Fantasy
10/29/22
6 min read
Packers vs. Bills DFS Sunday Night Showdown
The Packers have lost three straight games and are 0-2 against teams that claim to reside in New York. In addition, Aaron Rodgers has publicly called out some teammates and has shown frustration with his wide receiver play. The Packers need to get on the right track this weekend, but it’s unlikely to happen against this Bills team.
The Bills are coming off a bye week and are rolling offensively. They have had one game in which they scored under 20 points and left a lot of points on the table. The Bills have scored 30 or more in each home game this year and haven’t allowed more than ten points. So they are huge favorites in this one.
Vegas Line: Bills -10.5
Over Under: 47.5
Notable Injuries:
Packers: OUT: WR Allen Lazard (shoulder), CB Shemar Jean-Charles (ankle); QUESTIONABLE: WR Christian Watson (hamstring), OG Elgton Jenkins (knee), OT David Bakhtiari (knee), LB Rashan Gary (concussion)
Bills: OUT: OT Spencer Brown (ankle); QUESTIONABLE: RB Taiwan Jones (knee)
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Packers Offense vs. Bills Defense
- Aaron Rodgers averages 6.6 yards per attempt, 7.0 air yards per attempt, and a 4.5% pass touchdown rate.
- Rodgers has yet to throw for over 260 yards this season or three passing touchdowns.
- He hasn’t averaged over six yards per attempt in a game since Week 4.
- He has yet to score 20 fantasy points in a game.
- The Bills have played zone coverage at over a 75% rate in every game this year, except when they played Patrick Mahomes.
- Against zone coverage, Rodgers is one of the bottom passers in yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, and pass touchdown rate.
- Against zone coverage, Robert Tonyan holds a 19.5% target share, with a 29.9% target per route run.
- Without Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, the receiving core features Romeo Doubs, Sammy Watkins, Amari Rodgers, and Samori Toure.
- Doubs and Watkins will run the most routes, and I’d expect the Packers to play two tight ends most of the time to help slow down the Bills' pass rush.
- Watkins is the best WR against zone coverage, averaging 1.6 yards per route run, with Doubs at 1.4 yards per route run.
- The Bills have been a top defense, but teams have found success going to the out wide receiver and the player aligned as the tight end.
- Romeo Doubs and Sammy Watkins primarily play outside.
- Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis will primarily play the tight-end role.
- The Bills have been a top rush defense this year, giving up just 3.0 yards per carry to running backs.
- Aaron Jones had a 29% target share last weekend and should be a featured player for the Packers this weekend.
- Jones averages over five yards per carry this year and has been the lead back overall for the Packers.
- AJ Dillon has had two games with less than ten touches in the last three weeks, but with the depleted WR core, they should be getting him the ball more.
Bills Offense vs. Packers Defense
- Josh Allen averages 8.3 yards per attempt, 7.8 air yards per attempt, and a 7.1% pass touchdown rate.
- Allen has yet to score under 24 points this year and has thrown for over 300 yards in four games.
- The Packers have switched to a man-heavy scheme and have blitzed at the second-highest rate in the NFL.
- Against a blitz, Allen gets sacked at one of the lowest rates, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, 8.7 air yards per attempt, and an 8.7% pass touchdown rate.
- Against man coverage, he has a 12.3% touchdown pass rate.
- There will not be stats to suggest this is a matchup to fade Allen.
- Stefon Diggs has over a 30% target share in back-to-back games, gets targeted on 28.4% of his routes this season, and averages over 2.7 yards per route run vs. man and zone coverage.
- Gabe Davis is the go-to deep threat on this team, and when Allen identifies single high man coverage, that’s when Davis will make his plays.
- The Packers have been susceptible to long receptions this year, and it has not mattered whether they were playing zone or man coverage.
- Isaiah McKenzie will be the third wide receiver in this offense, running around 60% of the routes, with Khalil Shakir running around half of McKenzie's routes.
- In the tight end room, Dawson Knox will be the primary tight end running over 80% of the routes, with Reggie Gilliam and Quintin Morris playing a rotational role.
- Devin Singletary is the lead back in this offense, and has led the team in touches for most weeks.
- Zack Moss didn’t play against the Chiefs, and it looks like James Cook has earned the backup role in this offense.
- Cook off the bye week could have his role expanded, and if the Bills take a big lead, he will likely see all the closing reps.
Overall Thoughts
Aaron Rodgers is struggling without playmakers, and the Packers need to make a move for someone at the wide receiver position. If the Packers want to stay in this game, they must play slowly and establish the running game. They haven’t been successful at it this year, but the best defense against Josh Allen is keeping him off the field. I expect Robert Tonyan and Sammy Watkins to be the leaders in targets for the Packers on Sunday night, but I don’t expect much production from either.
Josh Allen is playing perfect football, and I don’t see a reason to get away from him in this matchup. He makes the offense perform and does it on the ground and through the air. If the Packers attempt to bring pressure and play man coverage, there will be plays downfield for Gabe Davis; however, Stefon Diggs will lead this team in production. Dawson Knox is an intriguing, less popular multiplier play that will have red-zone opportunities against the Packers. I am inclined to get James Cook in my builds because I believe this is a situation where the Bills take a big enough lead that he sees plenty of touches.
Multiplier Pool
- Josh Allen
- Stefon Diggs
- Gabe Davis
- Robert Tonyan
- Dawson Knox
- Sammy Watkins
FLEX Pool
- Aaron Jones
- Aaron Rodgers
- Devin Singletary
- Isaiah McKenzie
- Bills DST
- Tyler Bass
- Mason Crosby
- A.J. Dillon
- Romeo Doubs
- Khalil Shakir
- James Cook
- Reggie Gilliam
- Christian Watson
- Samori Toure
- Quintin Morris
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