Analysis
7/22/23
6 min read
Looking Back at the 2022 NFL MVP Race
Betting in an NFL awards market differs from betting in other futures markets because voters determine the winner in awards races. In most futures markets, you’re betting on or, in some cases, against a definitive outcome.
For instance, if you bet on the Super Bowl winner this year, there will not be any questions about which team wins that game. That’s not how things work in awards markets.
In awards markets, who wins is determined by who 50 individuals vote for. What you’re betting on in an awards market is who someone else thinks should win. It requires an entirely different process from any other betting market.
That’s why we will look back at each awards race from last season, so we can try to see things more from a voter’s perspective than from our own.
Others in Series: CPOY | OROY | DROY | OPOY | DPOY | COY
The MVP Race
The NFL MVP race is driven by quarterbacks. Josh Allen (+700) entered the 2022 season as the favorite, while Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady slightly trailed with +800 odds. Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers rounded out the top five with +1000 odds.
Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson came next with +1200 odds, while Dak Prescott (+1600) was the other perennial contender entering the season. Defending Super Bowl champion Matthew Stafford (+1400) rounded out the mid-range long shots heading into opening day.
Kirk Cousins entered the season with +4000 odds, while Tua Tagovailoa came in at +5000. Trevor Lawrence was an interesting deep longshot with +8000 odds.
Jalen Hurts was down from +4000 odds in the spring into the +2500 range entering opening day.
Early Season
The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills got off to 3-1 starts, pushing Allen and Mahomes further toward the front of MVP betting markets in the +400 range.
Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Rodgers’ Green Bay Packers started slow offensively and never recovered. Two of the top five contenders, with a total of seven MVPs between them, were effectively already out of the race through the first quarter of the season.
Herbert (+2000) also fell behind early, starting 2-2 while suffering a rib cartilage injury in Week 3 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Like Brady and Rodgers, Herbert was a relative non-factor in the MVP race despite entering the year as a top-five contender. Prescott suffered an opening-day injury that effectively eliminated him from MVP contention as well.
Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals started 0-2, pushing him out of early MVP contention.
Cousins (+2200) took a jump in MVP betting markets behind the Minnesota Vikings' 3-1 start. But Hurts (+1200) took the biggest step forward as the Philadelphia Eagles went 4-0 during the first quarter of the season.
Midseason
Our awards panelists collectively voted for three quarterbacks at the midseason point. Hurts led with three votes, while Mahomes received two and Allen ended up with one.
Hurts was headlining the undefeated Eagles with 12 passing touchdowns and another six on the ground. Mahomes led the league in passing touchdowns with 21 for the 6-2 Chiefs through the first nine weeks. Allen’s Bills were also 6-2, with a Week 6 win over Kansas City. Allen was second in the league in passing touchdowns (19) and second among quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns (4).
Burrow and, to a lesser extent, Jackson were the biggest threats outside of the top three options through the halfway point. Cousins also had a path because his Vikings were 7-1, but his production was behind the rest of the primary contenders.
Second Half of the Season
Allen began to slip in the MVP race after an overtime loss to the Vikings in Week 10 when he injured his throwing elbow. He played through it, and Buffalo even finished with a seven-game winning streak from this point forward, keeping him in semi-contention. But Allen’s production took a consistent dip through the rest of the season.
Jackson suffered a knee injury that cost him multiple games. Tagovailoa had some MVP-caliber metrics deep into the year, but injuries cost him enough that he never truly exceeded mid-range long-shot odds in MVP betting markets.
Mahomes continued to carry a Chiefs offense that was without a difference-making skill position player outside of TE Travis Kelce. In some ways, Mahomes was having his best season despite already being a former MVP winner. Mahomes and Hurts flipped-flopped for the lead in the MVP race a few times, though Hurts took a multi-week lead in MVP betting markets in the second half of the season. That ended when Hurts suffered a throwing shoulder injury in Week 15 that cost him two games.
Burrow, just like he did the year before, surged in the second half as his Bengals finished the season with an eight-game winning streak. Burrow had a narrow path late in the year with +600 odds entering a Week 17 contest with the Bills, where Allen was still hanging around with +800 odds. The winner of that game, especially if it was high-scoring, could have challenged Mahomes in the MVP race. Unfortunately, the scary Damar Hamlin situation led to the contest being canceled.
The Last Week of the Regular Season
The injury to Hurts and the cancellation of the Bills vs. Bengals game made Mahomes the standalone MVP favorite with -1000 odds heading into the regular-season finale. Due to those circumstances, the race was, for all intents and purposes, already decided.
The Vote
MVP voting:
- Patrick Mahomes: 48
- Jalen Hurts: 1
- Josh Allen: 1— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) February 10, 2023
Mahomes ran away with the MVP vote, as expected. The Chiefs finished as the top seed in the AFC with a 14-3 record. Mahomes led the league in passing touchdowns (41), QBR (77.6) and he was second in rating (105.2). While Mahomes' primary competition fell off in a variety of ways down the stretch, he had an MVP-caliber season with the worst supporting cast of his career.
Allen received a vote, while Burrow did not. They tied for second in the league with 35 passing touchdowns despite playing only 16 games, but the Bills finished 13-3 to the Bengals 12-4.
Wide receivers don’t win the NFL MVP award, but Cooper Kupp received a vote in 2021, and Justin Jefferson was a finalist last season behind a historic season.
Hurts received a single vote, despite missing two games due to injury. Hurts was the slight favorite over Mahomes in betting markets before the injury. Mahomes may have still won, but this would have been a much more interesting race if Hurts hadn't missed any time.
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