000
The Falcons have an easy schedule and a talented roster. If you’re going to bet on a very deep long shot in this race, Desmond Ridder or Tannehill make the most sense.
MVP Odds for Non-Quarterbacks
Former Vikings running back Adrian Pederson is the last non-quarterback to win the NFL MVP back in 2012. Any non-quarterback will need to have a historic season to even have a shot in this race. Below you’ll find the top-six options in this year’s race that do not play quarterback.
| Christian McCaffrey +8000 | Justin Jefferson +10000 | Cooper Kupp +10000 |
| Ja'Marr Chase +15000 | Tyreek Hill +15000 | Micah Parsons +15000 |
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers +8000
Christian McCaffrey will likely need 1,000 yards on the ground and as a receiver while the 49ers contend in the NFC. That’s all possible, but even that may not be enough in this quarterback-centric race.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings +10000
The question you have to ask yourself is if Justin Jefferson didn’t win last year, what will he have to do to win this year?
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams +10000
Cooper Kupp received an MVP vote two years ago, but team success could be a major problem for his candidacy this year.
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals +10000
Ja'Marr Chase is the Offensive Player of the Year favorite at most sportsbooks. A complication for Chase in this race is that Tom Brady won the MVP over Randy Moss in 2007. If Chase has a monster year, Burrow likely does too.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins +15000
Similar to Jefferson, Tyreek Hill will need to improve upon his career year last season to contend.
Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys +15000
Lawrence Taylor was the last defender to win the MVP back in 1986. Micah Parsons is arguably the closest thing the league has had to Taylor since the former Giants great retired.
Best Bets
MVP Pick: Burrow
Favorite Contender: Prescott
Favorite Longshot: Goff
Ryan Reynolds has covered NFL awards betting markets since 2020 for Establish the Run.
Follow Reynolds @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
