Betting

4/4/23

7 min read

Fantasy Football 2023: Potential Landing Spots for Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs

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Jahmyr Gibbs fantasy

Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report) is a near lock to be the second back taken in the 2023 NFL Draft. Here, we’ve analyzed his top fantasy landing spots in order of betting market likelihood. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. For each team, Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds provide fantasy analysis for Gibbs.

We also give an overall ranking (1-10) for how exciting this landing spot would be for fantasy football in 2023.

Implied percentage odds are included for all betting figures to provide additional context. All projected draft slots are courtesy of the NFL Mock Draft Database.

Other Fantasy Football Fits: Bijan Robinson | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Quentin Johnston

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Jahmyr Gibbs' Profile

Projected Average Draft Slot: 40th

  • He is an undersized receiving back with elite speed and surprisingly good instincts as a runner.
  • Alvin Kamara is the ceiling outcome for usage, while early career Nyheim Hines (60 catches, 850 total yards and 5-7 TDs) is the floor.
  • He would be nearly in the Christian McCaffrey/Austin Ekeler tier of receiving back. Gibbs would immediately take over most of the receiving work for a lot of teams.

 

Potential Landing Spots

Dallas Cowboys, Pick 26 or 58

Odds: +700, 12.5 percent

Rating: 3/10

  • Gibbs likely splits carries and pass-game work with Tony Pollard. Gibbs isn’t a lock for goal-line work either.
  • From a roster-building perspective, Gibbs and Pollard are not complementary players.
    • It’s hard to see either of these players getting first-down carries between the tackles.
  • The Dallas Cowboys' quality offensive line and overall environment keep this from being a catastrophic 1/10 landing spot for Year 1.

Cincinnati Bengals, Pick 28 or 60

Odds: +700, 12.5 percent

Rating: 8.5/10

  • Joe Mixon is already on thin ice with the Cincinnati Bengals, making it unlikely he sticks around if the Bengals take a running back in Round 1.
  • Joe Burrow is a pocket passer — behind an improving offensive line — who runs an efficient, high-scoring offense.
  • Gibbs has 10-touchdown upside here, even if he’s not the primary goal-line back.
  • Their strength at wide receiver could limit Gibbs’ target upside. He’d be behind Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and possibly Tyler Boyd.
  • Boyd’s role has the potential to be severely reduced in this scenario.

Los Angeles Chargers, Pick 21 or 54

Odds: +800, 11.1 percent

Rating: 3/10 or 10/10

  • This is a 3/10 if Ekeler, who requested a trade, isn’t traded but a 10/10 if Ekeler is moved.
  • Ekeler had back-to-back seasons above 21 PPR fantasy points per game, and the Chargers have shown a willingness to give goal-line work to the best back, regardless of size.
  • The Chargers have a great young offensive line and an elite quarterback.
  • Think of him as a 1 vs. 1 replacement for Ekeler should he land here.

 

Kansas City Chiefs, Pick 31 or 63

Odds: +800, 11.1 percent

Rating: 9.5/10

  • Gibbs would be a major talent upgrade for the Jerick McKinnon role.
  • Isiah Pacheco likely still leads this backfield in carries, but Gibbs has Kareem Hunt's rookie season in his range of outcomes.
  • Gibbs could get goal-line work over Pacheco, like McKinnon was for much of 2022.
  • Catapults to a Round 2/3 fantasy pick if he lands here.

Buffalo Bills, Pick 27 or 59

Odds: +1000, 9.1 percent

Rating: 7.5/10

  • Immense TD and yardage upside in this fast-paced Buffalo Bills offense.
  • There would be concerns about Josh Allen stealing goal-line carries and James Cook’s slow integration into this offense last season.
    • Their backfield is crowded but not insurmountable.
  • This would be a strange draft pick by Buffalo after investing a second-round pick in Cook last year.

New Orleans Saints, Pick 29 or 40

Odds: +1500, 6.3 percent

Rating: 4/10

  • Gibbs would be behind Jamaal Williams and Taysom Hill for goal-line opportunities.
  • The “Kamara” role in the first year without Sean Payton wasn’t actually the “Kamara” role.
    • Kamara’s 2022 usage skewed heavily towards carries (14.9 per game) and away from receptions (3.8 per game), despite the Saints having one of the weakest wide receiver groups in the NFL.
  • We have fairly modest expectations for a New Orleans Saints offense that ranked 22nd in scoring last year, despite Andy Dalton’s 7.6 yards per attempt ranking fifth in the NFL, via The Edge.
  • Kamara is almost certainly a cap casualty if they select Gibbs.

Los Angeles Rams, Pick 36 or 69

Odds: +1500, 6.3 percent

Rating: 4/10

  • Matthew Stafford is a pocket passer, though Sean McVay’s offenses have in the ranked bottom five in the NFL in running back target share.
  • We expect this offense to improve from last year (dead last in the NFC in scoring). After Cooper Kupp, there is limited target competition.
  • The Rams still have a below-average offensive line that threatens the stability of the whole operation.
  • Cam Akers likely remains the goal-line back and probably the primary runner in Gibbs’ rookie year.

Denver Broncos, Pick 67 or 68

Odds: +1500, 6.3 percent

Rating: 8/10

  • Gibbs could be Sean Payton’s new Kamara.
  • Javonte Williams is coming off a major injury from last season.
  • Samaje Perine likely factors in, but Gibbs is the far superior receiving talent and is a more explosive runner per carry.
  • The Denver Broncos offense likely takes one of the biggest steps forward from last season.

Arizona Cardinals, Pick 34 or 66

Odds: +1500, 6.3 percent

Rating: 1/10

  • This is the single most disastrous landing spot from a fantasy standpoint.
  • A healthy James Conner is an impediment to overall volume, TD equity and possible receiving work.
  • Colt McCoy is their current quarterback, and Arizona has a below-average offensive line.
  • Think Cook’s rookie year for fantasy expectations.

Philadelphia Eagles, Pick 30 or 62

Odds: +1500, 6.3 percent

Rating: 7/10

  • It’s tough to see Gibbs in a workhorse role at the NFL level, and Jalen Hurts doesn’t target running backs often.
  • While a healthy Rashaad Penny gets most of the goal-line work, it's likely Gibbs takes on this role for the 8-12 games Penny misses because of injury. In the games Penny misses, Gibbs probably sees 15 touches.
  • We’re still relatively bullish on this as a landing spot, as the Eagles averaged more than 28 points per game, good for third in the NFL.

 

Pipe Dream Landing Spots

While these two landing spots have longer odds in the betting markets, they do represent the only other teams where we would rate the 2023 Jahmyr Gibbs fantasy fit as at least an 8/10.

We hope you enjoyed our thoughts on Gibbs' likely fantasy landing spots. We’ll have more information about an NFL Draft live stream with a fantasy/betting/dynasty slant at a later date.

WATCH: Gibbs' Best Fantasy Spot

Tags: 2023 Fantasy Football, Betting, Jahmyr Gibbs See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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