Analysis
6/29/23
3 min read
A.J. Brown Should Surpass PrizePicks Season-Long Receiving Line
In his first season with the Philadelphia Eagles, A.J. Brown showcased his exceptional talent, delivering his best performance as a professional football player. Brown's remarkable season included 1,496 yards receiving on 88 receptions, resulting in 11 touchdowns.
What makes his achievement even more impressive is Brown played more than 60 percent of snaps in every game, demonstrating his durability and ability to contribute consistently. These factors make him a prime target to have repeat success in 2023.
A.J. Brown MORE Than 1099.5 Yards Receiving on PrizePicks
As a key component in an offense that emphasizes the passing game, Brown’s success is poised to continue, solidifying his status as a standout receiver in the league.
The Eagles utilized Brown’s skillset to put him in a position to win consistently.
Since 2018, among players who have run at least 100 routes in a season and had 20 percent of their route tree on one route, Brown’s vertical route stands out as the only one to average over 4.0 yards per route run. The Eagles’ rushing threat forces teams into single-high coverage, creating favorable spots for quarterback Jalen Hurts to target Brown downfield.
In the 2022 season, Brown showcased his dominance against single-high and two-high coverages. He commanded over 30 percent of the targets versus single-high coverage and over 20 percent against two-high coverage.
Notably, he averaged over two yards per route run against both coverages, a feat achieved by only nine other players since 2018. This elite level of production highlights Brown’s importance in the passing game, his ability to create separation and his remarkable route-running skills.
Regardless of the defensive scheme, Brown consistently finds ways to impact the game, making him a challenging matchup and solidifying his status as one of the league’s most effective receivers.
PrizePicks has projected a significant regression of around 400 yards for Brown, but I strongly disagree with this assessment. I firmly believe that Brown will continue to be a crucial factor in Hurts’ success, much like Stefon Diggs was for Josh Allen. The chemistry between Brown and Hurts should only improve in their second year together, enabling them to make a significant impact on the field.
The Eagles possess a formidable run game that can force opposing defenses into single-high coverage. This strategic advantage allows Brown to exploit defenses down the field.
Additionally, the Eagles' offensive line has demonstrated its capability to provide ample protection, allowing Hurts the necessary time to connect with Brown on deep passes.
Barring any significant injuries, if Brown plays in 14-15 games this season, he should have no trouble surpassing the projected yardage total.
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