Expert Analysis
12/11/23
5 min read
Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy Take Over 2023 NFL MVP Race
Coming into Week 14, the MVP race was crowded. Brock Purdy was the slight favorite, but Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson all had similar odds. But coming out of the week, the race is down to two quarterbacks; Prescott and Purdy.
Both players had tremendous performances and both of their teams got big wins against divisional opponents. But who should be the favorite? Let’s make the case for each quarterback heading into the final month of the season.
The Case for Dak Prescott
Prescott has posted incredible stats and leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (28) while having thrown only six interceptions. The Dallas Cowboys are the NFL’s No. 1 scoring team (32.3 PPG) and have scored at least 30 points in every home game.
After an up-and-down season in 2022 in which he threw an NFL-high 15 interceptions, Prescott bounced back to play the best football of his career.
Prescott's biggest knock coming into Week 14 was that he couldn't win against good teams. The Cowboys were previously 0-2 against teams with a winning record. But in a huge NFC East battle on Sunday Night Football, Prescott lit up the Eagles for 33 points and nearly 400 yards. He made several massive throws to help the Cowboys get a much-needed win against a quality opponent.
The Cowboys sit at 10-3, tied with the Eagles atop the NFC East. For Prescott to win the MVP, the Cowboys would likely need to win the division. That is going to be tough with games still left at the Bills and Dolphins, and home vs. the Lions.
Dallas is going to need to win out and have the Eagles drop a game. That probably won’t happen given Philadelphia’s schedule, but Prescott’s numbers and the offense that he is leading are good enough to win the award.
The Case for Brock Purdy
The San Francisco 49ers are the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the biggest reason why is Purdy. He leads the league in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, passer rating and QBR.
What is scary is that he has improved over the last month while the 49ers averaged 32.4 points per game since Week 9.
The 49ers are 15-3 with Purdy as their starter over the past two seasons and are 17-0 (including playoffs) when he, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams finish the game. Purdy has grown a lot as a passer and is making big-time throws down the field. That has unlocked the offense in a way that Kyle Shanahan never could have imagined.
Purdy has developed incredible touch on his deep passes, which has allowed the 49ers to be a vertical passing offense. In years past, the 49ers relied heavily on short to intermediate throws to move the ball. Now, defenses have to defend every blade of grass. The throws aren’t super difficult, but he’s making them look routine.
The 49ers are a lock to win the NFC West and at worst will be the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
The only knock on Purdy is the offense. Shanahan has a long track record of making quarterbacks look better than they are and the 49ers are loaded with offensive talent. Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage and touchdowns. Samuel is the NFL’s best receiver after the catch and Brandon Aiyuk might be the most improved player in the league.
Purdy is doing everything he can to produce at a high level, but there is no doubt that he is in the perfect situation. His job is relatively easy compared to the league’s other elite quarterbacks, and it’s hard to believe that most top-end quarterbacks wouldn’t have the same type of success in San Francisco.
So Who Should Win MVP?
So who should be the NFL MVP? My answer is Tyreek Hill.
No player in the NFL is having a more impressive season. He leads the NFL in receiving yards (1,481) and receiving touchdowns (12) while turning the Miami Dolphins into legitimate contenders in the AFC. Hill still has five games left to play and has a real chance of eclipsing 2,000 receiving yards while leading the Dolphins to the No. 1 seed.
Unfortunately, the MVP has turned into a quarterback award, and no one is playing the position better than Prescott and Purdy. But if you had to pick one of these players to win the award, the smart choice is Purdy.
| Purdy's remaining games | Week | Prescott's remaining games |
| at ARZ (No. 23 defense) | 15 | at BUF (No. 14 defense) |
| vs. BAL (No. 2) | 16 | at MIA (No. 7) |
| at WASH (No. 32 ) | 17 | vs. DET (No. 15) |
| vs. LAR (No. 18) | 18 | at WAS (No. 32) |
The 49ers are more likely to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC and we know that voters care about wins and seeding. It also doesn't hurt that Purdy outplayed Prescott when they played earlier in the season and threw eight touchdowns against the Cowboys and Eagles.
If Prescott and the Cowboys can somehow find a way to steal the NFC East, he’ll get back into this race. He has plenty of prime time games left to show that he is the best quarterback in the league.
The good news is that we have two quality quarterback candidates and the MVP race should be a ton of fun to watch down the stretch.
