Fantasy
11/29/23
8 min read
2023 Fantasy Football Week 13 Projections: Chargers Duo Ready to Erupt
Using machine learning, I’ve built a model that projects player usage and fantasy performance week to week. Below, you can find the model’s 2023 Week 12 projections. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, as well as their projected points in half-PPR leagues and PPR leagues and their projected rank.
Write-ups for interesting and notable players will be found under each position.
Disclaimer: I wouldn’t recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. Though this model can aid in betting decision-making, it wasn’t modeled with that in mind.
Week 13 Projections
Quarterbacks
| Player | Att | Comp | PsYds | PsTD | Rush | RshYds | RshTDs | FFPTs | Rank |
| Jalen Hurts | 32 | 22 | 224 | 1.6 | 10 | 43 | 0.5 | 21.1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 39 | 26 | 266 | 2.3 | 4 | 25 | 0.1 | 20.8 | 2 |
| CJ Stroud | 33 | 22 | 290 | 2.0 | 4 | 26 | 0.2 | 20.6 | 3 |
| Dak Prescott | 34 | 24 | 281 | 2.1 | 2 | 7 | 0.2 | 19.6 | 4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 33 | 23 | 278 | 1.9 | 2 | 7 | 0.2 | 19.0 | 5 |
| Sam Howell | 43 | 29 | 287 | 1.9 | 3 | 19 | 0.1 | 18.8 | 6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 34 | 22 | 273 | 1.7 | 4 | 24 | 0.1 | 18.7 | 7 |
| Justin Herbert | 36 | 22 | 233 | 2.0 | 4 | 15 | 0.1 | 18.3 | 8 |
| Russell Wilson | 31 | 23 | 228 | 2.0 | 4 | 21 | 0.1 | 18.2 | 9 |
| Jared Goff | 36 | 24 | 263 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 0.1 | 16.4 | 10 |
| Kyler Murray | 30 | 18 | 206 | 1.0 | 6 | 34 | 0.4 | 16.1 | 11 |
| Baker Mayfield | 33 | 21 | 225 | 1.8 | 3 | 10 | 0.1 | 16.1 | 12 |
| Brock Purdy | 27 | 20 | 247 | 1.6 | 3 | 4 | 0.1 | 15.9 | 13 |
| Matthew Stafford | 36 | 23 | 248 | 1.8 | 1 | 3 | 0.1 | 15.8 | 14 |
| Jordan Love | 36 | 23 | 244 | 1.5 | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | 16.3 | 15 |
| Kenny Pickett | 35 | 21 | 238 | 1.4 | 2 | 7 | 0.3 | 15.3 | 16 |
| Bryce Young | 39 | 23 | 221 | 1.6 | 3 | 19 | 0.1 | 15.3 | 17 |
| Jake Browning | 36 | 24 | 245 | 1.4 | 2 | 10 | 0.1 | 15.0 | 18 |
| Geno Smith | 32 | 21 | 215 | 1.5 | 1 | 7 | 0.2 | 14.7 | 20 |
| Gardner Minshew | 32 | 19 | 225 | 1.3 | 2 | 11 | 0.1 | 14.4 | 19 |
| Derek Carr | 34 | 22 | 218 | 1.6 | 2 | 5 | 0.1 | 14.1 | 22 |
| Desmond Ridder | 33 | 21 | 188 | 1.6 | 3 | 13 | 0.1 | 14.1 | 21 |
| Will Levis | 33 | 19 | 224 | 1.3 | 3 | 8 | 0.2 | 13.9 | 23 |
| Mac Jones | 32 | 19 | 188 | 1.5 | 2 | 7 | 0.1 | 13.0 | 24 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 35 | 20 | 181 | 1.2 | 3 | 14 | 0.2 | 12.6 | 25 |
| Tim Boyle | 30 | 19 | 147 | 1.1 | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | 10.4 | 26 |
C.J. Stroud (QB3)
During the past month, C.J. Stroud has demonstrated exceptional efficiency. His 10.3 yards per attempt ranks second only to Brock Purdy. Averaging the second-most pass attempts per game at 38.5, the Houston Texans rookie finds himself in the MVP conversation and in the discussion for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
There are plenty of quality teams on bye this week; perhaps that's why the 45-point total between Denver and Houston is the fourth-highest on the slate. This game has all the makings of a shootout because both signal callers lead highly efficient offenses. Stroud continues to be a must-start in Week 13.
Justin Herbert (QB8)
Justin Herbert's 2023 season hasn't lived up to expectations, and Los Angeles Chargers coach Brandon Staley is feeling the pressure. Facing one of the NFL's weaker teams, the New England Patriots, Staley might be fighting to secure his job, signaling an aggressive approach for the Chargers.
Despite a mid-QB1 projection, Herbert presents a favorable opportunity. He ranks as the QB4 in points per game but has struggled with consistency. New England's average pass defense positions Herbert as an average QB1 for Week 13.
Russell Wilson (QB10)
Star quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have byes, so Russell Wilson has an opportunity for his fourth QB1 finish of the season. This matchup, much like Stroud’s, sets the stage for a potential shootout. The Denver Broncos will be pressed to keep pace with the red-hot Texans' offense.
Wilson, boasting the fifth-highest passer rating and the best TD/INT ratio among all quarterbacks this season, aims to showcase his efficiency. Remarkably, Wilson has not thrown an interception since Week 6. With a focus on careful play, Wilson is poised for a relatively safe game, securing a low-end QB1 finish.
Wide Receivers
| Player | Targets | Rec | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | PPR | Rank |
| Keenan Allen | 13 | 9 | 102 | 0.6 | 18.7 | 23.5 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 11 | 8 | 102 | 0.5 | 17.7 | 21.7 | 2 |
| Tyreek Hill | 12 | 8 | 98 | 0.6 | 17.6 | 21.8 | 3 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 10 | 7 | 82 | 0.6 | 15.9 | 19.4 | 4 |
| A.J. Brown | 9 | 6 | 70 | 0.5 | 13.1 | 16.2 | 5 |
| Mike Evans | 9 | 5 | 74 | 0.5 | 13.0 | 15.5 | 6 |
| Chris Olave | 12 | 6 | 68 | 0.5 | 12.9 | 16.1 | 7 |
| Cooper Kupp | 9 | 5 | 76 | 0.4 | 12.8 | 15.2 | 8 |
| Courtland Sutton | 8 | 5 | 61 | 0.7 | 12.7 | 15.4 | 9 |
| Nico Collins | 8 | 5 | 78 | 0.4 | 12.7 | 15.3 | 10 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 5 | 77 | 0.4 | 12.6 | 15.2 | 11 |
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 5 | 76 | 0.4 | 12.6 | 14.9 | 12 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 4 | 69 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 14.7 | 13 |
| Tank Dell | 8 | 5 | 70 | 0.5 | 12.5 | 15.1 | 14 |
| Drake London | 9 | 6 | 68 | 0.4 | 12.2 | 15.5 | 15 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 11 | 6 | 66 | 0.4 | 12.2 | 15.4 | 16 |
| Adam Thielen | 10 | 6 | 63 | 0.4 | 12.2 | 15.4 | 17 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9 | 5 | 71 | 0.4 | 12.1 | 14.7 | 18 |
| DK Metcalf | 9 | 5 | 70 | 0.5 | 12.1 | 14.4 | 19 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 4 | 69 | 0.5 | 11.8 | 13.9 | 20 |
| Terry McLaurin | 9 | 6 | 62 | 0.4 | 11.6 | 14.8 | 21 |
| Rashee Rice | 7 | 5 | 63 | 0.4 | 11.2 | 13.7 | 22 |
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 4 | 65 | 0.4 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 23 |
| Diontae Johnson | 9 | 5 | 66 | 0.3 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 24 |
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 5 | 60 | 0.4 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 25 |
| Jayden Reed | 7 | 5 | 60 | 0.4 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 26 |
| Amari Cooper | 8 | 5 | 56 | 0.4 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 27 |
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 4 | 60 | 0.4 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 28 |
| Tyler Lockett | 7 | 5 | 53 | 0.5 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 29 |
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 5 | 51 | 0.4 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 30 |
| Romeo Doubs | 6 | 4 | 46 | 0.5 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 31 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 4 | 53 | 0.3 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 32 |
| George Pickens | 7 | 3 | 49 | 0.3 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 33 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 3 | 54 | 0.3 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 34 |
| Josh Downs | 7 | 4 | 49 | 0.3 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 35 |
| Chris Godwin | 7 | 4 | 42 | 0.3 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 36 |
| Tutu Atwell | 6 | 4 | 45 | 0.3 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 37 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 3 | 31 | 0.2 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 38 |
| Christian Watson | 7 | 4 | 47 | 0.3 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 39 |
| Marquise Brown | 7 | 3 | 48 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 40 |
| Demario Douglas | 6 | 4 | 43 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 41 |
| Curtis Samuel | 6 | 4 | 41 | 0.3 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 42 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 4 | 41 | 0.3 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 43 |
| Tyler Boyd | 7 | 4 | 36 | 0.3 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 44 |
| Elijah Moore | 7 | 4 | 36 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 45 |
| Jahan Dotson | 6 | 4 | 35 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 46 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 3 | 43 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 47 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 8 | 4 | 41 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 48 |
| Trey Palmer | 4 | 3 | 24 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 49 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 3 | 43 | 0.1 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 50 |
| Rondale Moore | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0.1 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 51 |
| Justin Watson | 7 | 4 | 36 | 0.1 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 52 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 3 | 38 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 53 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 3 | 39 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 54 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 2 | 29 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 55 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 2 | 26 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 56 |
Keenan Allen (WR1)
Amid injuries plaguing the Chargers' offense, Keenan Allen has delivered a stellar performance with double-digit receptions and more than 100 yards in three consecutive games. During this stretch, he claims the WR1 position, averaging nearly four points more than the next-highest wideout, CeeDee Lamb.
A few more factors play in his favor. The Chargers confront one of the league's struggling teams, and Staley is fighting for job security. So expect Allen to maintain his exceptional involvement and receive substantial usage, especially with his teammates sidelined due to injuries.
Chris Olave (WR7)
Pending his availability from concussion protocol, Chris Olave is poised for a substantial week. The New Orleans Saints are missing WR Michael Thomas and likely Rashid Shaheed, so Olave is anticipated to claim an impressive 32 percent team target share. Teammates Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill also should see notable usage upticks.
Although projected for 12 targets, Olave’s estimated receptions are six. While the increased usage is advantageous in PPR formats, Olave's inefficiency and limited touchdowns have impacted his overall season-long performance. Despite the volatility, he can be trusted as a low-end WR1.
Michael Pittman (WR16)
Benefiting from a significant 31.7 percent target share from QB Gardner Minshew, Michael Pittman has asserted himself as a key target in the Indianapolis Colts' offense. To put this into perspective, such a share would rank fourth behind Allen, Tyreek Hill and Garrett Wilson.
However, Pittman's challenge lies in the scarcity of touchdowns, having scored only three this season. RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to be absent in Week 13, meaning the Colts could struggle to move the ball, diminishing Pittman's red zone chances. As a result, he stands as a mid-range WR2 this week.
Running Backs
| Player | Rushes | RushYds | RushTDs | Targ. | Rec. | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | PPR | Rank |
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 82 | 0.9 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 0.1 | 19.7 | 21.6 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 21 | 99 | 0.7 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 0.1 | 19.5 | 21.1 | 2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 16 | 53 | 0.5 | 6 | 3 | 38 | 0.3 | 15.9 | 17.6 | 3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 55 | 0.5 | 6 | 4 | 37 | 0.3 | 15.8 | 18.0 | 4 |
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 77 | 0.8 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0.1 | 15.7 | 16.7 | 5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 43 | 0.4 | 7 | 5 | 44 | 0.3 | 15.4 | 18.1 | 6 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 14 | 52 | 0.5 | 6 | 4 | 43 | 0.2 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 7 |
| Bijan Robinson | 13 | 68 | 0.3 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 0.3 | 14.7 | 16.4 | 8 |
| D'Andre Swift | 17 | 78 | 0.3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0.2 | 14.6 | 16.3 | 9 |
| Joe Mixon | 17 | 64 | 0.4 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0.1 | 14.3 | 16.0 | 10 |
| Zack Moss | 18 | 70 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 11 |
| Rachaad White | 16 | 59 | 0.6 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0.1 | 14.2 | 15.7 | 12 |
| Breece Hall | 19 | 62 | 0.5 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0.1 | 14.2 | 15.8 | 13 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 16 | 80 | 0.4 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0.1 | 13.7 | 14.9 | 14 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 16 | 75 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0.1 | 13.5 | 15.0 | 15 |
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 68 | 0.5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0.1 | 13.4 | 14.6 | 16 |
| Raheem Mostert | 12 | 64 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 17 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 17 | 68 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0.1 | 12.5 | 13.7 | 18 |
| David Montgomery | 17 | 76 | 0.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 19 |
| A.J. Dillon | 13 | 47 | 0.4 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 0.1 | 12.2 | 13.9 | 20 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 49 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 0.1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 21 |
| Kyren Williams | 11 | 42 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0.1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 22 |
| Javonte Williams | 14 | 49 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0.3 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 23 |
| James Conner | 15 | 71 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 24 |
| Najee Harris | 11 | 43 | 0.6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0.2 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 25 |
| Devon Achane | 8 | 46 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0.2 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 26 |
| Devin Singletary | 12 | 57 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 27 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 30 | 0.3 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 28 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 13 | 39 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0.1 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 29 |
| Jerome Ford | 10 | 38 | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 30 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 44 | 0.3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0.1 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 31 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | 37 | 0.3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0.1 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 32 |
| Royce Freeman | 11 | 42 | 0.4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 33 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 15 | 0.1 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 34 |
| Kareem Hunt | 9 | 30 | 0.3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 35 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 9 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 36 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 14 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 0.1 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 37 |
| Dameon Pierce | 7 | 26 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 38 |
Zack Moss (RB11)
Taylor is expected to be sidelined for the next few weeks, which puts the Colts' offense in a challenging situation. However, the primary beneficiary of Taylor's absence is anticipated to be Zack Moss.
When Taylor was unavailable earlier this season, Moss emerged as a formidable running back, ranking as the RB4 in points per game. Projected to command around two-thirds of the Colts' rushing attempts, Moss is poised to operate efficiently, presenting himself as a volatile RB2 with the potential for RB1 upside.
>> READ: How To Handle Zack Moss This Week
Alvin Kamara (RB6)
Given the significant injuries to the Saints' offensive weapons, Alvin Kamara is expected to experience a surge in usage. While Kamara has seen a decrease in targets, the absence of key teammates like Thomas, Shaheed and potentially Olave could lead to Kamara returning to elite levels of receiving involvement.
With this increased role, Kamara becomes a must-start fantasy option, boasting overall RB1 upside.
Raheem Mostert (RB17), De'von achane (RB26)
De'Von Achane is anticipated to return in Week 13. However, his last game saw minimal production with only 1.5 HPPR fantasy points on two touches. Factors such as the risk of re-injury, the shared workload with Raheem Mostert and a matchup against one of the weakest pass defenses in the NFL suggest the running back duo might not have high ceilings.
The best-case scenario for Mostert and Achane is one where the Miami Dolphins secure an early lead, prompting the team to rely on the running back committee to control the clock. However, with a split in carries, it remains challenging for both players to achieve top-12 fantasy rankings despite being elite options without the other.
Tight Ends
| Player | Targets | Rec | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | FPPR | Rank |
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 7 | 62 | 0.7 | 14.0 | 17.4 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 6 | 5 | 67 | 0.4 | 11.8 | 14.3 | 2 |
| Taysom Hill* | 4 | 3 | 24 | 0.3 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 3 |
| Sam LaPorta | 6 | 5 | 44 | 0.4 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 4 |
| David Njoku | 9 | 5 | 47 | 0.3 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 5 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 3 | 38 | 0.5 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 6 |
| Trey McBride | 6 | 5 | 48 | 0.2 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 7 |
| Evan Engram | 7 | 5 | 43 | 0.2 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 8 |
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 4 | 42 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 9 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0.3 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 10 |
| Logan Thomas | 6 | 4 | 35 | 0.4 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 11 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0.4 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 12 |
| Durham Smythe | 5 | 3 | 31 | 0.3 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 13 |
| Juwan Johnson | 6 | 3 | 29 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 14 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 15 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 5 | 3 | 28 | 0.2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 16 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0.3 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 17 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0.2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 18 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 19 |
Taysom Hill (TE3)
Similar to Olave and Kamara, Taysom Hill is poised to experience increased usage due to numerous injuries affecting the Saints' offense. Hill's role as the primary red zone threat is projected to expand with his versatile usage.
The absence of several notable tight ends on byes means Hill emerges as a straightforward plug-and-play option, offering elite upside.
Pat Freiermuth (TE10)
Pat Freiermuth's second game back from injured reserve showcased an impressive 33 percent target share. This notable performance was partly attributed to the favorable matchup the Cincinnati Bengals presented for tight ends.
While it's encouraging to witness the Pittsburgh Steelers' offense rebound after the firing of OC Matt Canada, there remains uncertainty about the team's long-term offensive consistency. Freiermuth can be considered in times of desperation, but there are safer tight end options available, including some more likely to score touchdowns.
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