Analysis
10/5/22
4 min read
Week 5 Thursday Night Football Player Props
Last week, we went 5-4 to improve to 22-19-2 for the season. Unlike last week’s Thursday night game, with very few props posted until the day of, this week’s game already has a full board. I decided to go big and post five plays for the Thursday night game since my favorite team, the Denver Broncos, is playing in this battle of horse mascots. As always, the props are listed in the order in which I like them, with my favorite props listed last.
Courtland Sutton OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards
I have been debating between playing Sutton or Jerry Jeudy, but I'm leaning towards Sutton because of his slightly better usage against zone coverage. This play was strongly confirmed by The 33rd Team's DFS Expert Jordan Vanek and Greg Jennings, who favored Sutton having a stronger game against the Colts’ cover-three-heavy defense. Sutton has a 23.3% target share against a zone defense when Jeudy is also on the field, which is the highest on the team. Sutton has gone over this line three out of four weeks, and I would play this up to 70.5 receiving yards.
WATCH MORE: Jordan Vanek and Greg Jennings Debate Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy's Impact for TNF
Alec Pierce OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards
Pierce is starting to gain the trust of Matt Ryan and has seen a target on nearly 30% of his routes in the last two games. When you look at routes run against zone coverage, that number increases to 32%. Against a Broncos defense that runs zone coverage 75% of the time, I think this is a possible breakout game for Pierce as he acclimates to the NFL during his rookie season. Pierce has also seen 41% of the team's air yards during the last two weeks, and one of the primary reasons I like this yardage prop is because he could go over on just one deep completion. I would play this over up to 40.5 rec yards.
Denver Broncos Defense and Special Teams OVER 6.0 Fantasy Points
Our first D/ST play of the season is a great one. This Broncos defense has actually been fairly decent this season. They’re 10th overall in defensive EPA and third in defensive EPA at home. While they’ve only allowed 19 points at home through two games, I think sacks are the critical stat. The Broncos have 11 sacks through four games, and the Colts have given up 15 sacks this season. Sacks are worth one point each, and if the Broncos can get 3-4 sacks, this over should be a lock. I would not play it much higher if the line moves.
Michael Pittman Jr. OVER 5.5 Receptions
In the battle of the teams that run cover three at some of the highest rates in the NFL, I think Pittman will see success against an above-average Broncos pass defense. The Broncos run cover three 44.4% of the time, and Pittman has a 26.9% target share against cover three. He is also seeing a target 32.6% of the time he runs a route against cover three, so the volume should be there.
Top wide receivers have also seen a lot of volume in the first four weeks against this Broncos defense. DK Metcalf saw seven targets in Week 1, Brandin Cooks saw 10 targets in Week 2, Deebo Samuel saw eight targets in Week 3 and Davante Adams saw 13 targets in Week 4. Because of these target numbers and Pittman’s usage against cover three, I like his reception line better than his receiving yards line. I would not play this line any higher, though.
Russell Wilson UNDER 0.5 Interceptions
The Colts have faced 67 pass attempts on the road this season and have not intercepted a single one. Russell Wilson has had a 1.7% interception rate in the last five seasons. That’s one interception per 60 pass attempts. If you look at his performance at home, that interception rate decreases to 1.4%. I love this play against a Colts defense that hasn’t intercepted an opposing QB on the road this season.
WATCH MORE: Fantasy Expert Josh Larky Talks With Former NFL Coach Marty Mornhinweg About Their Different Strategies
