Derek Carr Holds Much of the Power to Decide His Future
Analysis 2/9/23
Derek Carr holds the power to decide his own fate.
The Las Vegas Raiders have not really given Carr permission to seek a trade on his own. They have agreed to basic terms with the New Orleans Saints, and they have a good understanding of what the Raiders would want in the trade.
The big hold-up here has been Carr's contract, and he has $40 million plus that becomes fully guaranteed three days after the Super Bowl. The Saints, as we all know, are always one of those teams that are tight to the (salary) cap. So it would be difficult for them to take on Carr's contract.
The talk in Mobile (Ala., at the Senior Bowl) was more about whether Carr would be willing to renegotiate that contract, in order to make a trade happen. It's unclear if that will happen. Carr has a no-trade clause, which gives him a lot of power in all of this.
He met with the Saints on Wednesday, through the evening. They went out and dined. (Head coach) Dennis Allen, (general manager) Mickey Loomis, and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael were all there. It was just getting to know him and see if they fit. So they talked and discussed, and we'll see where it goes from there.
Carr could say "you know what? I’m not going to approve a trade, I’d rather get cut." The benefit Carr has then is if he gets cut three days after the Super Bowl before that money guarantees. He essentially would have a full month's head start on free agency over everybody else. All these other players who are about to become free agents have to wait until March 15 (when free agency opens). Carr could start to talk to teams and visit with teams in early February.
This happened with J.J. Watt when he was released by the Houston Texans in 2021. He went out and started talking to teams and eventually signed with the Arizona Cardinals.
So Carr could look at that and say "I can move on from this current contract, go out and become a free agent, visit with teams, and basically renegotiate with teams and have maybe a bidding war with multiple teams."
Look at the NFC South. All four teams basically need a quarterback, so Carr could create a situation where multiple teams are going after him, whether it’s the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Saints.
Carr holds a lot of the power here. We’ll see if he’s willing to redo the contract now in order to make a trade happen. If not, he could just wait for this trigger deadline to hit, and — assuming the Raiders move on from him before that trigger — then he'll become a free agent with a full month's head start over everyone else.
I think we’ll have more clarity on this most likely early next week.