NFL Analysis
2/28/24
6 min read
NFL Draft or Free Agency: What Is Best Way To Land Star QB?
It’s speculation season in the NFL, with free agency and the draft fast approaching. Nowhere is there more projecting than on starting quarterbacks. Everyone wants to know where the top free agent and draft quarterbacks will wind up.
Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield are the focal points among pending free-agent quarterbacks. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels should be top-five picks. That trio leads a highly-rated college quarterback class with J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix as possible later first-round or early second-round picks.
First Round QBs Don't Always Pan Out
A common misconception in roster building is a team must select a first-round quarterback for the game’s most important position — preferably a high first-rounder. But history tells us this draft will have several busts among the top quarterbacks.
It’s too early to call Bryce Young a bust as last year’s top overall pick by the Carolina Panthers. He went to a team with a lackluster supporting cast and struggled while second-overall pick C.J. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors with a tremendous season in Houston.
Ryan Leaf, Mitchell Trubisky and Zach Wilson were second-overall picks who are rightfully labeled NFL busts. In the same draft that delivered Josh Allen to Buffalo and Lamar Jackson to Baltimore as first-rounders, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen were top-10 picks who did not pan out for their drafting teams — the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals.
Perhaps Wilson — still only 24 — will re-emerge someday as a quality player for the Jets or another team. That was the case last season for Baker Mayfield with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after injuries and lack of production derailed a promising start in Cleveland as the top overall pick in 2018.
Rookie QBs Can Be an Advantage
It’s clear that drafting a new signal caller and especially getting fortunate with a less expensive later-round player such as Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers’ seventh-round pick in 2022) works best when it comes to managing the salary cap. The 49ers were very fortunate to hit on Purdy after they had traded up to No. 3 overall for Trey Lance. Lance was eventually dumped to the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round pick last year after injuries and shaky play cost him his spot in San Francisco.
A quarterback like Purdy gives his team a cheap rookie contract, allowing more cap room to build a great supporting cast. Two prime examples were Russell Wilson as a third-round pick on Seattle’s powerhouse teams a decade ago and Patrick Mahomes as the No. 10 overall pick in 2017 and a starter by his second season in Kansas City.
Having a recent draft pick as the starter is more beneficial cap-wise than paying a veteran free agent like Cousins, who should command $45 million per year with the first two years of a three-year deal likely guaranteed. There are exceptions, such as Mayfield’s $4 million salary last season, though his salary will jump significantly in 2024.
The seasoned veteran also generally provides more immediate success than a rookie.
It is rare to see a Stroud explode on the scene and become a highly productive playoff quarterback in his rookie year. Far more rare was the case of Mahomes, who became league MVP in his first year as the Chiefs starter and followed it up with a Super Bowl title in Year 3.
NFL general managers in need of starting quarterbacks are strategizing on their best path forward as they watch tape of the free agents, including Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill and Josh Dobbs. They’re also heading to the NFL Combine this week to view the top quarterbacks and interview them.
Seeing the vastly different approaches among AFC and NFC teams last season with their starting quarterbacks is fascinating. Part of this research was done by my podcast partner at Talk North — Jim Souhan.
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AFC, Land of the First-Round QBs
All four 2023 divisional round playoff teams in the AFC had a star-caliber starting QB they drafted in the first round — Mahomes, Jackson (No. 32 in 2018), Allen (No. 7 in 2018) and Stroud.
We can add Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow (No. 1 in 2020), Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5 in 2020), the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert (No. 6 in 2020) and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence (No. 1 in 2021) to the mix as recent AFC playoff quarterbacks who were first-round picks. Toss in Deshaun Watson (No. 12 in 2017), who was a playoff QB in two seasons with the Houston Texans. Watson would’ve directed the Browns in last season’s playoffs if he had not hurt his shoulder mid-season.
The Steelers’ starter was 2022 first-rounder Kenny Pickett (No. 22 in 2022) until he sprained his ankle in Week 13 and backed up Mason Rudolph in the Wild-Card Round loss at Buffalo.
NFC QBs Are Diverse Group
On the NFC side, the starting QB makeup in the 2023 Divisional Round of the playoffs includes only Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers as a first-rounder drafted by his team.
Purdy was a seventh-rounder. Mayfield was a free agent signee by the Buccaneers, playing for his fourth team. The Detroit Lions acquired Jared Goff in a trade with the Los Angeles Rams, where he was the first overall pick in 2016 but fell out of favor.
Several other recent playoff QBs on the NFC side were not first-round picks with their current teams. Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick in 2020 by the Philadelphia Eagles. Dak Prescott was selected in the fourth round in 2016 by the Dallas Cowboys. Matthew Stafford, a first-round pick of the Lions in 2009, was acquired by the Rams in the Goff trade. Geno Smith was a Jets’ second-round pick in 2013 who was a playoff quarterback in 2022 with the Seahawks, his fourth team. Cousins signed as a free agent with the Vikings in 2018 after his early career in Washington, which drafted him in the fourth round.
Daniel Jones is the other NFC playoff quarterback who was a first-round pick in the past two years. The New York Giants drafted him at No. 6 overall in 2019.
Then there’s Tom Brady, who led the Buccaneers in the 2022 postseason as a free agent signee after his storied career with the New England Patriots, who drafted him with a sixth-round pick in 2000.
Have to Hit on the Pick
So, as teams consider three to six possible first-round quarterbacks this year, they also know there are plenty of avenues to find a productive signal-caller.
The first-round picks are great for a franchise, but only if they turn into true franchise quarterbacks.
