Analysis
9/5/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Record Predictions: Win-Loss Projections For Every Team
Professional football is finally back. With opening night just days away, it’s time to solidify our stances for the 2023 NFL season. We began that process on Labor Day with our Week 1 power rankings, and we’ll follow that up today with our record predictions for all 32 teams, along with a few observations and player predictions.
While power rankings consider a lot of factors, they ultimately analyze who teams are at the moment. Record predictions are about a team's season-long outlook.
Let’s dive right in.
2023 NFL Record Predictions:
AFC East
New York Jets: 12-5
Buffalo Bills: 11-6
Miami Dolphins: 10-7
New England Patriots: 7-10
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6
Baltimore Ravens: 11-6
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-7
Cleveland Browns: 9-8
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars: 12-5
Tennessee Titans: 7-10
Houston Texans: 5-12
Indianapolis Colts: 4-13
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5
Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6
Denver Broncos: 8-9
Las Vegas Raiders: 4-13
AFC Playoff Seeding:
1. Jaguars 2. Chiefs 3. Jets 4. Bengals 5. Bills 6. Ravens 7. Chargers
AFC Observations:
- You could argue nine of the 10 best quarterbacks play in the AFC.
- The Jaguars are an ascending team, but their six games against AFC South opponents inflates their record.
- The Chiefs, Bengals and Bills have become perennial contenders in the past few years.
- Regardless of who makes the playoffs in the AFC, at least four dangerous teams won’t get in.
- In these predictions, the Dolphins, Steelers and Browns have winning seasons but miss the playoffs.
- This might be the best offensive supporting cast Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert have for the rest of their careers.
- The Jets have a wide range of outcomes. If Aaron Rodgers returns to his MVP form, New York can beat anyone. If Rodgers misses time or significantly declines, the Jets could be in a similar position to last season.
- The AFC North will be the best division in football entering 2024.
AFC Player Predictions:
- Herbert leads the league in passing yards.
- Burrow leads the league in touchdown passes.
- Nick Chubb leads the league in rushing yards.
- Ja’Marr Chase leads the league in receiving touchdowns.
AFC Super Bowl Representative:
Cincinnati Bengals
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: 12-5
Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6
New York Giants: 8-9
Washington Commanders: 6-11
NFC North
Detroit Lions: 10-7
Minnesota Vikings: 8-9
Chicago Bears: 8-9
Green Bay Packers: 7-10
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: 11-6
Atlanta Falcons: 9-8
Carolina Panthers: 6-11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-14
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
Seattle Seahawks: 11-6
Los Angeles Rams: 4-13
Arizona Cardinals: 2-15
NFC Playoff Seeding:
1. 49ers 2. Cowboys 3. Saints 4. Lions 5. Seahawks 6. Eagles 7. Falcons
NFC Observations:
- Expect the Eagles to get off to a strong start.
- Philadelphia, San Francisco and Dallas are the only consistent contenders in the conference.
- The Saints have the league’s easiest schedule, which could lead to an inflated record.
- The Falcons have the league’s second-easiest schedule, which could lead to an inflated record.
- A team with a losing record could end up as the seventh seed.
- The Rams' abysmal predicted record is driven by their difficult schedule.
NFC Player Predictions:
- Dak Prescott has a bounce-back year.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the league in receptions.
- Micah Parsons leads the league in sacks and wins Defensive Player of the Year.
NFC Super Bowl Representative:
Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl Prediction:
Bengals over Cowboys
Ryan Reynolds is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
