NFL Analysis
12/22/23
5 min read
NFL Wild Card Teams Looking Like Potential Playoff Spoilers
In most cases, it's one seed or bust for teams in the NFL playoff picture.
In 2022, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles were their conference's No. 1 seed. Both teams would go on to play in the Super Bowl. In 2023, I’m not so sure that will be the case.
With three weeks remaining in the regular season, no teams in the NFL (other than the San Francisco 49ers) look more dangerous than the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams. Both look like wild card locks with three games to close out the season.
Let's look at three teams who could spoil at top contender's Super Bowl run.
3 Potential Playoff Spoilers
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have been an interesting team all year. While their 8-6 record is not all that impressive, most of the metrics and advanced stats claim they should be a top-three to top-five team. The Bills are currently out of the playoffs as the nine seed.
According to The New York Times Playoff Odds Predictor, the Bills have a 71 percent chance to make the playoffs but only a 40 percent chance to win their division. Even as a wild card team, few teams are playing better football than the Bills.
In the last six weeks, the Bills rank seventh in offensive EPA/play, fifth in offensive success rate, fourth in rush EPA and ninth in dropback EPA. While their offense has been fine for a good chunk of the season, their defense was the side of the ball giving some hesitation when putting faith into their playoff success. However, even that unit is playing well now.
Since Week 11, the Bills defense ranks eighth in EPA/play. While they have some issues stopping the run, their pass defense has been much better in the last month or so. Nonetheless, the Bills are one of the scarier teams in the NFL right now and could give the No. 2 or No. 3 seed some big-time trouble on wild-card weekend if they close out their season on a high note.
Los Angeles Rams
Like the Bills, another underrated team that could be scary in the playoffs is the Los Angeles Rams, which was supposed to be in a deep, dark, regression-filled season due to “salary cap issues.”
According to The New York Times Playoff Odds Predictor, the Rams only have a 48 percent chance to make the playoffs in 2023; some of that is due to having the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers left on their schedule.
Even with the less than 50 percent chance to make the playoffs, I believe the Rams will get in, and I believe they will be a tough out for a team in the wild-card round.
Since losing to the Green Bay Packers in Week 9 with Brett Rypien at quarterback, the Rams have played some of the better football in the NFC. With the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles scrambling a little bit, the Rams could be one of the more dangerous teams in the NFC playoff picture.
Since Week 10, the Rams rank fifth in offensive EPA/play, sixth in offensive success rate, fifth in dropback EPA and ninth in rush EPA. With Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams playing at a high level, the Rams are not a team anyone wants to play defense against.
But again, it’s the defense that can’t be relied on, right? In the same time frame, the Rams rank 17th in defensive EPA/play and ninth in defensive success rate. While those metrics are not eye-popping, a 31-30 loss to the Baltimore Ravens stains those numbers a bit.
The Rams' postseason success will go as far as Sean McVay and the offense allow. Right now, there are not many offenses in football playing more efficiently and scoring more points than the Rams.
Cleveland Browns
While the other two teams above are impressing offensively and defensively to close out the season, the Cleveland Browns playoff spoiler angle is due to their defense still being a buzzsaw.
The Browns have a 92 percent chance to make the playoffs, and that’s in big thanks to how nasty this Browns defense is. The Browns' defense ranks first in EPA/play, first in success rate, first in dropback EPA and ninth in rush EPA. That is not a team I would want to face early in the playoffs.
I wanted to include the Browns in this conversation because they could hurt some feelings in the playoffs and because this defense deserves a ton of credit. The Browns offense has been putrid, but you’ve rarely seen the defense miss a beat.
That’s something you rarely see nowadays with everyone trying to play “complementary football.”
While it’s tough to see the Browns making so much noise in the playoffs with Joe Flacco leading the offense, that defense is capable of winning a game or two, which could make for some interesting matchups.
