NFL Analysis
3/6/24
6 min read
Will Dallas Cowboys Make Dak Prescott NFL’s Highest-Paid Player?
In Dak Prescott’s most recent game, he threw two costly first-half interceptions as the No. 2 seed Dallas Cowboys fell behind the Green Bay Packers 27-0 on the way to an embarrassing first-round home playoff defeat. It was an ugly ending after a 12-5 regular season for the NFC East champions.
The loss added to Prescott's postseason woes. He's now 2-5 in the playoffs and hasn't led his team to an NFC title game. It’s a negative for a player with a 73-41 regular season record. Prescott entered last year’s playoffs coming off his best season by passer rating (105.9, second in the NFL), and he led the league with 36 touchdown passes.
Despite another poor postseason performance, Prescott holds tremendous leverage over the Cowboys contract-wise because he carries a whopping $59.455 salary cap number in 2024. This is the final year of his four-year, $160 million contract.
The Cowboys need to free up an estimated $10.6 million (per Over The Cap) to be at the required cap amount by March 13, the official start of next season. The pressure is on team owner/general manager Jerry Jones to extend Prescott and reduce his cap hit.
Jones and the Cowboys face the unenviable necessity of extending Prescott after another playoff dud. Without significant cap relief from Prescott’s contract, it would be exceedingly difficult for the team to extend other key players, like Pro Bowlers CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons.
Prescott said he is “definitely confident” an extension will get done soon. Meanwhile, Jones is posturing by saying, “We don’t need to but we can if everybody wants to solve it.”
Backed Into a Corner
As much as Jones and the majority of Cowboys’ fans would like to force Prescott to prove he can win a Super Bowl or at least get to an NFC title game before granting him another huge payday, the team is backed into a corner.
The restructures of his contract led to the enormous 2024 cap figure. Prescott also has a no-tag clause in his current contract, so Dallas can't hit him with the franchise tag in 2025 if he plays out his deal and hits free agency next offseason.
It's a tough situation for the Cowboys with Prescott in the driver's seat. But it’s also in Prescott’s best interest to get a deal done now. It would help Dallas’ cap situation and enable the team to build a solid supporting cast. A new deal helps Prescott avoid the risk of a poor 2024 season, another playoff dud, or, worst of all, a career-altering injury in the last year of his contract.
Along with the futures of veterans like Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield and Justin Fields, Prescott’s status is among the most talked-about topics of quarterback intrigue heading into the new league year, when all teams must be under the salary cap. However, fitting Prescott's contract in will be less difficult after last week’s news of the $30.6 million cap increase.
With these circumstances facing the team and their starting quarterback, here’s my blueprint for the Cowboys to extend Prescott’s deal by the official start of free agency next Wednesday, or at least before March 18, when a $5 million roster bonus would kick in.
The Current QB Market
Prescott and his agent are seeking a top-of-market deal (or close to it). In terms of average salary per year over the next four years, Patrick Mahomes is the leader at $52.65 million per year, and Lamar Jackson is slightly behind Mahomes at $52 million per year.
Joe Burrow’s five-year, $275 million extension was the largest in new money, averaging $55 million per year. But Burrow’s deal — signed last September — averages $44.3 million over seven years, including the final two years of his rookie contract.
What Prescott's Contract Could Look Like
I expect Prescott to parlay his leverage into a four-year extension for $220 million, averaging $55 million per year in new money, equaling Burrow's. Prescott is finishing his $40 million per year deal signed in 2021, which brings his effective total compensation to $260 million over five years (2024-2028). That equals Jackson’s $52 million per year and is just under Mahomes’ mark.
Guarantees (including signing bonuses) are key to any NFL contract. Prescott’s last contract included a $66 million signing bonus as part of $126 million in total guarantees. To lower the cap hit year-to-year, I see a $40 million signing bonus (matching Burrow) that pro-rates cap-wise to $8 million per year over five years. The $185 million in total guarantees will match Jackson’s total.
He had an incentive in his current deal that would pay $1 million per Super Bowl win if Prescott played more than 50 percent of the offensive snaps in the game—and likely in the regular season, too.
The Cowboys will happily include that incentive and hope Prescott earns it. It’s also possible some escalators will be included to increase his future base salaries if the team reaches the Super Bowl.
Cap Numbers and Cap Savings
Prescott has $13.2 million in past signing bonus pro-ration and $12.255 million in old restructures on the 2024 cap. A new $8 million per year in signing bonus pro-ration, plus a low base salary of the minimum for a player with his experience — $1.210 million — would create a new 2024 cap number of $34.665 million. That is a savings of $24.79 million against his cap hit this year.
After freeing up more cap space through possible releases and restructures, perhaps including wide receivers Michael Gallup or Brandin Cooks, the Cowboys could re-sign other free agents from their team and outside the organization.
This includes the following 2023 Dallas starters: RB Tony Pollard, C Tyler Biadasz, CB Stephon Gilmore, DE Dorance Armstrong, DT Johnathan Hankins and S Jayron Kearse. Long-time Pro Bowl OT Tyron Smith is a pending free agent, and likely a goner after injuries plagued him the previous several years.
Like him or not — and the Cowboys like him in the regular season, just not so much in the postseason — the Cowboys will almost certainly be hitching their wagon to the 30-year-old Prescott long-term. They’re married to Prescott, and realistically, a divorce is too costly to fathom.
