NFL Analysis
1/7/24
8 min read
Don't Blame Trevor Lawrence For Jaguars' Collapse
The Jacksonville Jaguars' season came down to a fourth-and-2 from their 33-yard line. After missing on second and third down, QB Trevor Lawrence wanted TE Evan Engram for the 11th time in that game with everything on the line.
Engram couldn't separate, Lawrence couldn't put air under the ball to get it over the defensive back, and the ball whistled through the air to nobody before hitting the grass. Game over.
Jags can't convert on 4th down! Titans win! #JAXvsTEN pic.twitter.com/GIbjvn1JJA
— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
In a moment the Jaguars needed Lawrence most, he couldn't deliver. The miss ended the Jaguars' turbulent season right then and there, a deflating yet anticlimactic conclusion to a frustrating campaign that never deserved a dramatic finish in the first place.
That will be the lasting impression of Lawrence and this Jaguars team. Seeing the franchise quarterback miss a gettable throw with the season on the line will be tough to forget.
While that's understandable, it's also unfair, or at the very least, incomplete.
Injury Setbacks
It's worth remembering Lawrence played a good first half and was a net positive on the game overall. It's worth remembering that one of Lawrence's two interceptions resulted from a dropped pass. Also, it's worth remembering the run game was useless again, and the Jaguars needed Lawrence to drop back nearly 50 times. Don’t forget about the Jaguars' bizarre red zone play calling that ruined their chance to tie the score on the drive before Lawrence's fateful miss.
Perhaps most importantly, it's worth remembering Lawrence isn't himself right now and hasn't been for a while. Lawrence's body was beaten to hell in the last month from top to bottom, literally.
Lawrence barely played in this game, to begin with. He hardly practiced all week, and he missed last week's game because of an AC joint sprain in his throwing (right) shoulder suffered in Week 16.
The week before that, Lawrence went into concussion protocol. And a week before that, Lawrence suffered a high-ankle sprain against the Browns. Never mind the knee issues he dealt with during the season's first half.
Nobody is at full health by this point in the season, but the string of injuries Lawrence suffered is so verifiable and so unrelenting it's hard not to point it out. It's been one thing after another for a month.
Lawrence hasn't gotten a chance to get through a normal week of practice and find his rhythm. That matters in an “Any Given Sunday” league where every rep and detail goes a long way.
Lawrence's injuries are an allegory for what's gone on in Jacksonville. It doesn't matter that Lawrence hasn't had a regular practice week in a month or that his throwing shoulder is hurt. The expectation is that Lawrence is a franchise savior. Anything less than heroically pulling the team out of the depths of hell is seen as a failure. Rain or shine, healthy or hurt, help or no help — Lawrence is supposed to figure it out every time.
Lawrence Has Little Support
That's what the Jaguars offense felt like all season. Everything is on Lawrence's shoulders. No matter where you look at the roster or coaching staff, some burden falls on Lawrence.
Look at what the Jaguars did along the offensive line in the offseason. They didn't do anything!
A middling offensive line made better by Lawrence's pre-snap premonition and pocket movement in 2022 wasn't improved.
The only change the Jaguars made was letting veteran RT Jawaan Taylor walk and replacing him with a rookie first-round pick, Anton Harrison. The Taylor-Harrison swap isn't a problem in a vacuum, but it's infuriating it was the only move the Jaguars made up front for their franchise quarterback.
Lawrence, or any quarterback, can only make up for a shaky offensive line for so long. Even the Chiefs had to learn this lesson with Patrick Mahomes after the 2021 season.
Bad as that was, at least there was a stretch of logic to it. The idea was Lawrence could do so much to mitigate the offensive line they didn't need to invest in it. That doesn't make sense for any quarterback, but it's a story you can tell yourself as a team builder.
Poor Play Calling
The change at play caller was the real head-scratcher.
Head coach Doug Pederson called the plays when the Jaguars were rolling in 2022. The whole point of bringing him in was to stabilize the offense and make it feel like an actual NFL operation.
Pederson did precisely that, and the Jaguars became one of the hottest offenses in the league when they caught on in the back half of last season.
Pederson relinquished play calling to offensive coordinator Press Taylor for 2023. By itself, it makes sense for the head coach to give up play calling. Juggling head coach duties and play calling is too much to ask of most coaches. The questionable part is handing the reins to Taylor, given his history.
Pederson gave play calling to Taylor for stretches of the 2020 season when the two were in Philadelphia. Much like we've seen with the Jaguars this year, the offense took a step back when that happened.
It's been evident in every phase of the Jaguars' offense.
The run game is less efficient and less varied than a season ago. Some of that has to do with losing Taylor at right tackle, but not all. They have struggled on a down-to-down basis and in getting explosive plays out of Travis Etienne, which is supposed to be his whole deal.
The passing game, while still functional, became totally muted. Whereas Pederson excelled at finding answers by formation and the use of motion — as well as explosive plays via under-center play action — so much of the 2023 passing game fell squarely on Lawrence's shoulders with pure dropback concepts out of shotgun.
It never felt like the offense had easy buttons besides throwing shallow crossers to Engram, which is no way for a serious offense to live. That doesn't begin to get into how clunky and frustrating the Calvin Ridley experience was this season.
All of that isn't on Taylor alone. Pederson is the head coach. Ultimately, the offense falls on him. Still, it's hard to find a more apparent reason for the offense's fall from grace between seasons than the change at play caller.
Why Lawrence Deserves Some Grace
Again, none of that dysfunction appears to matter concerning Lawrence. He's viewed as the franchise savior. He's supposed to fix and overcome it, no matter how much there is to overcome.
All that viewpoint does is throw Lawrence into an endless cycle of bad discourse.
Lawrence is clearly good enough to stabilize this franchise. Because he's made them competitive, it's not enough that he's only made them competitive. If the team can be competitive with this godsend at quarterback, then the goalpost moves and requires Lawrence to make the Jaguars dominant by himself.
In reality, being a dominant team requires far more than just a quarterback. Still, the hyperbolic frenzy surrounding a "generational prospect" at quarterback throws that truth out the door for many people.
It's the same nonsense we all went through watching Andrew Luck with the Indianapolis Colts. To be clear, Lawrence isn't quite on Luck's level, but it's the same phenomenon. He is almost punished for making the team better than it is and presenting a false sense of optimism the rest of the roster doesn't warrant yet.
Sunday's loss will be hard to forget for the next seven months. Lawrence isn't without blame for missing that throw or letting the season slip away.
But consider at this time just a year ago, Lawrence was hot off a daring comeback against the Ravens in late November, orchestrated a stunning second-half comeback against the Chargers in his first playoff game, and subsequently played the Chiefs close in the divisional round.
That fourth down miss against the Titans shouldn't define Lawrence.
We know what a healthy Lawrence can do with a play caller who does more good than harm. Lawrence not getting those things in the last month of just his third NFL season shouldn't be an indictment on his past, potential or standing among the rest of the league's quarterbacks.
If anything, Sunday's loss is more of a wake-up call for the ownership, front office and coaching staff than for Lawrence. Like any young player, Lawrence has to continue to grow and hold up his end of the bargain, but he is clearly a franchise quarterback.
The Jaguars need to start acting like it.
