NFL Analysis
1/27/24
8 min read
Best Fits For Remaining NFL Head Coach Openings
Two NFL head coaching vacancies remain. The Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons all made their hires this week, so the Washington Commanders and Seattle Seahawks will be the last to make a move.
With just two spots left and big coaching names such as Bill Belichick and Mike Vrabel who could be left out, let’s dive into what these two open jobs entail, who could be the right fit for each and why filling these vacancies might take a bit with some coaches a bit busy on the sidelines this weekend.
Who Are Possible Coaching Fits?
Washington Commanders
The job at hand: Washington is under new ownership, and after Ron Rivera got a year to stay on in the transition, the Commanders will start fresh under Josh Harris.
>>READ: Commanders Hire Peters to Head Football Operations
Washington has been one of the most attractive jobs because of the outlook that serves as an immediate jumping-off point. The Commanders have the second-overall pick in the draft, likely to be used on a quarterback — either USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye, depending on what Chicago does with the first-overall pick. The main prerequisite of this job will be the quarterback's drafting, development and performance.
Last year, Washington was 24th in EPA per play on offense. Sam Howell got most of the run at quarterback, and the team did its best to build an offense around testing if the former fifth-round pick could be the quarterback of the future. The next coach will be tasked with getting more offensive efficiency and building around some of the offensive talent already in place, such as Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.
The Commanders have five picks in the top 100 of the coming draft — including a high-second-round pick from the Bears in the Montez Sweat trade and a third-round pick from the San Francisco 49ers for Chase Young. Washington also has a sixth at pick 102.
>>READ: Latest Mock Draft
Washington also has a projected league-leading $73 million in cap space for the 2024 season. There are a few key defenders set to be free agents and no true starting edge rushers, but this could be a roster shaped in whichever way the new head coach sees fit. Even most of the bigger contracts on the books could be removed or reworked if needed. There are few long-term commitments here.
The fit: Ben Johnson, OC, Detroit Lions
This has been the fit even before the Washington job was officially open, and there’s a reason for it — it makes a ton of sense. Johnson could have been a head coach last offseason, but he chose to stay as the Detroit Lions’ offensive coordinator for one more season. In that year, the Lions remained one of the top offenses in the league, and Johnson’s draw as a potential head coach drew bigger.
That’s where Johnson’s appeal comes from. The need for an offensive-minded head coach can be overrated when that’s just thrown out as a blanket requirement, but going that way fits where Washington is now.
Jared Goff has ranked sixth in EPA per play over Johnson’s two seasons as the Lions’ offensive coordinator, according to TruMedia. Between Goff’s final season in Los Angeles and his first in Detroit, Goff ranked 27th. So much of that has been done by playing to Goff’s strengths as a passer.
This year, the Lions ranked first in EPA per play on throws to the middle of the field. That’s where Goff has thrived in his career, and the way Johnson has constructed an offense that spaces out openings in that area has stood out.
No quarterback has thrown crossers at a higher rate than Goff in 2023, giving the quarterback open spots to throw and receivers to run after the catch. How Detroit has gotten to those crossers from different positions and alignments has been one of Johnson's more impressive aspects of play design.
>>WATCH: Lions-49ers Preview
In a way, Johnson has also been slightly handcuffed in how to design this offense because the quarterback run threat is not there in Detroit in the way it is with more modern offenses around the league. In 2023, Goff had the fifth-highest rate of dropbacks that finished in the pocket, and only Aidan O’Connell (0.0 percent) and Kirk Cousins (0.9) had a lower scramble rate than Goff (1.1).
The Lions also have a well-designed run game that complements the passing game. Everything about the offense works together, which is the type of detail that should carry over into other aspects of a head coaching role.
Seattle Seahawks
The job at hand: Seattle parted ways with long-time coach Pete Carroll after a 9-8 season when the Seahawks ranked 16th in DVOA and 28th in defensive DVOA. The move from Carroll can be seen as an attempt to move toward a more modern philosophy.
This wasn’t for a lack of trying, especially on defense. Over the past few seasons, Carroll brought in new voices and attempted to shift from the Cover-3-heavy style of defense that powered the Legion Of Boom era.
However, none of that really worked.
Despite shifts in scheme and personnel, Seattle struggled to field a successful defense. Over the past three seasons, the Seahawks rank 29th in defensive EPA per play. Seattle had the seventh-oldest defense in the league in 2023 by snap-weighted age. There is talent on that side of the ball, including Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen, but there will be another reshaping of how the defensive talent is deployed.
There will also need to be a reshaping of the offense. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who is now the coordinator in Chicago, was a key piece in getting the most out of Geno Smith over the past two seasons. Smith, who will turn 34 in October, has two years remaining on his contract, but no more guaranteed money exists.
Outside of Smith and Tyler Lockett, the offense is relatively young, including two second-year tackles who were mostly impressive during their first seasons as starters but whose play fell off a bit in 2023.
Seattle is a projected $4 million over the 2024 salary cap and has a few key free agents.
The Seahawks also have the misfortune of playing in a division that includes the 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, two 2023 playoff teams that feature some of the best offenses in the league.
The fit: Mike Macdonald, DC, Baltimore Ravens
The Seahawks have interviewed many candidates, and most of the coaches who have gotten a second interview to date have come from the defensive side of the ball. One person who has not been interviewed yet is Macdonald.
Timing is the reason. Seattle did not part ways with Carroll until late in the week following the end of the regular season, and interviews for the Seahawks did not start until after the wild-card round.
For coaches on teams with a first-round bye, interviews were only allowed until the wild-card round was completed. If the Ravens lose Sunday, Seattle could interview Macdonald for the first time as early as Jan. 29. But if Baltimore advances to the Super Bowl, the Seahawks would have to wait until the day after that game, Feb. 12.
>>WATCH: Ravens-Chiefs Preview
That puts some pressure on the Seahawks to be sure of a candidate they have not yet talked to, but Macdonald should check a lot of the boxes the team is looking for in a head coach.
Macdonald came to Baltimore in 2022 after the Ravens parted ways with Wink Martindale. Macdonald joined John Harbaugh’s staff after serving as the defensive coordinator for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan in 2021. Before the Michigan job, Macdonald was Baltimore’s linebackers coach for three seasons, after a year as the defensive backs coach. He worked his way up from a defensive assistant in the two prior years.
Under Macdonald, the Ravens’ defense was third in EPA per play and first in defensive DVOA during the 2023 regular season. The Baltimore defense has been a versatile unit that has gotten the most out of a number of veterans on the roster.
Between the players who have been on multiple teams throughout their careers — such as Jadeveon Clowney, Kyle Van Noy and Ronald Darby — or homegrown players — such as Patrick Queen and Justin Madubuike — it’s hard to say these players aren’t playing some of the best football of their careers. Then there’s the development of a star in Kyle Hamilton.
The Ravens run a versatile scheme that has thrived on exotic pre-snap looks and changing the post-snap picture. Macdonald’s zone defense plays more two-high that runs out for Quarters and Cover-6, which are the types of coverages the Seahawks have tried to shift to with little success.
Baltimore also had success against the 49ers' and Rams' offenses this season, with the second-best EPA per play allowed against those two opponents in 2023. A head coaching hire should not be made because of success the previous year against division rivals, but those wins go deeper than just success against specific teams. They highlight Macdonald’s ability to adapt and slow down the league's most effective and ever-growing offensive scheme.
