Analysis
10/18/23
8 min read
7 Bold Predictions for 2023 NFL Trade Deadline
The NFL trade deadline was a relatively quiet time in years past. Most teams weren’t confident a newly acquired player could learn a new offense or defense quickly enough to warrant giving up draft picks for them. That held especially true when that player could be a free agent the following March.
Von Miller was a major factor in the Los Angeles Rams’ Super Bowl run in 2021 after he was acquired at the trade deadline from the Denver Broncos. Things changed dramatically at the 2022 trade deadline when several impact players moved from non-contenders to playoff-hopeful teams.
Christian McCaffrey, T.J. Hockenson, Roquan Smith and Bradley Chubb made a big impact in helping their new teams to playoff berths while earning Pro Bowl honors. That further emboldened general managers to jump into the trade deadline sweepstakes that ends on Halloween.
Here are seven players who are solid candidates to be traded in the next two weeks and their projected destinations:
7 Trade Deadline Predictions
Brian Burns, Edge/OLB, Carolina Panthers
Destination: Los Angeles Rams
Brian Burns was the Carolina Panthers’ first-round pick in 2019 and is a two-time Pro Bowler playing on his fifth-year option. He is playing well again this season for the winless Panthers, with four sacks, nine QB hits, seven tackles for loss (TFL) and 20 tackles. Burns is coming off his best season with 12.5 sacks, 22 QB hits, 17 TFL and 63 tackles.
The Rams have never been afraid to make a bold in-season trade (Miller is a prime example). They are somewhat surprisingly in the NFC playoff hunt at 3-3 after an awful 2022 season. The Rams have only 10 sacks through the first six games, so Burns would be a great addition to fortify the defense and help Aaron Donald in the pass rush.
The Rams reportedly offered several high picks for Burns last year and would likely step up again for a 25-year-old premier edge rusher.
Chase Young, DE, Washington Commanders
Destination: Houston Texans
The Washington Commanders invested big money in Pro Bowl defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. The team’s two starting defensive ends — Chase Young and Montez Sweat — are headed to free agency. Young’s fifth-year option was declined, and Sweat is playing under his fifth-year option.
The Commanders will not have the cap room to keep both players, and Sweat has been more productive (4.5 sacks, nine QB hits, 20 tackles vs. three sacks, seven QB hits, 12 tackles for Young). Sweat also has been more durable than Young, who missed 22 games in 2021 and 2022 due to an ACL tear.
Young has proven to be back as a productive player with trade value. The Commanders should get a draft pick now for a player who was the second overall pick in 2020 (and the Defensive Rookie of the Year) rather than receiving nothing if Young leaves in free agency.
The Houston Texans are a surprising 3-3 and one game back of Jacksonville in the AFC South. The offense is much improved with first-round QB C.J. Stroud. Young would add juice to the Houston pass rush that has only nine sacks, ranking 30th.
The Commanders would seek a first-round pick for Young, but they should settle for a second-rounder because of Young's injury history.
Carl Lawson, Edge/DE, New York Jets
Destination: Atlanta Falcons
Carl Lawson was a fourth-round pick of the Cincinnati Bengals in 2017 who moved on to the New York Jets in 2021. He had seven sacks, 24 QB hits and 33 tackles last season. However, he is a backup this season and has only three tackles with no sacks in four games.
Lawson’s $15 million per year deal is up after this season, and after a contract restructure, his low base salary should be attractive to the Atlanta Falcons, who have only 10 sacks through six games to rank 29th.
At 3-3, Atlanta is only a half-game behind Tampa Bay in the NFC South and in the wild-card chase. The Falcons' defense is much improved overall, but its sack total is still lacking after finishing 31st last season. Lawson is a proven player who can be acquired for a later-round pick because he’s merely depth for the Jets.
Devin Bush, LB, Seattle Seahawks
Destination: Philadelphia Eagles
Devin Bush is a former first-round pick (10th overall) in 2019 of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He was an All-Rookie linebacker and four-year starter (other than missing 11 games due to a torn ACL in 2020). This offseason, he signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Seattle Seahawks.
It hasn’t worked out for Bush in Seattle, where he backs up Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks. Bush has only three tackles in three games after making 81 tackles for the Steelers last season. He can help a team looking for a solid tackler and a linebacker who can cover.
The Philadelphia Eagles' pass defense has fallen from No. 1 to No. 20 this season, and their total yards allowed has dropped from No. 2 to No. 9.
General manager Howie Roseman is never afraid to take a chance on a formerly productive, highly drafted player such as Bush to come in and help a Super Bowl contender.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
Destination: Los Angeles Chargers
DJ Moore has supplanted Darnell Mooney as the Chicago Bears’ No. 1 receiver. Mooney was a fifth-round pick in 2020 who had 81 catches for 1,055 yards and four TDs in 2021 before an ankle injury curtailed his production last season. He’s become an afterthought in the Bears' offense with only 10 receptions (on 19 targets) for 152 yards and one TD. He had no catches in the Bears’ 40-20 win in Washington two weeks ago. Mooney is headed to free agency next March.
Chicago is going nowhere this season with a 1-5 record, and QB Justin Fields is likely to miss several weeks due to a thumb injury. At the likely cost of a mid-to-late-round pick with his contract expiring, the 26-year-old (on Oct. 29) would give the Los Angeles Chargers a speedy downfield threat.
It was apparent in Monday night's loss to the Cowboys that QB Justin Herbert could use another quality receiver alongside 31-year-old Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer after the ACL injury to Mike Williams. That would give first-round pick Quentin Johnston (only six catches for 44 yards in five games) time to develop as the 2-3 Chargers try to stay in the AFC playoff race.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
Destination: Cleveland Browns
The 1-5 Denver Broncos are headed to another dreadful season, and coach Sean Payton is not reluctant to part with highly paid and underproductive players. Jerry Jeudy — owed $13 million on his fifth-year option in 2024 — was the 15th overall pick in the 2020 draft. Remember Justin Jefferson selected seven picks after him.
After a good 2022 season with 67 catches for 972 yards and six TDs, Jeudy has fallen off to 20 catches for 222 yards and no TDs.
Payton talks of trying to get the frustrated Jeudy more involved in the offense. But if an attractive offer comes in the form of an early-round pick, a trade is likely to occur. The Broncos will have to find a team willing to take on the guaranteed fifth-year option while absorbing an affordable half-season of a $2.7 million salary.
The Cleveland Browns rank 30th in passing and have Amari Cooper as their top receiver, but he turns 30 next year. Elijah Moore (21 catches, 167 yards, no TDs) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (six catches, 75 yards, no TDs) are not having great seasons as the other starters in Cleveland’s three-wide receiver scheme. The team has only four receiving TDs.
Jeudy would provide an immediate boost to the Browns' passing game.
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Destination: Kansas City Chiefs
Marquise Brown was the Baltimore Ravens’ first-round pick in 2019. After a 91-catch season (for 1,008 yards and 6 TDs) in 2021, he was traded to the Arizona Cardinals. Brown had 67 catches for 709 yards and three TDs in 12 games last season (missing five games because of a fractured foot). He’s having a good season with 29 receptions for 334 and three TDs, as he plays on his $13.4 million fifth-year option.
.@Primetime_jet gets under the ball to extend the lead for the @AZCardinals!
📺: #DALvsAZ on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UQdQ05hqXN pic.twitter.com/4cQVV3VXVZ— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2023
The 1-5 Cardinals are another team in rebuilding mode. They should be happy to pick up a mid-round pick for Brown from a team looking for a quality receiver to aid their playoff push. The Kansas City Chiefs fit that description because their wide receiver corps has been less than stellar this season for Patrick Mahomes.
Rashee Rice is having a decent rookie season (21 catches, 245 yards, two TDs), but the rest of the group is disappointing. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and Richie James have combined for 36 catches, 359 yards and two TDs in six games. Justin Watson has added 10 catches for 219 yards with no TDs.
Brown would provide a speedy, proven threat to take some pressure off Travis Kelce and help the Chiefs’ passing attack that lost WR JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter at @jeffdiamondnfl.
