The Cowboys have put up over 400 yards of offense in four straight games, and the run game has been the main focus. They have run for over 150 yards in each game, which has been a key to unlocking the offense.
The Colts have thrown for over 200 yards in two of their last six games, and in that will need to change to keep pace with the Cowboys.
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Vegas Line: Cowboys -9.5
Over Under: 43.5
Colts: IR: LB Shaquille Leonard; OUT: CB Kenny Moore, OG Braden Smith; QUESTIONABLE: CB Isaiah Rodgers, TE Jelani Woods
Cowboys: IR: OT Tyron Smith; QUESTIONABLE: OLB Anthony Barr, CB Trevon Diggs, WR Michael Gallup, SS Jayron Kearse
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Colts Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
- Matt Ryan averages 6.8 yards per attempt, 5.9 air yards per attempt, and a 2.8% pass touchdown rate.
- Ryan gets sacked on 7.4% of his dropbacks.
- The Cowboys get a sack on 11.1% of dropbacks.
The Cowboys play zone coverage at a 75% rate and blitz at a 27% rate.
- Against zone coverage, Ryan averages 7.1 yards per attempt, 5.4 air yards per attempt, and a 0.4% pass touchdown rate.
- Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, Alec Pierce, Jonathan Taylor, and Jelani Woods are the only players with over a 60% route run share.
- The only other player to see over 10% of routes were Ashton Dulin and Mo Alie-Cox.
- Christian Watson and Cooper Kupp are the only two players to have over 100 yards receiving against the Cowboys.
- Pittman leads the team with a 22% target share when Ryan is pressured.
- Campbell and Pittman are the only players with over a 15% target share against zone coverage.
- The main focus of the offense will be Jonathan Taylor.
- Taylor has three straight games with over 20 carries, a touchdown, and at least 80 yards rushing.
- Aaron Jones and Leonard Fournette had over 120 yards rushing against this Cowboys’ run defense.
- The Cowboys have given up 4.5 yards per carry on the year.
Cowboys Offense vs. Colts Defense
- Dak Prescott averages 7.7 yards per attempt, 8.2 air yards per attempt, and a 5.5% pass touchdown rate.
- The Colts play zone coverage at a 77.2% rate and rarely blitz.
- Against zone coverage, Prescott averages 8.4 yards per attempt, 6.9 air yards per attempt, and a 3.6% pass touchdown rate.
- No quarterback has thrown for over 300 yards against the Colts this season.
- CeeDee Lamb has a 29.9% target share against zone coverage and averages 2.5 yards per route run.
- Michael Gallup has an 8.9% target share against zone coverage and averages 1.1 yards per route run.
- Davante Adams and Terry McLaurin are the only two wide receivers to have over 100 yards against the Colts.
- Adams and McLaurin had a majority of their yards come from lining up out wide.
- Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz are the other pass catchers of note for the Cowboys, but neither ran over 60% of the routes last weekend.
- Brown averages 1.2 yards per route run against zone coverage.
- Schultz has the second-highest target share against zone coverage at 14% and averages 1.6 yards per route run.
- Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard will both get plenty of touches to be showdown relevant.
- Elliott will handle short-yardage situations and has 15 carries in both games.
- Pollard will handle passing game work and also around 15 carries.
- The Colts have struggled with faster running backs, and I expect Pollard to be the one with the biggest impact.
The Cowboys’ defensive line has shown up all season, and the Colts’ offensive line has not shown up in pass protection. The only way the Cowboys’ defense does not perform at a high level is if Jonathan Taylor has a massive impact on the game. Jelani Woods creates the biggest mismatch in the passing game, but Michael Pittman will be the primary target.
The Cowboys will look to their run game and will attack the slot without Kenny Moore. CeeDee Lamb, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz are the three pass catchers I am most interested in for the Cowboys. The run game will be the primary focus for the Cowboys, and Tony Pollard will be the leader in that category. Elliott will always be capable of stealing touchdowns, but I expect Pollard to do it on the ground and through the air.
- WR CeeDee Lamb
- RB Jonathan Taylor
- RB Tony Pollard
- DST Cowboys
- TE Dalton Schultz
- QB Dak Prescott
- WR Michael Pittman
- RB Ezekiel Eliott
- WR Parris Campbell
- WR Noah Brown
- K Brett Maher
- TE Jelani Woods
- K Chase McLaughlin
- WR Alec Pierce
- DST Colts
- TE Jake Ferguson