NFL Analysis

5/7/24

7 min read

Predicting NFL's Biggest Sophomore Slumps of 2024

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) carries the ball against Las Vegas Raiders cornerback Jack Jones (18) in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The 2023 rookie class was one of the most productive in recent memory. C.J. Stroud took the league by storm, leading the Houston Texans to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Puka Nacua set the rookie record for most receiving yards (1,486), and Rashee Rice became Kansas City's No. 1 wide receiver, helping the Chiefs win their second consecutive Super Bowl.

But which standout rookies from the 2023 season are set to regress in 2024? Here are four players who are set to have sophomore slumps this season. 

Four NFL Players Who Could Suffer Sophomore Slumps

1. Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Nacua, Rice and Zay Flowers all got a lot of national attention for their strong rookie season. It certainly didn't hurt that all their teams made the playoffs, but that is beside the point. Jordan Addison had an incredible first season, racking up 911 receiving yards on 70 receptions.

Addison led all rookies in touchdown receptions (10) and averaged a whopping 8.4 yards per target. He was incredible for the Minnesota Vikings and was everything the team could have hoped for when it selected him at pick No. 23.

However, it feels pretty likely he won't reach the same numbers in 2024. The most obvious reason is that Kirk Cousins left the Vikings for the Atlanta Falcons. In the eight games Addison played with Cousins, he scored seven touchdowns and averaged 60.3 yards per game. He scored three times in the nine games without him and averaged 47.7 yards per game. J.J. McCarthy could be solid as a rookie, but there is no way he'll be as productive as Cousins.

It's also worth noting that most of Addison's production came when Justin Jefferson was out of the lineup because of a hamstring injury. Once Jefferson returned, Addison saw a major dip in his production. While we can assume Addison will be a better player in 2024, it's easy to see how his receiving numbers might not increase.


Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane
Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28), running against the Buffalo Bills during a game at Hard Rock Stadium, scored 11 touchdowns in 2023. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)

2. De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs had strong rookie seasons after being selected in Round 1, but the most exciting running back in the class was De'Von Achane. He scored 11 touchdowns on just 130 touches and helped the Miami Dolphins become one of the league’s most explosive offenses.

However, there are some good reasons why he could experience a sophomore slump. Despite only 103 carries, Achane totaled 800 rushing yards. That means Achane averaged 7.8 yards per carry, which led the NFL.

But how does that stack up against some of the other top running backs in NFL history? Here is the list of running backs that have averaged more than 6.5 yards per carry during an entire season with a minimum of at least 100 attempts since the NFL merger:

De’Von Achane (7.8)

That is the list. There have been only 12 running backs to average six yards per carry or more in a single season, but no one else has surpassed 6.4. That is how much more efficient and productive Achane was as a rookie than the rest of NFL history. So, saying he will regress (some) to the mean isn't a hot take. If he doesn't, we might be talking about the most explosive and dynamic running back in NFL history.

There is another reason why Achane could see a dip in production. The Dolphins traded away their 2025 third-round pick to select Jaylen Wright from Tennessee. Like Achane, Wright is known for his long speed and ability to create big plays.

While Achane isn’t in danger of losing his job, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Dolphins limit his touches to keep him healthy for the playoffs. Achane will still be a dynamic player in 2024, but expecting him to average anything close to 7.8 yards per attempt is absurd.


Los Angeles Rams defensive lineman Kobie Turner
Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Kobie Turner (91) celebrates a play with safety Russ Yeast (2) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

3. Kobie Turner, DT, Los Angeles Rams

Without looking, can you name who led all rookies in sacks last season?

It wasn't Will Anderson Jr., who won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, or Jalen Carter, who many believed was a generational pass-rushing prospect at defensive tackle. Nope, it was Kobie Turner of the Los Angeles Rams

After being selected at pick No. 89, Turner appeared in all 17 games and started four alongside Aaron Donald. He played 62 percent of the defensive snaps, recording 16 QB hits and eight tackles for a loss. Turner's most impressive stat was his nine sacks, which is a high number for a rookie defensive tackle. The last time a rookie defensive tackle had at least nine sacks was, coincidentally, Donald (9.0) during the 2014 season.

Could Turner be the next Donald? That seems unlikely. What is likely to happen is Turner will see a major decrease in his pass-rush productivity because Donald retired. Opposing offenses doubled Donald at an absurd rate, allowing Turner to have a bunch of 1-on-1 opportunities. That won't be the case in 2024 because Turner will likely see more attention from offensive lines.

There is no doubt that Turner is a good player, and judging a player by sacks alone is a bad way to evaluate a pass rusher. But his job will get a lot harder this season, and his production isn't likely to line up with his talent because of the increased difficulty of assignments.


Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta
Sam LaPorta (87) walks on stage during the Detroit Lions' uniform reveal event inside Ford Field in Detroit. (David Rodriguez Munoz-Detroit Free Press/USA TODAY Network)

4. Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions

In one of the best tight end classes in recent memory, Sam LaPorta was the most productive of the group. Not only did he lead all tight ends in receptions (86) and yards (886), but he also led the entire rookie class in receiving touchdowns (10).

His 10 receiving touchdowns are tied for the most all-time among rookie tight ends with Rob Gronkowski (2010). And LaPorta's 86 receptions are the most ever by a rookie tight end. 

So why might LaPorta have a sophomore slump? It has nothing to do with him and everything to do with all of Detroit's weapons. The Detroit Lions are loaded with playmakers, and it's only fair to assume that Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams will have bigger roles in 2024. We know that Amon-Ra St. Brown will continue to get his targets from the slot, and David Montgomery will still be in the rotation at running back. 

Defenses are more aware of how LaPorta wins, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get less action than he did as a rookie. It’s hard to score double-digit touchdowns, especially on an offense with this many weapons.

There have only been a handful of tight ends in NFL history to post multiple seasons of double-digit touchdowns, and only Gronkowski did it during the first two years of his career. Is there a chance LaPorta will be the next Gronk, and is he that type of receiving weapon? It's possible, but it seems unlikely.

Instead, expect to see LaPorta's touchdown production reduce, as the Lions have too many weapons that need the ball. He will still be among the league's most dynamic tight ends, but repeating his rookie season in terms of production will be extremely difficult. 

NFL Analysis

5/6/24

7 min read

Dak Prescott's Price Is Only Going Up — So Why Haven't Cowboys Signed Long-Term Deal?

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) drops back to pass against the Green Bay Packers in the first half of the 2024 NFC wild card game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys are all in on 2024. It’s become increasingly clear that this means less about putting all available resources into the upcoming season and instead using it as a tipping point for the team's future.

Finally get that playoff success that has escaped the franchise since the 1995 season (the last season they won the Super Bowl or even appeared in the NFC Championship Game)? Great! Keep the band together and spare no expense. Falter again in the playoffs in the divisional round or earlier? This team will look different.

The biggest piece that hinges on this upcoming season is QB Dak Prescott. Prescott will enter this season in the final year of his contract. Despite each side suggesting they want an extension, there has been no progress. That would set Prescott up to be a free agent following the season due to a no-tag clause in his deal.

A potential Prescott free agency could change the landscape of the entire league. But before we get there, let’s dive into what is at stake for all parties involved.

Why Are We Here?

That’s a great question! For maybe 31 other teams, we could expect a quarterback in this situation to be signed already. But for the Cowboys, this is a negotiation that appears to be in no rush. That also includes upcoming deals for CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons.

Despite three players whose new deals could put them among the top-paid players at their positions, Dallas does not want to set that market. The Cowboys are content with waiting out other deals, especially at quarterback, and reacting to them instead of being proactive with early agreements that could save them money in the deal's early years.

During a pre-draft press conference, Jerry Jones admitted they want to see what happens across the league before making a move.

"We'd like to see more leaves fall," Jones said. "We'd like to see more action. It's called option quarterback. I've spent my life [playing] option quarterback. I want to see some more cards played."

But those cards are only going to get more expensive to play. It’s as if you were sitting at a blackjack table, and after each player, before you went, your personal ante goes up.

There are quarterback contracts upcoming for Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa. We’re a year away from a potential Brock Purdy deal. Not all of those will top the $55 million per year or $184 million in three-year cash set by Joe Burrow’s market-leading contract. However, they could come close given the increase in the cap every year.

We’re likely looking at $50 million per year as the floor for most of these deals. If none of them top Burrow, the Cowboys could have an argument to keep Prescott below that figure, but it would not be a good one. Regardless of when this deal gets done, Prescott is slated to be the league’s highest-paid quarterback.


Haven't The Cowboys Been Here Before?

You would think once would be enough, but this isn’t even the first time the Cowboys have waited to commit to Prescott long-term.

When Prescott’s rookie deal expired in 2019, Dallas did not immediately extend the quarterback despite his strong performance. By EPA per play, Prescott was a top-10 quarterback among qualified passers during his rookie contract.

Instead, the Cowboys had him play on the franchise tag for the 2020 season, which cost $31.4 million and 14.4 percent of the cap. Despite the franchise tag figure being the average of the top five salaries at the position, Prescott had the highest cap hit in the league because other teams structured quarterback deals to keep the cap hits low.

When these two sides eventually came to an agreement, Prescott received the highest first-year cash figure at the time, $75 million. That was in part due to a $66 million signing bonus that remains the second-highest for a quarterback. Only Lamar Jackson’s $75 million from his contract last offseason beat it.

That large signing bonus allowed the Cowboys to spread out the biggest parts of the cap hits over five years, but Dallas has continued to restructure the deal and add to those figures. For 2024, Prescott will count for $55.1 million, 21.2 percent of the cap, the league's second-highest mark.


What Is The Cowboys’ End Goal Here?

Another great question! If the Cowboys are really just waiting out the other quarterback deals to see what happens at the top of the market, they’re only set to save a few million in total on the contract.

However, if Dallas had been proactive and signed Prescott earlier, the deal's structure could have significantly decreased his 2024 cap hit and created space to bring in more free agents to help in an “all-in” season. The risk greatly outweighs whatever reward there is from waiting.

The Cowboys' outlook is that Prescott must prove his worth in this upcoming season with a supporting cast worse than last year. The offensive line lost multiple starters, and the only major running back added was Ezekiel Elliott. Outside of Lamb and the up-and-down Brandin Cooks, the Cowboys are banking on development from somewhere, whether it be Jalen Tolbert or KaVontae Turpin playing a bigger role. 

If the Cowboys need to have playoff success for Jerry Jones to commit to the best players on this roster, it’s an unfair weight to put on those players with an objectively worse team around them. If those are the expectations, it’s only setting them up to fail with such a small window considered a success for the upcoming season.


What Happens If Prescott Doesn’t Sign Before The Season?

This is the most interesting scenario and possibly the most realistic. Because Prescott can’t be tagged, he’d be in a Kirk Cousins-like situation with the Vikings. Dallas can want him back all they want, but the Cowboys would have to deal with other teams jumping in. Quarterbacks like this don’t hit the market often, so teams get aggressive when they do.

Cousins was a 35-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles tear and still received $100 million guaranteed while the Atlanta Falcons were considering drafting a quarterback eighth overall.

Prescott will only turn 31 in July and has been one of the league's best quarterbacks during the past three years. From 2021-2023, Prescott ranks third in EPA per play.

If Prescott hits the open market, there will be plenty of suitors. Teams like the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos could be in the market for a quarterback. Then, there’s the New York Jets, who could be in the final year with Aaron Rodgers. There’s also the Miami Dolphins if they don’t sign Tagovailoa to an extension before the season.

Miami and Mike McDaniel could view Prescott as their Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams — a quarterback who adds more to an already effective offensive scheme. If Stafford retires, Prescott could also be Stafford for the Rams themselves. 

In this scenario, Prescott would easily become one of the league’s highest-paid players. That’s the leverage he has with the Cowboys, and it will only get more expensive. Dallas could want to wait, but Prescott will make his money no matter what or where it comes from. 

Dallas could realize that and pay him now, but the Cowboys had the chance to do that all offseason. Prescott could also be all-in for this season, betting on himself with the market waiting for him in the offseason.

That could leave the Cowboys left at the table with nothing. 

NFL Analysis

5/6/24

9 min read

Day 3 NFL Rookies Who Could Make Instant Impact

San Francisco 49ers safety Malik Mustapha
Wake Forest Demon Deacons safety Malik Mustapha (3) breaks up a pass intended for Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Jordan Faison (80) in the first quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL Draft is more than just the first round. The majority of NFL players are drafted on Day 3. And there are always a handful of rookies picked from Rounds 4-7 who make an impact right away. Look no further than Puka Nacua, who helped the Los Angeles Rams get back into the playoffs last year.

Who are the rookies that could step in right away and contribute in Year 1? Here are five Day 3 rookies to watch during the 2024 season.

Late-Round Picks Who Will Make Impact in 2024

Buffalo Bills running back Ray Davis
Kentucky Wildcats running back Ray Davis (1) runs with the ball against the Clemson Tigers in a game in the Gator Bowl at EverBank Stadium. (Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports)

Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills 

The Buffalo Bills want to be more balanced on offense moving forward with Josh Allen. While they can win a lot of games with him throwing 40-plus times, the Bills believe their best chance of winning in the playoffs is to be more balanced. That played out in the second half of the 2023 season when the Bills leaned more into the run game.

James Cook is a capable starter, but the Bills needed to add a better player behind him in 2024. Last year, Latavius Murray, Ty Johnson, Damien Harris and Leonard Fournette all got time in the backfield. The Bills addressed their backup running back need in Round 4, selecting Kentucky RB Ray Davis.

Davis is a short (5-foot-8) but powerful running back who can run between the tackles. He is a tough, competitive runner who should fit well in Buffalo. The biggest knocks on Davis entering the 2024 NFL Draft were his age (he will turn 25 in November) and his college workload (840 touches). 

But the Bills don’t need a developmental running back with upside. They need a competent No. 2 back that can spell Cook and carry the workload if needed. That is why Davis is such a perfect fit with the Bills.

It wouldn't be a surprise if Davis opened the season as Buffalo's clear No. 2, and by the time the season ended, he and Cook were sharing the backfield equally. Davis is the type of runner the Bills have been missing over the last few seasons, and his style should fare well when the weather starts to turn. Outside of Keon Coleman, it wouldn't be a shock at all to see Davis be the second-most productive Bills rookie this season.


Malik Mustapha, S, San Francisco 49ers

This was not a particularly strong safety class, but several potential starters fell to Day 3 of the NFL Draft. One name to watch is Malik Mustapha, who fell to the bottom of Round 4. The biggest reason why Mustapha fell in the draft despite 24 starts at Wake Forest is due to his coverage ability. While he can operate fine in two-high looks, he is not the type of safety that can match up with opposing tight ends and slot receivers.

Instead, Mustapha makes his money by making plays in the run game. He is a box safety who plays like a linebacker and has no fears when it comes to taking on guards in the run game. Mustapha has fantastic instincts in the run game and the athleticism to be a disruptive defender. His game is reminiscent of a healthy Jamal Adams, who can be effective as a blitzer and as a run defender. 

Mustapha could have a role right away for the San Francisco 49ers due to the injuries of Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. Both players suffered season-ending injuries, and it's unclear when they will be back on the field. The 49ers need another physical presence in the middle of the defense, and it wouldn't be a surprise if Mustapha was the other nickel linebacker with Fred Warner. 

Mustapha doesn’t have the ceiling of some of the other safeties in this class because he’s always going to be limited in coverage. But as a box safety that can become an enforcer, Mustapha landed in the perfect situation. Expect him to play a ton early in the season and earn a role on the defense moving forward.


Las Vegas Raiders linebacker Tommy Eichenberg
Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Tommy Eichenberg works out for NFL scouts during Pro Day at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center. (Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY-Sports)

Tommy Eichenberg, LB, Las Vegas Raiders

The biggest offseason goal for new coach Antonio Pierce was to improve the "spine" of the Las Vegas Raiders' defense. In the first week of free agency, the Raiders added Christian Wilkins to pair with Maxx Crosby, Tyree Wilson and Malcolm Koonce. They wanted to get better in the front seven, and they accomplished that goal.

But they did not draft a defensive player until Day 3 of the draft. One of their mid-round picks that is worth watching this year is linebacker Tommy Eichenberg, a fifth-round pick from Ohio State. During his career in Colombus, Ohio, Eichenberg started 27 games for the Buckeyes and racked up 266 tackles, including 21 tackles for a loss. However, an offseason hamstring injury forced him to miss a lot of pre-draft training, which could be why he fell to the fifth round. 

Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo give the Raiders two solid linebackers. But both will enter the final years of their contracts, and neither was drafted or signed by the current front office or coaching staff. Spillane is the most likely linebacker to stay on the field because Deablo has been unable to stay healthy for much of his career. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Eichenberg take his spot in the starting lineup as he would give the Raiders another plus run defender.

Eichenberg’s ability to stop the run is the reason he could get on the field a lot as a rookie. He has fantastic instincts and the power to stop runners in their tracks. While his coverage ability is a bit of a question mark, there is no doubt that he can be a net positive for the Raiders' defense right away with his intensity and football IQ.

Eichenberg projects as a starting linebacker in the NFL. The only question is how long will it take him to steal a job away from a veteran? 


New York Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Purdue running back Tyrone Tracy Jr (RB25) during the 2024 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants

The New York Giants made the (wise) decision to let Saquon Barkley walk in free agency after six years of production. The Giants are in a semi-rebuild, so throwing even more money at a running back who has struggled to stay healthy didn't make sense. Instead, the Giants signed Devin Singletary to a modest contract and didn’t select a running back in the first four rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft. However, they added one of this class's most intriguing backs in former wide receiver Tyrone Tracy Jr. 

Tracy started his career with the Iowa Hawkeyes, appearing in 38 games as a wide receiver. But after modest production, he transferred to Purdue and started five games at receiver (2022). Ahead of the 2023 season, Tracy transitioned to running back, which likely saved his career. In his first year playing the position, Tracy led the Big Ten in yards per carry (6.3) and scored eight rushing touchdowns.

While Tracy isn’t ready to be a full-time running back (146 career carries in college), he is an incredible athlete who is a threat to score on any play. He posted a 9.78 RAS score, which ranks 42nd all-time (out of 1,903 running backs) after posting a 40-inch vertical jump at 209 pounds. 

Only Singletary is ahead of him on the depth chart, so Tracy should find a role right away. He is the most explosive running back on the roster and could have a Tony Pollard-like impact on the Giants in Year 1. 


Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Cam Hart
Notre Dame cornerback Cam Hart (5) intercepts a pass intended for Wisconsin wide receiver Kendric Pryor (3) during the second quarter of their game at Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill.

Cam Hart, CB, Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers used a lot of their early draft capital to upgrade the offense, adding Joe Alt (offensive tackle) and Ladd McConkey (wide receiver) with their first two selections. The front office knew that they are in Year 1 of a rebuild, and it wouldn’t be possible to fill every hole in one offseason.

However, one player to monitor is Cam Hart, a cornerback that the Chargers selected at pick No. 140 (fifth round). Hart started 33 games at Notre Dame, recording 19 pass deflections and three interceptions. His overall production was modest, but his size (6-foot-3, 202 pounds) and his athleticism (9.00 RAS) are excellent. Hart’s game lacks refinement and his change-of-direction skills are poor, but it’s not hard to see how Hart could get on the field as a rookie. 

The Chargers' only established cornerback is Asante Samuel Jr. He was exclusively an outside cornerback last season. It remains to be seen how Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter view Samuel in their defense.

If Samuel gets moved to the slot, that opens up an opportunity for Hart to be one of the starting outside cornerbacks for the Chargers. Here are the other cornerbacks on the roster besides Samuel and their snap counts from the 2023 season: 

Kristin Fulton644
Ja'Sir Taylor534
Deane Leonard222
Chris Wilcox, Matt Hankins0

Needless to say, the Chargers have a big opening at cornerback, and Hart’s size, length and athleticism could make him a Day 1 starter. While we should expect that transition to be bumpy, Hart could easily be the best option on the outside with Kristian Fulton and Samuel in the slot. One way or another, expect Hart to be on the field in Week 1.

Fantasy & Betting

5/3/24

12 min read

Fantasy Football 2024: Ranking This Year's Top 24 Players

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs in the first half in Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 NFL Draft is in the books, and we are officially in fantasy football season. 

While most home leagues won’t start drafting for another three or four months, it’s never too early to see who the top fantasy options are heading into the new year. 

With that in mind, here are the top 24 players in standard PPR leagues going into the 2024 season:

24 Top Fantasy Football Players for 2024

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

If you have the No. 1 pick in your fantasy leagues, it’s hard not to select Christian McCaffrey. There are concerns about his age (28 in June) and all of the work the San Francisco 49ers have put on his body over the past two seasons. 

Still, he scored 21 touchdowns last season and recorded more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage. The 49ers might limit his workload some in 2024, but expect him to be heavily involved in the passing game and be the No. 1 option in the red zone. 


2. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb had a monster season in 2023, setting career highs in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns. He and Dak Prescott clicked like never before, resulting in massive fantasy numbers. 

The Dallas Cowboys did not add any weapons this offseason to limit Lamb’s workload. In fact, they lost a few key players such as Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup. Lamb is on track for another huge fantasy season in 2024.


Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) reacts with Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31) during the game at U.S. Bank Stadium. (Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)

3. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson was the No. 1 pick in most fantasy drafts last season, but an early injury caused him to miss a significant chunk of the season. 

When he returned, Kirk Cousins was out of the lineup (Achilles), but that didn’t stop Jefferson from posting huge numbers. The upside might not quite be there with Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy as quarterbacks, but Jefferson is still one of the league’s most explosive playmakers on a good offense with an excellent playcaller.


4. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill fell just short of his goal of 2,000 receiving yards last season, but he wasn’t far off. He scored 13 touchdowns and led the league in receiving yards again. It will be tough for Hill to replicate those numbers, but if anyone can, it's him. 

The good news is there are far fewer questions at quarterback than there were a year ago, and Hill is now entering Year 3 with the Miami Dolphins. He is a threat to score on any play and is one of the most fun players to have in fantasy every year.


5. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

It’s difficult to say that Bijan Robinson was a “disappointment” as a rookie after racking up more than 1,400 yards from scrimmage and scoring eight touchdowns. 

However, he wasn’t quite as dominant or productive in fantasy as anticipated. Now that Arthur Smith is gone, the Falcons are leaning toward Robinson as the workhorse back. 

Atlanta's offense should improve in 2024, leading to more scoring opportunities. He is the clear-cut No. 2 RB this year, behind only McCaffrey.


6. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a healthy Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase play together. Given both players’ history, it’s tough to rely on them. 

However, Chase is arguably the league’s best receiver and is coming off another solid 1,200-yard season. If Burrow can stay healthy, watch out as Chase enters his age-24 season. 


Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown runs out of tunnel before start of game
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) is introduced before a 2024 NFC Wild-Card game against the Los Angeles Rams at Ford Field. (Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports)

7. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

If you are looking for a safe pick in Round 1, look no further than Amon-Ra St. Brown. In the last two seasons, St. Brown has caught 225 passes for 2,676 yards and 16 touchdowns. 

His week-to-week floor is incredibly high because the Lions pepper him with targets. You would like to see more touchdown upside from St. Brown, but the gaudy reception totals make him a steal in PPR leagues.


8.  Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua went from a Day 3 pick during the 2023 NFL Draft to one of the best fantasy seasons in recent memory. 

As a rookie, Nacua caught 105 passes, totaling 1,575 yards. After getting into the end zone just six times on 172 looks (targets + carries), the next step for Nacua is to score more touchdowns. 

Look for the Los Angeles Rams to lean on him even more this season, especially given Cooper Kupp's age (31 in June) and injury history. 


9. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Since joining the Philadelphia Eagles, A.J. Brown has averaged a whopping 87 yards per game, and he's only getting better. 

He saw a career-high 158 targets last season, catching 106 passes for 1,456 yards. With Kellen Moore installed as the offensive coordinator, look for Brown to play more slot snaps than ever, which should allow him to rack up the receptions. 

He is one of the best value picks after the top six selections in fantasy leagues.


10. Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia has had a lot of success with running backs in the last two seasons. Miles Sanders and D'Andre Swift made the Pro Bowl after winning the Eagles’ starting running back job. But Philadelphia wanted to upgrade that spot this offseason, so it signed Saquon Barkley to a three-year deal averaging more than $12.5 million.

Barkley should be much more dangerous and effective than Swift and Sanders, but the biggest question will be the touchdown upside. Jalen Hurts gobbles up most of the goal-line touches, which could limit Barkley's ceiling. 

However, this could be a match made in heaven. The Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and Moore loves nothing more than to run the ball when his team gets close to the end zone. 


New York Jets receiver Garrett Wilson
New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) fails to catch a pass while being defended by New York Giants cornerback Amani Oruwariye (20) during a game at MetLife Stadium. (Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports)

11. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets

Garrett Wilson was a first-round pick in most fantasy drafts last season, and that backfired after the Aaron Rodgers injury. Wilson had fewer receiving yards and touchdowns than he did as a rookie and ended up being one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football. 

It's not his fault the New York Jets couldn’t solve their quarterback situation, but it shows how reliant he is on good quarterback play.

Considering Wilson at the end of Round 1 of your fantasy drafts is not a bad idea given his upside. If Rodgers stays healthy, Wilson could be the highest-scoring receiver in the league. 

He’ll turn 24 in July and has managed to be productive with the likes of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White and Tim Boyle throwing him the football. If Rodgers stays on the field for most of the season, Wilson is a lock to be a top-five fantasy receiver.


12. Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Nacua wasn’t the only Rams player to have a surprising 2023 fantasy season. Kyren Williams totaled 1,350 yards from scrimmage and scored 15 touchdowns despite playing just 12 games. He averaged 95.3 rushing yards per game, becoming Sean McVay’s workhorse running back. 

The Rams drafted Blake Corum in Round 3 this year, but that shouldn't have a significant impact on Williams' fantasy upside. He is an RB1 going into the 2024 season and should get plenty of first-round consideration. 


13. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions were careful not to overwork Jahmyr Gibbs in his rookie season, giving him just 234 touches in 15 regular season games. They might not have a choice in 2024. 

Gibbs is too explosive to keep off the field, and he showed that throughout the playoffs. 

Even if Gibbs only averages a few more touches per game this season, he is a player worth Round 1 consideration because of his receiving upside. Gibbs caught 52 passes last year and 70-plus catches isn’t out of the equation this season. Everything points to a massive sophomore season for Gibbs. 


14. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

It wasn’t that long ago that Jonathan Taylor was the consensus No. 1 player in fantasy football. During the 2021 season, he racked up 2,171 yards from scrimmage and scored 20 touchdowns. 

In the two seasons since then, he has scored just 12 touchdowns and rushed for only 1,602 yards.

The good news is that Taylor is fully healthy, and his contract status is not in question. He is going into his age-25 season and will play on an offense full of talent. He is no longer a threat to challenge for the No. 1 RB spot, but he is still a good option anytime in Round 2. 


San Francisco 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) celebrates after a play against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. (Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports)

15. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk had a massive breakout season in 2023, developing into the 49ers' No. 1 receiver. He averaged a whopping 17.9 yards per reception on 105 targets and 12.8 yards per target. Aiyuk’s yardage total has increased every year since being drafted (2020), and he is a perfect fit in Kyle Shanahan's offense.

The only real question mark with Aiyuk is whether he'll play in San Francisco this year. There were plenty of trade rumors throughout draft season, as Aiyuk is set to play on the fifth-year option. 

The expectation is he'll be with the 49ers. Despite his incredible production, he is a bit riskier than the receivers ahead of him.


16. Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

After a successful rookie season, Chris Olave improved on all of his numbers in 2023. He caught 15 more passes, but the rest of his production was similar. 

The hope is that Olave can take a big step forward in Year 3, especially with Michael Thomas gone and Derek Carr in Year 2 with the New Orleans Saints. Olave is only 23, and this is the year that most receivers break out.

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Olave be much more productive this season.


17. Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Travis Etienne posted another 1,400-yard season in 2023 when he took on the lead-back role for the Jacksonville Jaguars. His yards per touch took a dramatic plunge, but he was a much more prolific touchdown scorer. 

After racking up 325 touches last year, look for the Jaguars to lean on him even more this season. Etienne is an excellent value anytime after Round 1.


18. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

Davante Adams had a "down" year for his standards, totaling just 1,144 receiving yards in 17 games. However, he caught more than 100 passes for the fourth straight season and remains one of the NFL's most consistent receivers. 

He'll be paired with Luke Getsy again this year, so he should be involved in the offense again. However, the upside isn't as high as it once was, with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell competing for the starting quarterback spot.


De'Von Achane vs. Commanders
Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Washington Commanders during the second half at FedExField. (Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports)

19. De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

There might not be a more exciting player in the NFL than De’Von Achane. Despite playing only 11 games last year, Achanne had four games with more than 100 rushing yards and three games with multiple touchdowns. 

Injuries are the biggest concern, but he could be a league-winner if he stays healthy. No running back (outside of McCaffrey) has as much upside as Achane. 


20. Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs moved from Las Vegas to Green Bay this offseason, and that should only improve his efficiency. Just two years ago, Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage. 

But after a lot of change on offense in Las Vegas, his numbers took a big hit in 2023. Expect them to increase now that he is with the Packers. Jacobs is a well-rounded back who should get more goal-line opportunities this season, and don't discount his ability as a pass catcher. 


21. DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears

DJ Moore is one of the league’s most consistent receivers, posting another season with at least 1,200 yards. The 2023 season was the best of his career. 

He caught 96 passes for 1,364 yards and nine touchdowns. He'll have to deal with another quarterback change with No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams in town, but that should only help him after playing last season with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent. 


22. Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rachaad White started every game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season, totaling more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage and scoring nine touchdowns. 

Tampa Bay’s offense remains intact after re-signing Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. White will be the bell cow again this season and provides a nice floor for fantasy managers looking for a quality running back at the end of Round 2. 


Josh Allen breaks tackles from Steelers defenders
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs the ball in the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 2024 AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. (Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports)

23. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills 

While we wouldn’t recommend taking a quarterback early in your fantasy drafts, Josh Allen might be the exception. No quarterback in the league has his rushing touchdown upside along with the ability to throw for 4,300-plus yards every season. 

Allen has thrown 29 or more touchdowns in four straight seasons and scored 53 rushing touchdowns since entering the NFL. His lack of weapons is a concern entering the 2024 season, but he is the QB1 for fantasy football.


24. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

There are several young tight ends who have made the game really exciting. However, none of them possess the week-to-week consistency of Travis Kelce

While last year was a “down” year for Kelce, he still caught 93 passes in 15 games. It was clear he was dealing with a knee injury early in the season, but he is 100 percent healthy entering the 2024 offseason and should be in line for another big year.

NFL Analysis

5/2/24

5 min read

Surprise NFL Players Who Could Get Traded, Cut After 2024 Draft

San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel sits a podium before pre-Super Bowl interview
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) during a press conference before Super Bowl LVIII at Hilton Lake Las Vegas Resort and Spa. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

With the 2024 NFL Draft behind us, rosters for all 32 NFL teams are taking shape. But as we all know, roster building is a year-round process. Teams will make more moves in the coming weeks and months as they prepare for training camp in August. A bunch of rookies are coming in so other players look like the odd man out.

Let’s look at some players in that situation after this past week’s draft. 

Surprise Cut, Trade Candidates

New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore
New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) during minicamp at the Ochsner Sports Performance Center. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)

Marshon Lattimore, CB, New Orleans Saints

There have been on-and-off discussions around the league about whether or not the New Orleans Saints would trade Marshon Lattimore this offseason. 

The Saints quietly renegotiated his contract last December to allow the possibility of a trade, but it would only make sense from a cap standpoint if it happened after June 1. The speculation will only grow with New Orleans trading up in the second round for Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry.


Carolina Panthers running back Miles Sanders (6) breaks the tackle attempt of New Orleans Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) and safety Jordan Howden (31). (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)

Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers used a second-round selection on Texas RB Jonathon Brooks, who will team up with Chuba Hubbard. 

The Panthers signed Miles Sanders last offseason to a four-year, $25.4 million contract, and he has $6 million guaranteed this season. If Carolina trades him, it’d likely need to absorb some of that money.


Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks James Bradberry, center, and Darius Slay, right
Philadelphia Eagles cornerback James Bradberry (24) celebrates with cornerback Darius Slay (2) and linebacker Christian Elliss (53) after his interception against the Buffalo Bills. (Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports)

James Bradberry, CB, Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles made it clear they needed to improve the secondary in the draft, and they did, selecting Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell in the first round and trading up for Iowa’s Cooper DeJean in the second round. 

James Bradberry was a disappointment last season, and it’s fair to wonder what his role will be if Mitchell and/or DeJean prove they deserve to be on the field right away alongside Darius Slay.


Treylon Burks
Tennessee Titans wide receiver Treylon Burks (16) catches a pass against Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. (9) during the first half at Nissan Stadium. (Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)

Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans signed Calvin Ridley to a massive contract in free agency, adding him alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks

Despite that, they still have quietly been in the receiver market, and there was some talk in league circles that they considered Rome Odunze with the No. 7 pick before settling on Alabama OT JC Latham. 

After the draft, they scheduled a meeting with Bengals free agent WR Tyler Boyd. Tennessee’s actions seem to indicate that its front office, which didn't draft Burks, and its new coaching staff aren’t too high on the former first-round pick, so he could be available.


Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers dabbled with the idea of trading Deebo Samuel during draft week but never received a good enough offer. 

The plan is to retain Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. If a team becomes desperate for a receiver in the coming months because of an injury and shows interest in Samuel, the 49ers could move him. The only scenario I see that happening is if the trade involves a player returning to San Francisco. 

Otherwise, the 49ers are prepared to run it back.


New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) throws a pass against the New York Jets. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)

Bailey Zappe, QB, New England Patriots

Bailey Zappe started the final six games of last season, but he clearly didn’t show enough for the new leaders in New England. 

The New England Patriots signed Jacoby Brissett, drafted Drake Maye at No. 3 and took a flier on Tennessee QB Joe Milton in the sixth round. That makes Zappe the odd man out. 

It’s hard to envision much of a trade market for Zappe, who was cut last year and went unclaimed on waivers. His time in New England could be nearing an end, barring something unforeseen.


Carolina Panthers wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. (88) with the ball. (Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

Terrace Marshall, WR, Carolina Panthers

Terrace Marshall has been trying to leave Carolina since last season and received permission to seek a trade, only to find there wasn’t much of a market. 

After trading for Diontae Johnson and drafting Xavier Legette, it’s hard to see Marshall getting much playing time entering the final year of his rookie contract. A fresh start just makes too much sense.


Miami Dolphins running back Jeff Wilson Jr. (23) runs through the Buffalo Bills defense in Miami Gardens.

Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins drafted Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright in the fourth round, adding him to the mix with De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. 

Miami, which is tight against the cap, would clear $1.2M if it moved on from Jeff Wilson Jr.


Pittsburgh Steelers offensive tackle Dan Moore Jr. (65) prepares to block against Tennessee Titans linebacker Arden Key (49). (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Dan Moore Jr., OT, Pittsburgh Steelers

Dan Moore Jr. has started 49 games in three seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but his time as a starter could end with the drafting of Troy Fautanu. 

Moore had his fair share of struggles, but Pittsburgh could consider keeping him as a reserve option. He’s entering the final year of his rookie contract.

NFL Analysis

5/2/24

11 min read

Ranking NFL's Top 5 Defenses After 2024 Draft

Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95)
Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95), defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson (94) and defensive end Alex Wright (91) celebrate after a tackle during the second half against the Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

With the 2024 NFL Draft completed, rosters across the NFL are mostly set. As we get a good look at what teams could look like for the upcoming season, we can get a better idea of each team's quality and start to predict who the best will be.

Today, we will predict the league's five best defenses. Just like our offensive rankings, this is a season-long prediction of the best overall units. 

Defenses can be harder to project and sustain season to season, but many elements of last year’s best defenses remain the same. Still, it would not be surprising to see one of these teams drop out of the top five or for a surprising team to end up here by season’s end.

Let’s take a swing at the top five defenses of 2024:

NFL'S TOP 5 DEFENSES AFTER 2024 DRAFT

New England Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon
Matthew Judon (9) and cornerback Christian Gonzalez, back from injury, will strengthen what is one of the better defenses in the league. Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

5. New England Patriots

You’d be forgiven if you missed how good the New England defense was last season in the midst of a 4-13 season. The Patriots were ninth in defensive DVOA, fourth in EPA per play and seventh in success rate.

There’s certainly a Bill Belichick factor to that, but it’s not as if the New England Patriots went out and completely changed the coaching staff. Jerod Mayo could have his own philosophy, but he came up playing under Belichick and was heavily involved in the defense as a coach.

The Patriots also kept most of their defense intact. After placing the transition tag on safety Kyle Dugger, the two sides agreed to a long-term extension. Dugger is one of the more versatile safeties in the league, bouncing around from deep to the slot to the box.

Having Dugger can help mitigate New England's two losses on defense, Myles Bryant and Jalen Mills. This has been a defensive back-heavy unit, as the Patriots played dime on a league-leading 25 percent of snaps last season. They’ve been one of the best defenses against the run, allowing the fewest yards per rush in the league. 

New England should get a full season from second-year CB Christian Gonzalez. Before his injury, Gonzalez played well and held up in coverage despite being targeted often. He finished 45th in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap, while he had three passes defensed and a sack in four games played.

Matthew Judon will also return from injury after he was lost four games into the season. Judon did have four sacks through those four games. His return will help a pass rush that was 23rd in pressure rate and relied on heavy blitzes with six or more pass rushers (third-highest rate in the league).


Baltimore Ravens linebacker Roquan Smith, left, and defensive back Kyle Hamilton
Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (14) and linebacker Roquan Smith (0) anchor a top-notch NFL defense. Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

4. Baltimore Ravens

Mike Macdonald is gone, but many elements of the Baltimore Ravens' defense will stay the same. Zach Orr is the new defensive coordinator after spending the past two years as the team's inside linebackers coach, working closely with Macdonald. 

Most of the personnel losses will be covered by players brought in or already on the roster. The great thing about the Ravens' defense is there is a star to work around at every level: Justin Madubuike on the line, Roquan Smith on the second level and Kyle Hamilton in the secondary.

Madubuike re-signed and will help unlock the defensive line by keeping his pass-rush skills in the interior. His presence inside allowed the Ravens to disguise the outside pass rushers and create 1-on-1 or free rushers while sending players from everywhere in the pass rush.

Smith is such a force on the second level that he makes the job of the other linebackers easier. That sparked the development of Patrick Queen during the last year and a half. Queen went from a liability to a defender who could play to his strengths next to Smith.

With Queen in Pittsburgh, that role will likely go to 2023 third-round pick Trenton Simpson, but Smith can help smooth that transition.

In the secondary, Hamilton can do everything. He can play deep, in the slot, in the box and on the line. He’s an impact player at every spot. The loss of Geno Stone playing deep will hurt, but a healthy season of Marcus Williams could help, as well as more playing time for Ar’Darius Washington.

There weren’t many new additions on the defense, but 2024 first-round pick Nate Wiggins could make an impact on the outside opposite Marlon Humphrey with Arthur Maulet in the slot. Wiggins is thin but played good press-man coverage at Clemson and could solve Batlimore's CB2 issue. 

Baltimore also has some signs of regression that could help. Despite being the best defense in the league by points allowed per drive, this unit was one of the worst red zone defenses. That typically trends toward the overall level of the defense from year to year, meaning the Ravens could be better in that area. 


Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones
Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) is introduced prior to a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. (Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)

3. Kansas City Chiefs

By the time the Super Bowl came around, there was not a defense playing better than the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s not just because there were only two defenses still playing by the time the Super Bowl came around — take how the Chiefs were playing and compare it to any defense at any other point in the season.

Most of the main pieces return on this unit that played so well throughout the regular season. It carried the team and allowed the offense to find its balance for the playoff run. L’Jarius Sneed is gone after he was traded to the Tennessee Titans, but the Chiefs appear to have faith in their younger corners to replace him.

Joshua Williams, a 2022 fourth-round pick, was fifth among cornerbacks in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap last season and led all corners with at least 100 coverage snaps in completion rate allowed. Jaylen Watson, a 2022 seventh-round pick, was 14th in completion rate allowed and about average on a per-coverage snap basis.

So much of the secondary will revolve around Trent McDuffie and everything he does for it. McDuffie was the best defensive player in the Super Bowl and showed he could be a superstar. He has played outside, in the slot and could switch between the two during the season.

The Chiefs also kept their most important pass rusher, Chris Jones, with a big extension. Jones was 12th in pressures among defenders in the regular season. His presence inside changes how Kansas City can attack with a four-man pass rush and with pressure packages under Steve Spagnuolo that can create chaos. No team converted sacks than the Chiefs, who finished with a league-high 9.3 percent sack rate.

Kansas City had all of its defensive success last season without forcing turnovers. Just 9.5 percent of opposing drives against the Chiefs ended in a turnover, which ranked 23rd. With some regression in that area, this defense could top their fundamentally sound defense with more big-impact plays.


New York Jet cornerback Sauce Gardner
New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner (1) might be the best cornerback in the NFL and is a big reason for the Jets' success on defense. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

2. New York Jets

This New York Jets defense is just good everywhere. It’s a well-built and well-coordinated unit at or near the top of the league in almost every category. They were third in defensive DVOA while second in EPA per play and success rate. Last year, only the Ravens prevented touchdowns on a per-drive basis better than the Jets. 

Most of this unit has stayed together with a few additions that should help. The depth of the defensive line was a strength in the past few seasons — to the point where a player like Bryce Huff could be used as a third-down pass-rush specialist — though that depth has been taken away a bit.

Still, the Jets added Haason Reddick, who has been one of the best pressure creators on all downs during the past three seasons. Plus, they hope to get development out of former first-round picks Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald.

Creating pressure with four is a staple of the Robert Saleh defense. The Jets were fifth in pressure rate last season with the league's second-lowest blitz rate. Like some of the other defenses on this list, having someone like Quinnen Williams inside can make things easier for those on the edge by pulling attention away from the outside rushers.

The Jets do not lack stars behind the line, and if the defensive line doesn't have the same impact, that is where the strength of the 2024 defense could be.

Quincy Williams is a canon at linebacker, rangy with a spear-like tackle. Of his tackles, 70.5 percent produced a positive play for the defense, which led linebackers by a significant margin.

In the secondary, Sauce Gardner might be the league's best cornerback. He’s been a shutdown player during his first two years in the league. He was fourth in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap in 2023.

However, D.J. Reed might be one of the NFL's best CB2s, allowing the Jets' corners to play sides without much worry about the dropoff in quality. Then, there is Michael Carter, who was one of the league's best slot corners last season.

At any point, the Jets have a positional group that can take over a game and make the defense look like a dominant unit. 


Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett
Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95), the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, leads what might be the best defense in the NFL. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

1. Cleveland Browns

This Cleveland Browns defense was incredible last season under Jim Schwartz. While Cleveland was eclipsed by Baltimore in defensive DVOA, the Browns ranked first in EPA per play and success rate. By EPA per pass play, there was as big of a gap between the Browns and the No. 2 team as the No. 2 and No. 5 teams.

If the Jets don’t have the best cornerback trio in the league, the Browns do. Denzel Ward has been great as a No. 1, as have Greg Newsome and Martin Emerson. Despite some contract disputes — Newsome and Emerson both hoping for extensions — Cleveland should get at least one more season from this trio. They’re both under contract through 2025.

Last season, the Browns played the league's highest rate of man coverage at 40.9 percent. Only six other teams were at 30 percent. That rate of man puts a lot of pressure on the corners, who have held up and locked down receivers at all three spots. 

During a breakout season, safety Grant Deplit was hurt at the end of the year. But Delpit's return will give the Browns a versatile safety that can be used anywhere. Delpit and Juan Thornhill make a dangerous safety duo.

With so much going on with the Cleveland defense last season, it could be easy to overlook what LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah did. He was all over the field and had an insane 20 tackles for loss. Even at 221 pounds, he can fly downhill and holds up well in coverage.

Of course, there is Myles Garret, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Garrett gets so much attention on the line but can still create pressure and get to the quarterback. The Browns kept Za’Darius Smith as the second edge and added Quinton Jefferson in free agency. They also drafted Michael Hall Jr. to play inside with Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris.

Only 24.8 percent of opposing drives ended in a score against the Browns, which was the lowest rate in the league since the 2019 Bills and Patriots held opponents to scoring under a quarter of the time. 50.5 percent of opposing drives ended in a punt, the 11th-highest rate for a team since 2000.

The Browns don’t have to be that dominant again to be the league’s best defense, but they have the potential to do so. 

NFL Analysis

5/2/24

7 min read

2025 NFL Draft: Can Shedeur Sanders Be Next Year's Top Pick?

Upper body image of Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders with the ball in his hands, looking downfield to throw. He's in a white jersey and black helmet
Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) throws the ball against the UCLA Bruins in the first half at Rose Bowl. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

It will be a while before we see another quarterback class like the one in the 2024 NFL Draft. Six quarterbacks were selected in the top 12 picks, and three came off the board with the first three selections.

In most drafts, Jayden Daniels (No. 2) and Drake Maye (No. 3) would be sure-fire No. 1 overall picks, but not this year. It was one of the best and deepest quarterback classes in recent memory.

Teams that missed out on quarterbacks this year will turn their attention to 2025 and will likely be disappointed. There isn't a Caleb Williams-level prospect or a Drake Maye-type prospect.

However, one player who received a ton of attention last year was Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders. Outside of being Deion Sanders' son, Shedeur had a huge year in his first season with the Buffaloes, completing more than 69 percent of his passes and throwing 27 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Colorado averaged 28.2 points per game, a massive increase from 2022 (15.4 PPG).

Right now, Sanders is the favorite to be the No. 1 overall selection (+100 on DraftKings) in the 2025 NFL Draft. But is that warranted?

Let's examine Sanders to see if he really could be the first player picked in next year's draft.

Shedeur Sanders' Scouting Report

From a scouting perspective, there is a lot to like about Sanders the prospect.

He has good size (6-foot-2, 215 pounds) and is athletic and elusive in the open field. Sanders doesn't use his speed as a runner (yet), but that is the next stage of his progression because he was primarily a pocket passer in 2023.

His greatest strength is passing from the pocket, making him an intriguing prospect. His footwork isn't perfect, but he has sound technique and is more than comfortable moving around the pocket to avoid pressure.

One of his biggest strengths is his ability to stand tall during chaos and make throws, something most NFL quarterbacks still struggle with.

But that can also be his downfall because he takes way too many sacks (50 times in 11 games).

To compare, Williams was sacked 36 times in 12 games last season, which was far too many. If Sanders can clean that up during the 2024 season, there really won't be many flaws in his game as a passer.

Sanders is hyper-accurate on short to intermediate passes — Colorado's offense spammed the middle of the field last season. He knows how to throw with touch and can use his arm talent to drive the ball to the sideline. In every game he played, there were multiple NFL throws that must have made scouts giddy.

The No. 1 reason Sanders has a chance to go high in next year's draft is he seems to play better when it matters most. In the team's opening game against TCU, Colorado scored touchdowns on its last three possessions (not including kneel-downs) to defeat the No. 17 Horned Frogs.

Two weeks later, Sanders led Colorado on a 98-yard touchdown drive against Colorado State after getting the ball down eight points with just 2:06 left on the clock. The drive's biggest play was a 45-yard touchdown pass on second-and-14 with only 46 seconds left.

That put Colorado in a position to tie the game on a 2-point conversion, which the team converted.

Colorado won the game in double overtime after Sanders threw back-to-back touchdowns.

Anytime the Buffaloes were in a close game, Sanders always seemed to make the play to help them win. That is one of the most difficult attributes to find in a franchise quarterback: Can they make big-time plays when the team needs them the most? For the better part of 2023, the answer was a resounding yes for Sanders.


Where Can Shedeur Sanders Improve?

For Sanders to contend for the No. 1 pick, he must show off his running ability more. He finished the 2023 season with -77 rushing yards and four touchdowns. A lot of the negative yardage was due to the 50 sacks he took, another critical area he has to clean up this year.

His willingness to stand tall in the pocket is admirable, but he needs to show that he can escape dirty pockets and prove he can be a threat as a runner. No one is saying he needs to be the next Jayden Daniels, but if Sanders can keep defenses honest with his legs, he'll be a much better quarterback because of it.

Due to a back injury, he was unable to finish the season, and he took a lot of hits last year. Scrambling out of pressure and avoiding being sacked as often should be priority No. 1 for him this year.

If Sanders can do all that and maintain his passing production, there is no reason he shouldn't be considered the draft's top quarterback. He has the best combination of size, accuracy, arm talent and feel for the game of all the quarterbacks in this class. And that was with only one season of D1 college football under his belt.

It's only fair to expect him to improve with more playing time.


Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders drops back to throw. He's in a white uniform and black helmet and is the only player in frame with the crowd blurry behind him
Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) throws the ball against the UCLA Bruins in the first half at Rose Bowl. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Final Word

Sanders has all the traits to be the No. 1 pick in next year's draft, and it wouldn't shock anyone if that ends up being the case. But if he isn't the first quarterback off the board, it likely won't be due to his ability.

There are some looming questions about how he will make the transition to the NFL after being coached by his dad. Several incidents on social media in the past few days could scare teams. Just this week, Sanders criticized a former teammate on Twitter (X), which was not well-received by many around the sports world.

While this incident is minor in the grand scheme of things, it will be something teams remember during the draft process. Most front offices prefer their franchise quarterback to be off social media altogether, so these types of interactions certainly won't be looked upon well by NFL teams. In fact, Sanders' odds of being the No. 1 picked recently dropped because of these Twitter comments.

Plus, there have been some rumblings Deion will try to prevent certain teams from selecting Shedeur early in next year's draft. No one knows exactly which teams Deion would prefer his son not to be drafted by, but the fact that this rumor is even out there might make teams a little nervous about selecting Shedeur.

We will see if that is even the case — Deion shot down "some" of those rumors — but there could be franchises that don't want to deal with the Deion Sanders experience. Whether that is right or wrong is debatable, but teams will undoubtedly not like the unnecessary drama and attention that might come with selecting Deion's son.

The draft process can be ruthless and, honestly, unfair to quarterback prospects. As we saw at times this year with Williams, nothing is out of bounds for high-profile prospects. That is expected to be the case this year with Sanders, who might be college football's biggest star entering the year.

Time will tell how that process unfolds, but make no mistake: Sanders has the talent and traits to be the 2025 NFL Draft's No. 1 pick.