Analysis
11/11/22
8 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Browns vs. Dolphins
Cleveland Browns (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Opening Spread: Dolphins -4.
Opening Game Total: 48.5.
Opening Team Totals: Dolphins (26.25), Browns (22.25).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Dolphins -4.
- This line has moved to Dolphins -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Dolphins -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Dolphins -3.5.
- This total opened at 48.5 points.
- This total remains at 48.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Dolphins:
Out: OG Liam Eichenberg, CB Byron Jones.
Questionable: LT Terron Armstead, RT Austin Jackson,
Browns:
Questionable: TE David Njoku, RG Wyatt Teller, RT Jack Conklin, LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, CB Greg Newsome II.
The Dolphins Offense vs. Browns Defense
Miami has an average offensive line headlined by high-end left tackle Terron Armstead. The Browns have an average defensive line headlined by high-end edge Myles Garrett. From a macro sense, this trench matchup is a relative draw where these two groups almost mirror each other. That said, Garrett presents a matchup problem against anyone, even a premium tackle like Armstead.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- Miami is 4-5 against the spread this season.
- The Dolphins are 4-5 on overs this season.
- Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 18-11-1 against the spread in his career.
- Tagovailoa is 12-18 on overs in his career.
- Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is 4-5 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- McDaniel is 4-5 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Dolphins Offense
- Miami is scoring 23.7 points per game, good for 10th in the league.
- The Dolphins are second in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing.
- Miami is 6-0 in games Tagovailoa has started and finished.
- Per the Edge, RBs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson split Miami’s backfield in Wilson’s first game as a Dolphin.
- WR Tyreek Hill leads the league in targets (100), receptions (76) and yards receiving (1104) by 237. Hill’s 32.3% target share is second in the league, and his 42.6% air yards share is sixth.
- WR Jaylen Waddle has a 22.3% target share and a 28.4% air yards share. Waddle is ninth in the league in receptions (47), he’s fifth in yards receiving (812), and he’s tied for fourth with six receiving touchdowns.
- TE Mike Gesicki is the third option in Miami’s passing attack with a 10.3% target share.
- Per TruMedia, Hill has played 256 snaps on the perimeter and 146 in the slot.
- Waddle has played 329 snaps on the perimeter and 79 in the slot.
Browns Defense
- Cleveland has allowed 24.9 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Browns have allowed the eighth most yards rushing and the 20th most yards receiving per game to running backs.
- The Browns have given up the 17th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Cleveland has given up the fifth most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
- The Browns have allowed the most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Browns Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
Cleveland has a top-five-level offensive line that drives its premium run game. Miami has an average front with the addition of edge Bradley Chubb. Cleveland has a mild edge in the trenches in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- Cleveland is 4-4 against the spread this season.
- The Browns are 6-1-1 on overs this season.
- Browns QB Jacoby Brissett is 34-31-2 against the spread in his career.
- Brissett is 32-34-1 on overs in his career.
- Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is 17-24 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Stefanski is 22-18-1 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Browns Offense
- Cleveland is scoring 25 points per game, good for seventh in the league.
- The Browns are 21st in the league in yards passing per game and third in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, RB Nick Chubb is second in the league in yards rushing (841), and he’s second in yards after contact.
- RB Kareem Hunt has double-digit carries in six of his eight games this season. Hunt has only had four or more targets in three contests.
- WR Amari Cooper has a 27% target share and a 40.3% air yards share.
- WR Donovan Peoples-Jones has at least four targets in each of his last five games.
- TE Harrison Bryant is still a solid streaming option despite getting blanked in his last game because David Njoku is out this week.
Dolphins Defense
- Miami is allowing 24.9 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the third-fewest yards rushing per game and the seventh-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Miami has given up the 13th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Dolphins have allowed the seventh most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- Miami is allowing the third most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
This is What You’re Betting On in Dolphins vs. Browns
A bet on the Dolphins is a bet on an elite offense with an innovative play caller in McDaniel, and the NFL’s best wide receiver duo. While Waddle has been great, Hill had a historic first half. Hill has a real shot at breaching 2,000 yards receiving this season. If you’re betting on the Dolphins, their dynamic passing attack is what you are primarily betting on.
Miami now has a solid one-two punch at running back supported by a much better offensive line than they had last season. The Dolphins' defense, however, is much different than it was last year. The Dolphins just gave up 32-points to the Bears last week, as an example. That said, Miami has been good at limiting opposing running backs this season. Your biggest concern as a Dolphins bettor is Cleveland’s run game, behind their premium offensive line, beats up Miami, anyway.
A bet on the Browns is a bet on a 3-5 Browns team that is much more dangerous than their record shows. One of the bigger surprises from a sports betting perspective this season is Brissett’s Browns are 6-1-1 on overs this year. If you’re betting on Cleveland, you are betting on the Browns' offense to continue exceeding expectations. What you really need as a Browns' bettor is for this defense to show up as it did against Cincinnati two weeks ago.
This group has had that kind of effort in them all season, so it was good to see finally see it. If Cleveland’s pass rush can impact Tagovailoa as it did Joe Burrow, that’s a narrow path to the Browns coming out on top in this one. Your biggest concern as a Browns' bettor is their talented defense plays more like it has throughout the season and ends up getting torched by Miami’s dangerous offense.
Awards Market Ramifications: Tyreek Hill is an Offensive Player of the Year contender. Nick Chubb is an Offensive Player of the Year candidate. Mike McDaniel is a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Miami in winner pools. I’m going to have the Dolphins ranked ahead of the Giants, as an example, so I will be higher than consensus on Miami in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I have not yet locked in a Miami bet, but if I bet on this game that’s the direction I’m going.
Survivor Pool: Miami would be an aggressive option in survivor pools this week. While I wouldn’t outright rule them out as an option in that format, I don’t intend to use the Dolphins this week.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
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