NFL Analysis
11/17/23
11 min read
6 Under-the-Radar NFL Second-Half Breakout Candidates
We are more than halfway through the 2023 season, and a lot still has to be decided. Week 11 has several huge divisional games that will help give us a clearer picture of what the playoffs could look like.
Every season, there are some players who break out in the second half of the year and end up having a significant impact in the postseason. Look no further than Brock Purdy, who didn't make his first career start until Week 13 last year.
So who are some breakout candidates at the midway point of the year? Here are six players to keep an eye on during the final eight weeks of the season.
Second-Half Breakout Candidates
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, Cleveland Browns
Speaking of Purdy, could Dorian Thompson-Robinson be the next rookie quarterback to lead his team to the playoffs? The Cleveland Browns sit at 6-3 after nine games but will be without Deshaun Watson for the remainder of the season.
Instead of going with veteran P.J. Walker, the Browns are handing the keys to Thompson-Robinson, who was a fifth-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Thompson-Robinson is pretty experienced for being a rookie, appearing in 48 games during his college career. He racked up more than 10,000 passing yards at UCLA and scored a whopping 116 touchdowns. He is a 24-year-old rookie who played well for the Browns during the preseason.
This is a seasoned passer with an outstanding college résumé, who won the backup job outright. Still, it's rare to see a Day 3 rookie quarterback come in and have even a moderate amount of success immediately.
The good news for Thompson-Robinson is the Browns are in a good spot in the AFC. With six wins already, they just need to find four more wins (probably) to make the playoffs. Their schedule gets easier coming up with games against the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams, Chicago Bears and New York Jets. Cleveland's defense is incredible, and they should win games alone.
The bad news is that Thompson-Robinson must overcome a lot on offense. Both starting tackles are on the injured reserve list, and backup Dawand Jones missed last week with an injury. Nick Chubb was injured in Week 2 and will not return this season after suffering a devastating knee injury.
Unlike Purdy in San Francisco, the offense isn't loaded with talent. Thompson-Robinson needs to overcome injuries on the offensive line to be successful, which is highly challenging for a Day 3 rookie.
Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh in Week 11, which is a brutal matchup for Thompson-Robinson in his second career start. It will be a mild surprise if he manages to play well but look for the Browns to exercise some patience.
They know he gives them the best chance of making the postseason, and they are banking on him improving by leaps and bounds in the next two months. Will that happen? Who knows, but their season relies on him being a competent quarterback over the next eight games.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys have not generated much of a running game this season. The Cowboys franchise tagged Tony Pollard this offseason, coming off a Pro Bowl season. Pollard averaged a whopping 5.1 yards per carry in the first four years of his career but is averaging only 3.9 yards per rush this season.
In fairness to Pollard, he did suffer a brutal leg injury during the 2022 playoffs that required surgery. He missed most of the 2023 offseason, and it’s clear he is still recovering from that injury. The Cowboys have been careful to limit his carries this season (15.0 rushing attempts per game), but there might be another reason they don't want to give him more work.
The Cowboys have found something with Rico Dowdle, an undrafted free agent from the 2020 class. Before the 2023 season, Dowdle had just seven carries in three seasons. Now, he is the clear-cut No. 2 running back in Dallas.
Against the New York Giants in Week 11, Dowdle had a career-high 12 carries for 66 yards, and his first NFL touchdown. He looked explosive, but more importantly, he created chunk plays after contact. Here are some of his best runs from that game, courtesy of Bob Sturm:
According to TruMedia, Dowdle averages 3.19 yards after contact per rush this season, the 13th-most among all players with at least 45 carries. That is quite a bit more than Pollard, who sits at 2.70 yards after contact per carry.
Pollard isn’t in danger of losing his job, but Dowdle should have an expanded role in the offense moving forward. And with the Cowboys looking to challenge the Philadelphia Eagles for the division crown, they’ve got to figure out their rushing attack in the next month. Look for Dallas to lean more on Dowdle in the upcoming weeks to jumpstart its run game.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have the No. 13 scoring offense in the NFL this season. Against the Miami Dolphins, they managed to score just 14 points on offense. Against the Broncos, nine. We aren't accustomed to seeing the Chiefs struggle to score points in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Mahomes is averaging just 271 passing yards per game, 32 yards fewer than his career average coming into the 2023 season. There are some legitimate concerns about this offense and the playmakers the Chiefs have surrounded him with.
The Chiefs desperately need someone to break out in their passing attack and make the unit more dynamic. The player most likely to do that for Kansas City is second-round pick Rashee Rice.
During the last few weeks, we’ve seen his role increase. Against the Dolphins, Rice played a career-high 41 snaps (68 percent of the offensive snaps). While he only caught two passes for 17 yards, he did get into the end zone for the fourth time this season.
Rice has been easily the most dynamic weapon on the team this season. According to TruMedia, Rice averages 8.71 yards after the catch per reception. That is the highest in the NFL among all wide receivers, with at least 30 catches.
What is also impressive about Rice is he’s caught 87.5 percent of his targets, the highest in the NFL by a wide margin (among qualifying receivers). Whenever the Chiefs have given him opportunities, he’s cashed in.
Coming out of the bye week, the Chiefs must get him more involved. Only a few targets in each game won't suffice.
Kansas City has to know he is the key to unlocking the offense and getting back to the level we saw in 2022.
Terrel Bernard, LB, Buffalo Bills
After winning the AFC East in each of the last three seasons, the Buffalo Bills are in a tough spot heading into Week 11. They are sitting at 5-5 and are in danger of missing the postseason. Their schedule is incredibly difficult with games against the Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs and Dolphins still left on the slate.
The offense is sputtering, so the team decided to fire offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, but their defense needs to step up. They lost two key players due to injuries (Tre'Davious White and Matt Milano), and neither will be back in 2023. Now, they are calling on young players to step up and replace them in the starting lineup.
Terrel Bernard, who leads the linebackers in snaps this season, will continue to see an expanded role. With Milano gone, he's added more responsibilities on defense and has stepped up to the plate.
Bernard was a third-round pick by the Bills in the 2022 NFL Draft and is already proving to be worth that selection. He leads the team in tackles (93) and is third in tackles for a loss (six), but the Bills need him to be more of a weapon in coverage.
Without Milano, the Bills have been getting exposed in the middle of the field. Their linebackers just haven’t had much success in zone coverage, where Milano thrived. But Bernard has improved in this area by the week and is already one of their best defenders.
If the Bills want to make a run and return to the playoffs, they need Bernard to continue ascending. He is one of the few defenders on that defense who is playing. His development will be critical to a late-season run.
Baron Browning, Edge, Denver Broncos
Believe it or not, the Broncos are still in the playoff hunt. They are 4-5, but they have an incredibly soft schedule in the next two months and a tiebreaker over the Bills. They've won three games in a row, and their defense is a big reason. Denver has allowed just 67 points in their past four games (16.75 PPG).
The improved pass rush is one of the biggest reasons for their success. The Broncos moved on from Randy Gregory and Frank Clark, two aging veterans struggling on the field. That opened up more snaps for their young pass rushers, including Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper.
But the one player to watch is Baron Browning, who missed the season's first six games due to an injury. In his first two games back, he recorded two sacks and 10 pressures, according to TruMedia.
He is a highly athletic player, who is still learning how to rush the passer.
At Ohio State, he was primarily an off-the-ball linebacker who would be used to blitz. Now, he's a highly effective stand-up pass rusher.
Browning is In his third year, but he is still raw. To date, he only has 386 career pass-rush snaps, most of which came during the back half of the 2022 season. Each week, his confidence grows as a rusher, and it’s clear he has a knack for getting to the quarterback.
If the Broncos want to push for the playoffs, they'll need their defense to continue playing lights out. Browning is a vital piece of that defense and will only improve with more opportunities.
Luke Goedeke, RT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After defeating the Tennessee Titans in Week 10, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just a half-game behind the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South. They won the earlier matchup, beating the Saints in New Orleans.
At 4-5, the Buccaneers have a fantastic shot of winning the division again and hosting a home playoff game.
One of the reasons the Buccaneers have managed to stay alive this year is due to their offensive line's play. Tampa Bay decided this offseason to move Pro Bowl RT Tristan Wirfs to left tackle after releasing starter Donovan Smith. While Wirfs hasn't been quite as dominant on the left side, he has effectively protected the blindside of Baker Mayfield.
That move is a net positive for the Buccaneers due to the play of RT Luke Goedeke. A second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Goedeke played most of his rookie season at right guard. He was a disaster at guard and was effectively benched later in the season. The Buccaneers moved him out to right tackle this season, saving his career.
Goedeke has played all nine games this season at right tackle and has surrendered just 20 pressures. He’s allowed just three quarterback hits in nine games, which is highly impressive, considering the Buccaneers have given him less help each week.
In fairness, he has allowed a sack in the last two games, but his play has been pretty good for most of the season.
Goedeke has really helped their run game, and that’s where the Buccaneers have needed him the most. The run game has struggled overall, but they’ve had their most success running behind Goedeke. He is so athletic and has no problem reaching defenders in the open field. That will need to continue in order for the Buccaneers to stay balanced on offense.
Tampa Bay has the best offensive line in the division, and the hope is Goedeke can continue to improve with more reps at tackle. If that happens, the Buccaneers could win their third straight NFC South championship.
