NFL Analysis
3/10/24
7 min read
Mac Jones Trade Signals Fresh Start for New England Patriots
There was a time when many around the league viewed Mac Jones as a potential franchise quarterback. During his rookie season, he helped lead the New England Patriots to the playoffs with a record of 10-7. And while the Patriots had a strong defense, Jones wasn't carried by a superior team.
He played well and was the reason the Patriots won several big games. The Patriots had one of the top offenses in the league, and Jones had several performances with 300-plus yards and multiple touchdown passes.
His biggest win that season came against the Tennessee Titans, who finished as the AFC's No. 1 seed. Jones completed nearly 72 percent of his passes in that game, throwing for two touchdowns and more than 300 yards. He torched one of the NFL's best pass defenses, and it felt like Jones would be a suitable successor to Tom Brady in Foxboro. He made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, and it felt like the Patriots struck gold in the middle of Round 1.
What Went Wrong?
Unfortunately, that rookie season proved to be a fluke. Jones never recreated that magic again in New England, and there are a few explanations for what happened. There is no question that the talent around Jones declined over the past two seasons. The Patriots lost several key starters on offense, including his No. 1 receiver, Jakobi Myers. But the most significant downgrade was on the sideline.
During the 2022 offseason, Jones lost his offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels) to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Patriots failed to replace him sufficiently, giving former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia play-calling duties. That experiment went as expected. The Patriots plummeted from the No. 6-ranked scoring offense (27.2 points per game) to No. 17 (21.4). The Patriots replaced Patricia in 2023 with Bill O'Brien, but the damage had already been done by then.
Jones lost all the confidence and moxie that made him successful as a rookie. You could see in real time that he didn't trust anything in the offense and was second-guessing any decision he made.
Things got so bad for Jones that he was benched for Bailey Zappe multiple times over the last two seasons. Zappe is the lesser player of the two, as he has a significantly worse arm and doesn't offer anything on the ground. But he was playing with more confidence at the time, and that's why Bill Belichick stuck with him as long as he did.
Turning the Page
When the Patriots drafted Jones with the No. 15 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, they knew he would need to be a highly efficient passer from the pocket to succeed. Jones' lack of mobility is one of the big reasons he "fell" during the draft after rushing for 42 yards in three seasons at Alabama.
Early in his career, Jones was that highly efficient passer. He averaged 7.3 yards per attempt, and his completion percentage was greater than 67 percent. However, as the weapons and coaching staff around him deteriorated, Jones saw a massive decline in efficiency. And without the ability to create as a scrambler or as a runner, he lost his value as a player.Â
Only a handful of NFL quarterbacks can win at an elite rate in the pocket without adding any value on the ground. Jones did it as a rookie, but it never again happened after he lost McDaniels. That should be a cautionary tale for teams looking for their future franchise quarterback. In today's NFL, mobility is a must, not a luxury.
Belichick is out in New England, so the Patriots are starting over and will do so without Jones. Early on Sunday morning, Adam Schefter of ESPN reported that Jones will be traded (once the new league year starts) to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a sixth-round pick. It’s a small price for the Jaguars to pay for a quarterback who is just 25 with 42 career starts. It might have made more sense for New England to hold onto him at that price, but it’s clear that they want to turn the page.
What’s Next For New England?
Now that Jones is gone, there is no illusion of what will happen next in New England. Sitting at pick No. 3, the Patriots are a near-lock to draft a quarterback with their first pick. The good news for the Patriots is that this is a draft where a team picking at No. 3 can feel good about the quarterback on the board. Caleb Williams almost assuredly will go off the board to the Bears at No. 1, so that means at least two of Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy will be available when the Patriots are on the clock.
>>READ: 2024 NFL Draft Big Board
Around the NFL, the common belief is that the Patriots "love" Daniels and would even consider trading up to No. 2 to acquire him. However, that could be a pre-draft rumor to help someone like Maye fall to them at No. 3. Even McCarthy has gotten some buzz inside the top five, and New England would be an interesting landing spot. However, the expectation is that Maye or Daniels would be their preferred option.
There is also the possibility that the Patriots could sign a veteran free-agent quarterback this week, move down from No. 3, and collect a king's ransom. One reason that makes sense is that the Patriots need a lot of help on both sides of the ball. Unlike other teams in the AFC, they aren't just a quarterback away from being competitive. They desperately need more help at wide receiver and offensive line, regardless of who is under center.
It also doesn't hurt that the quarterbacks expected to hit free agency aren't all that bad, either. Kirk Cousins is the crown jewel of this class, but it doesn't make a lot of sense for the Patriots to be in the market for a soon-to-be 36-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles. Instead, Baker Mayfield could be an option after a career year in Tampa Bay.Â
Does it make more sense for the Patriots to sign a veteran like Mayfield and continue to build the rest of their roster? Or should they pick a young passer at No. 3 and spend the next several years building around him?
>>READ: 2024 NFL Mock Draft
Don’t Make the Same Mistakes Again
No matter what the plan is for New England, it has to do a better job of surrounding their next quarterback with talent. They did not do that for Mac Jones, and New England paid dearly for it. There is a chance that Jones would have failed regardless, but the coaching staff's incompetence in 2022, paired with their bottom-of-the-barrel talent at the skill positions, doomed Jones and the entire team over the past two seasons.
The good news is that the Patriots admitted defeat on their 2021 first-round pick and will officially move on. It's always tough to trade a high pick, especially one that was as impressive as Jones was during his rookie season.
This allows them to turn the page completely on the Bill Belichick Era and start over. And hopefully, for the quarterback they draft or sign, they can set him up for success. Because that certainly didn't happen with the last first-round quarterback that the Patriots selected.
