NFL Analysis
1/14/24
6 min read
Dallas Cowboys' Playoff Meltdown Brings Dak Prescott's Future Into Question
This year was supposed to be different.
The Dallas Cowboys won 12 games for the third straight season and went 8-0 at home. Dallas wrapped up the No. 2 seed in the NFC in Week 18 despite the Eagles controlling the division for much of the season. This was the highest seed the Cowboys have been since the 2016 season.
Everything was set up for the Cowboys to make a deep run in the postseason.
Why was this year supposed to be different? The answer is QB Dak Prescott.
After an up-and-down 2022 season, Prescott had the best season of his career. He finished as a second-team All-Pro after leading the NFL in passing touchdowns (36). He completed a career-high 69.5 percent of his passes with a passer rating of 105.9, another career best. His confidence level was through the roof going into the playoffs and his approval rating in Dallas had never been higher.
But it wasn’t just Prescott. The Cowboys were elite everywhere on offense and finished No. 1 in scoring. Dallas' 509 points were the second-most in franchise history.
WR CeeDee Lamb broke a franchise record for receiving yards and Dallas had three All-Pro selections on the offensive line. Maybe the most important thing was that the Cowboys were healthy. All 11 starters and their backups were healthy and available. That is almost underheard of in the playoffs.
On top of the offense, the Cowboys had a defense that could single-handedly win games. For the third consecutive year, Dallas led the league in takeaways, and it had an experienced defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn, who has multiple head coach interviews lined up.
And yet, none of it mattered.
Cowboys Had No Answers for Seventh Seed
The Green Bay Packers were a 9-8 team that snuck into the playoffs in the final week of the season, but they bullied the Cowboys from the opening kickoff.
The Packers took the ball right down the field and scored a touchdown to get a 7-0 start. Dallas punted on the next drive after gaining just one first down and the Packers went right down the field again to make it 14-0.
Prescott had 5 passing yards in the first quarter and the offense gained just 32 yards. Prescott threw two first-half interceptions, including a pick-six to Darnell Savage that thwarted any potential comeback.
DARNELL SAVAGE PICK-6. WOW.
— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2024
📺: #GBvsDAL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Ut3BRhC2CE pic.twitter.com/ERbaOsRW08
The Cowboys offense scored just seven points in the first half, arguably its worst outing of the season.
As bad as the offense played, the defense was worse. Green Bay’s two touchdown drives to open the game set the tone. Whenever the Cowboys built a little momentum on offense, the defense got gashed.
Dallas had no solutions to stop Green Bay and was outcoached and outplayed on nearly every drive.
The Packers scored touchdowns on six of their first seven drives. For the most part, it was pretty easy. Matt LaFleur had answers at every point in the game and never let his foot off the pedal.
Dallas created some early pressure on Jordan Love, but he picked them apart in historic fashion. Green Bay pulled Love out of the game midway through the fourth quarter (he was put back into the game after a few late touchdowns by Dallas).
The most concerning part was just how open the Packers’ receivers were. Quinn utilized a lot of soft zone and Love tore that apart. Whenever Quinn decided to blitz, Love made the Cowboys pay. It was a masterclass by the Packers and another disappointing job by the soon-to-be head coach.
So What Do Cowboys Do now?
So what now for the Cowboys? They’ve won 36 regular-season games over the past three seasons and have one of the best rosters in the league. They have a bunch of veteran talent and several All-Pro players on both sides of the ball. But for the 28th season in a row, the Cowboys failed to make the NFC Championship game.
It’s clear that whatever is happening in Dallas isn’t working. There is no reason why this team has one playoff win over the last three seasons. Instead of things getting better in Dallas, they are somehow getting worse.
The obvious answer is to move on from Mike McCarthy. He’s been the coach in Dallas for the last four seasons and has a record of 42-25 in the regular season. Is he entirely to blame? Of course not. But removing him from his role is the easiest move for the front office to make.
The hard decision is what to do with Prescott.
Prescott Has Not Elevated His Team When It Counts
After a career year, Prescott will enter the 2024 season in the final year of his contract. Undoubtedly, he has earned a new deal, but it’s also true that the lack of postseason success has been an issue.
Prescott is pretty clearly a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, but is he good enough to elevate his team in the postseason? The answer to that question right now is no.
| Season | Record | Comp. % | Yards | TD-INT |
| 2016 | 0-1 | 63.2% | 302 | 3-1 |
| 2018 | 1-1 | 64.6% | 492 | 2-1 |
| 2021 | 0-1 | 53.5% | 254 | 1-1 |
| 2022 | 1-1 | 63.4% | 511 | 5-2 |
| 2023 | 0-1 | 68.3% | 387 | 3-2 |
| Totals | 2-5 | 64.5% | 1,946 | 14-7 |
Conversely, the Cowboys have had an elite offense over the last five years whenever Prescott has been under center. Do you chalk up as bad luck in the postseason and small sample sizes? Or have the Cowboys hit their ceiling with Prescott?
You can make strong arguments either way and there is a chance both things are true. Either way, the decision the Cowboys have to make this offseason isn't an easy one.
Has Dallas Hit Rock BOttom?
In a lot of ways, this result feels like rock bottom for the Cowboys. They were 7-point favorites at home and laid an egg. It was another embarrassing playoff loss and they are once again, the butt of every joke on social media. And it’s deserved.
The hard part is that there aren’t any easy solutions moving forward. That is what is so discouraging moving forward.
The Cowboys are a good team, but not good enough to do any real damage in the postseason. In a lot of ways, they are stuck in no-man’s land. And that’s the worst spot to be in the NFL.
It’s going to be a long offseason for Cowboys’ fans. Unfortunately, that is nothing new.
