Expert Analysis
12/10/23
10 min read
Lions, Chiefs Exposed as Likely Super Bowl Pretenders
December football is all about separating the contenders from the rest of the pack. The cream rises to the top, while the other playoff hopefuls duke it out for a chance to maybe win a Wild Card game before being sent home.
Week 14 gave us a taste of that process sorting itself out as the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs suffered painful losses of different flavors.
The Lions took a beating from the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. It was a roller coaster affair that started with the Lions surrendering 10 unanswered points before scoring 13 themselves heading into halftime. Then the Bears took over the game in the second half, an effort that included shutting out the Lions for two quarters and quarterback Justin Fields converting a fourth-and-13 with a touchdown throw to DJ Moore. Humbling loss, to say the least.
For the Chiefs, losing to the Buffalo Bills was less humbling and more frustrating. A season's worth of turnover problems, poor receiver play and mind-numbing penalties all boiled over at the worst moment. The Chiefs battled the Bills to the very end despite all their inconsistencies on offense, but a Kadarius Toney offensive offsides call erased a lateral pass touchdown from Travis Kelce to Toney in the final minutes, allowing the Bills to ice the game.
Neither the Lions nor the Chiefs are secretly bad teams, but they are flawed teams, and the losses they suffered on Sunday capture that. We're getting to the point with both teams where it's easy to imagine those flaws being too great, too cumbersome to overcome when we get to elimination football in January.
Pass Coverage Sinking Lions' Defense
Of the two, Detroit is in more treacherous waters. It’s got issues on both sides of the ball.
Let's start with the obvious pain point: the defense.
Early in the season, Detroit's young defense looked like it had a little something. A bit of fire, a bit of creativity. Cornerstone pieces such as Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeil and Brian Branch were making plays nonstop, and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn seemed to open his rolodex of coverages up to reflect his days in New Orleans.
That was enough of a formula to land at ninth in EPA per play through the first nine weeks of the season. Nobody would call that a juggernaut, but it was firmly an above-average unit, which is a godsend from where the Lions defense has been in years past.
It's all unraveled since then. From Week 10 and on, the Lions defense ranks 29th in EPA per play, only ahead of the Seahawks, Eagles and Commanders. They have not allowed fewer than 26 points in any game over that stretch, including two games to the Bears and a Chargers team that has combined for 13 points over its past two outings.
As with anything, there's multiple factors at play for why the Lions have fallen off, but the pass coverage unit is the primary culprit. They just can't cover guys right now, plain and simple.
Cameron Sutton, who the team signed in free agency this offseason, is a nice cornerback to have. He's an NFL starter. At no point was Sutton ever a true No.1, though. He's not the type of corner who can shadow and erase another team's star from a game. Starting opposite of Sutton is Jerry Jacobs, whose best trait is tackling. Not a great descriptor for an outside cornerback.
Then there's Detroit's issues over the middle. Branch is playing good ball from the nickel spot, but the rest of the coverage unit over the middle is a nightmare. The safeties have struggled to make impact plays all season, and they don't really have any niche traits for Glenn to deploy.
At linebacker, it's been even worse. Rookie Jack Campbell is a total liability in coverage when they let him on the field. The veterans on the roster — Alex Anzalone, Malcolm Rodriguez, Derrick Barnes and Jalen Reeves-Maybin — have not been any better. The latter three are good blitzers, credit to 'em, but they can't cover. Even getting them to make tackles on underneath throws is a struggle.
All of those shortcomings in the back seven have erased the efforts of a solid defensive line. The pass rush can still kind of get after it and the run defense is more than fine, but it just doesn't matter. Keeping offenses in difficult down-and-distances doesn't really do anything for them and quarterbacks can often get rid of the ball in a hurry to open receivers.
Bad Weather Fouls Up Goff
The Lions defense is not alone in its struggles, though. The offense is in danger of joining it thanks to the changing of the seasons.
Leaves are falling, temperatures are dropping and Christmas lights are going up. For many, that just means it's the holiday season, but in the NFL, it's "Goff turns into a corncob because of the weather" season.
Jared Goff has long had struggles in less-than-ideal weather conditions. For whatever reason, anything from cold weather to wind to rain completely robs Goff of his ability to play quarterback. The ball comes out of his hand differently and he doesn't command the offense the same way. Playing outside is not a good time for Goff.
We can all feel it anecdotally; just check out Goff's game on a windy day in Baltimore earlier this season. It's more than a feeling, though. The numbers agree.
Since 2017, Goff has produced 0.24 EPA per dropback and a 55.1 percent passing success rate in 13 indoor games during the months of December and January, per TruMedia. He's 12-1 in those games.
Goff falls off a cliff when playing outdoors in December and January. In 17 such games, Goff holds an 8-9 record while producing a 0.01 EPA per dropback and a 45.3 percent success rate, almost a full 10 percent worse than when he has the comfort of air conditioning.
| Indoor Games (December, January) | Outdoor Games (December, January) | ||
| + | Games Played | 13 | 17 |
| + | Win-Loss Record | 12-1 | 8-9 |
| + | EPA per Dropback | 0.24 | 0.01 |
| + | Passing Success Rate | 55.1% | 45.3% |
If the Lions were on pace for the first seed in the NFC, this wouldn't be a problem. They'd get home field advantage in the Ford Field dome all the way through. That's not the case, though. In reality, the Lions will almost certainly have to play the Eagles or 49ers outside in the divisional or conference championship round.
And if they do, good luck.
Limited Options Leave Chiefs Offense Struggling
The Chiefs' issues are a lot less interesting. None of the skill players scare defenses outside of Kelce, who is a slightly diminished version of himself compared to his peaks from a few seasons ago.
To be clear, Kelce is still a weapon. He is Patrick Mahomes' safety outlet. Whenever Mahomes needs a play, Kelce is the target. Whenever Andy Reid wants to cook something up, Kelce is often the guy he is trying to get going. Kelce, even if 90 percent of the player he once was, is still a needle mover.
Rookie Rashee Rice is the only other useful pass-catcher, but he isn't a complete receiver by any means. Rice is a short-area monster with explosive YAC ability and as much strength as you'll find in a 6-foot-1, 204-pound receiver.
At the same time, Rice isn't a complete or reliable route-runner. He isn't someone who wins consistently 1-on-1 on the outside, especially if he's not cutting to the middle of the field. That would be awesome as a second or third WR threat in a good offense, but as the leading wide receiver in this offense, it's not enough.
The rest of the receiver group are just ideas. Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are downfield threats, but only in theory and not in reality. Skyy Moore and Toney are short-area YAC threats, but they're much worse and less reliable in that role than Rice, so it's kind of moot.
Boiling everything down to volume and EPA per target is a cheap way to express the issue, but it paints a clear picture. Kelce far outpaces the rest of the team, while Rice is the best of the rest. Nobody else is giving the Chiefs volume and efficiency.
For the first two months of the season, it felt like either that was going to be fine or they'd figure themselves out by the time the playoffs came around. Well now it's December, and it's not fine and the Chiefs have not figured things out with only a few weeks left until the postseason kicks off.
There is a slight chance Rice can really kick into another gear when it comes time to put up or shut up, but that's the only sliver of hope. It's hard to imagine any of the ancillary pieces behind Rice stepping up at this point. They're all known quantities at this point in their careers.
Chiefs' Edge Is Their Track Record of Success
While panic is warranted for the Chiefs and Lions, there is at least one key difference that separates their dwindling chances in the postseason.
At least with the Chiefs, we know they have pillars of success. Reid is one of the league's sharpest play-callers, and Mahomes and Kelce are absolutely still capable of taking over games despite accomplishing that fewer times this season than before.
You can tell yourself the story that these guys will turn it up a notch when we get into the postseason. After all, Mahomes has never been stopped short of the AFC Championship game before in five seasons as a starter. It says something that this year is the first time we doubt whether they can make it that far, but it's impossible to count them out until they're out for real.
That's not the case with the Lions. This team is not a team with a winning history or an all-time great quarterback. Dan Campbell has put together a solid coaching staff and roster, no doubt about it, but this iteration of the team is largely unproven when it comes to big time success. It's important to remember this is still an up-and-coming franchise, not a team we all expected to be contenders coming into the year.
Saying they're not yet ready for January isn't a crime on their part, but it is the reality.
Regardless, the rest of the season and the playoffs will be an uphill battle for both of these teams. The Lions are not on the same level as the 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles, and the Chiefs feel less stable than the Ravens or even the Dolphins.
All of that will sort itself out in due time, but for now, both the Lions and Chiefs have lost the contending-level shine they had in the early months of the season.
