2023 NFL Draft Proves Danger of Mortgaging Future for Veteran QB
Expert Analysis 4/25/23
Now that the Aaron Rodgers trade is finally official, we can add the New York Jets to the list of teams making risky moves involving major draft capital in recent years to acquire players they anticipate will be elite quarterbacks.
As the Green Bay Packers rebuild behind new starting QB Jordan Love, they will benefit from the bevy of high draft picks they received as have the Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions and Houston Texans before them. The Jets will hope to receive a better return on their investment if Rodgers leads them to the playoffs and stays several seasons. They certainly want to get better play out of their new veteran quarterback than was the case last season with Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles, Russell Wilson in Denver and Deshaun Watson in Cleveland.
The jury is still out on the ultimate fate of these deals that have been a major part of shaping the NFL landscape in the past few years. How Rodgers, Stafford, Wilson and Watson perform in 2023 also will influence the motivation of other teams to make future trades or free agent signings for high-profile, high-priced quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins and even younger players like Trey Lance.
Suffice it to say, the 2023 draft serves as a fair warning of the high cost of trading for a star quarterback of the recent past.
Missing No. 1 Picks Hurt Team Building
As a general manager and team president, our staff was fervent believers in using the draft as the primary building block of our teams and augmenting through free agency and trades. In my pre-general manager years in the Minnesota Vikings organization, I saw our team trade out of the first round (from No. 18 overall) for two second-round picks in return, and neither of those players panned out.
I learned early never to trade a first-round pick unless it was for a great player. We did that with the Tennessee Titans in 2001 when we dealt a late first-rounder for defensive end Kevin Carter who was a Pro Bowler with the Los Angeles Rams and played at that same high level with us for several years. He earned another Pro Bowl selection in 2002 and helped us to the AFC title game.
In the mid-90s, it only cost us a third- and fourth-round pick to acquire 37-year-old future Hall of Fame QB Warren Moon from Houston. Moon led us to a division title his first year and was a Pro Bowler his first two years with us before an injury in his third season opened the door for Brad Johnson to replace him. But the trade was a big success considering the small price we paid.
Midnight Strikes in L.A.
The Rams don't pick until No. 36 (second round) in this year’s draft. They dealt their first-round pick last year, a third-rounder in 2021 and a good starting quarterback who led them to a Super Bowl and played well in Detroit last year, Jared Goff, in the Stafford deal. Things looked great for the Rams when Stafford had an excellent season in 2021 (41 TD passes, 102.9 passer rating and led the Rams to a Super Bowl title).
Then midnight struck for Cinderella, and Stafford’s spinal cord contusion landed him on injured reserve. In 2022, Stafford played only nine games, compiling a 3-6 record as the Rams took a precipitous fall to 5-12. Now the No. 6 overall pick is in the hands of the surging Lions, who can add a blue-chip player to their roster.
At 35 years old, it’s questionable if Stafford will stay healthy and return to top form. Also, the Rams’ supporting cast is shaky as a result of losing so many premium draft picks in this trade, along with the Jalen Ramsey trade in 2019.
Was it worth it if all that comes out of the Stafford deal is one championship season followed by mediocrity or worse for many years? As much as that shiny Super Bowl ring is appealing, I’d say no.
I prefer to be a consistent contender for the long term instead of one-and-done as appears to be the case for the Stafford-era Rams, who are no longer at the talent level of top teams in large part because of too many high draft picks being traded away.
Broncos' Bold Blunder
Denver’s case is a horror story thus far for the organization and general manager George Paton. The Broncos have no picks in this week’s draft until No. 67 (third round), coming off a disastrous first season with Wilson (4-11 record in his 15 starts, a career-low 84.4 passer rating and taking a league-high 55 sacks). Injuries on offense were a problem, along with shaky coaching from since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. But, Wilson did not look like the same confident quarterback he was for most of his career in Seattle.
Wilson was 33 years old coming off his first losing season when the trade was made. Seahawks general manager John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll saw an opportunity to acquire a significant haul for Wilson, who they felt was not the player he was at the peak of a run that included two Super Bowl appearances and nine Pro Bowls.
Schneider is like the Cheshire Cat, as he sits with the No. 5 and 37 picks this year from Denver. Last year, he used the other picks from the Wilson trade to draft starting left tackle Charles Cross (No. 9 overall), a promising outside linebacker/edge rusher in Boye Mafe (three sacks and 41 tackles in his rookie season) in the second round and two depth players in linebacker Tyreke Smith and receiver Dareke Young in the fifth and seventh rounds, respectively.
Seattle also acquired backup QB Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant (50 catches, 486 yards, four TDs last season) and defensive end Shelby Harris (two sacks and 44 tackles in 2022 before being released in March).
Schneider also struck gold with bargain veteran Geno Smith, and he can draft a quarterback of the future with one of his two first-round picks this week (No. 5 and No. 20). Or perhaps draft a quarterback gem as he did with Wilson in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft, rebooting the success they had when Wilson was leading them to Super Bowls on his rookie deal.
The Broncos hope new coach Sean Payton, along with the return of several injured starters, can help Wilson return to his Pro Bowl level and make the team competitive in the challenging AFC West. But so far, it’s another cautionary tale on dealing too many high draft picks and contributing vets for an aging quarterback who has to try and succeed in a new system. A repeat of Peyton Manning to Denver has not been the case so far.
'Pressure Is On' Browns Coach
Then there’s the beleaguered Cleveland Browns, who sold the farm for Watson, a character risk who missed the 2021 season while Houston waited to trade him. I never would’ve made the deal Browns general manager Andrew Berry did in dealing first-rounders in 2022, 2023 (No. 12 overall) and 2024, a third-round pick this year and a fourth-rounder in 2024 for a player with Watson’s off-field baggage.
Unless they trade up, the Browns will wait until pick No. 74 (third round) before they can add to a team that went 7-10 in 2022 and has made the playoffs only once in the past 20 years. That’s why Cleveland was desperate enough to trade so much for Watson and give him a fully guaranteed $230 million, five-year contract.
Watson was a great player coming out of Clemson as the 12th pick in the 2017 NFL Draft and an elite quarterback for the Texans as a three-time Pro Bowler. His career took a turn in 2021 when he faced allegations of sexual assault and was suspended without pay for the first 11 games of the 2022 season. Now, the pressure is on coach Kevin Stefanski to get Watson back on track. Watson turns 28 in September and has time on his side, but the loss of so many high draft picks hurts the Browns’ cause significantly.
Will Rodgers Break the Trend?
None of these decisions look smart for the Rams, Broncos or Browns in mortgaging the future for veteran quarterbacks as they have set up the Lions, Seahawks and Texans for success if the draft picks acquired produce as expected.
Rodgers can reverse this trend as he joins a Jets team with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. The Jets didn’t hand over multiple first-round picks in the deal either.
Rodgers is highly motivated to prove the Packers made a mistake drafting Love and starting the clock toward the veteran's departure. But he’ll need to lead the Jets on long playoff runs over the next two to three seasons at least to make this deal look successful when a 2023 second-round pick and (potential) 2024 first-round pick are involved, along with Green Bay moving up from No. 15 to No. 13 overall this year.
There’s always the risk that the mercurial Rodgers won’t mesh with his new team, or he’ll decide to pack it in after one season and host Jeopardy or go on a semi-permanent darkness retreat. He has already collected the $58.3 million option bonus in his contract for this year. That would make me nervous if I were Jets general manager Joe Douglas.
Besides the draft choices involved in these trades, the acquiring team has to absorb the massive contracts of players such as Rodgers, Stafford, Wilson and Watson. It’s a lot tougher to build a great team around these players compared to teams with winning quarterbacks on rookie deals, leading to extra cap room to add a great supporting cast.
This was the case for Wilson in Seattle, Jalen Hurts last year with the Philadelphia Eagles, Joe Burrow for the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals and so many others. Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, is an anomaly who has produced championships on his cheap rookie deal and his expensive extension
A general manager better be sure — or as close as possible in an uncertain business — before dealing multiple high draft picks for veteran quarterbacks because it can bite them come draft day. Case in point: the Rams, Broncos and Browns this week.
I’d rather have my high picks and use them to draft a young star quarterback and a great supporting cast in order to cut down on the worry factor.
Jeff Diamond is a former Minnesota Vikings general manager and Titans team president. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. Follow him on Twitter at @jeffdiamondnfl.