NFL Analysis
2/2/24
3 min read
Why Brock Purdy Is the Real Deal
If you woke an expert football observer up from a five-year coma and showed them film of Brock Purdy, they’d sooner believe Purdy was once the first-overall pick than the 262nd.
Is that to say Purdy is in that first class of pure talent such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or, say, C.J. Stroud? No. But neither were many other first-overall picks.
The point? The fact that Purdy was once the last pick in the draft has shaped how almost everyone analyzes him.
Compound that fact with the reputation of his predecessor with the San Francisco 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo, whom many saw (perhaps not unfairly) as a decent quarterback who perfectly fit Kyle Shanahan’s esteemed system and Purdy is an easy fit to be the NFL’s most baselessly underrated star quarterback.
“Purdy is an easy fit to be the NFL's most baselessly underrated star quarterback.”
Yes, Purdy is an ideal fit for a Shanahan system predicated on timing and rhythm throws between the numbers and aided by intricate formations, motions and run designs. But why is being a perfect fit in arguably football’s best offense viewed as a detriment? Purdy’s ability to process defenses after the snap is as strong as any quarterback’s.
That’s why his anticipation is second to none. And his precision accuracy, while maybe not quite as consistent as Aaron Rodgers or Joe Burrow, is still first-class. Because of all this, his arm strength — which, by the way, is far closer to “adequate” than “subpar,” anyway — becomes an ancillary issue.
There’s also simply no evidence that Purdy is only an early-down passer. He has twice brought the 49ers from behind in these playoffs by successfully operating in obvious dropback passing situations. Many have been surprised by his success here, but the data says they shouldn’t be. This season, on third-and-seven-plus yards to go situations, Purdy ranked sixth in passer rating (91.9) and his 9.2 yards per attempt ranked second only to Dak Prescott (9.3).
“Maybe winning a Super Bowl will put the misguided Purdy perceptions to rest.”
And the out-of-structure play-making that Purdy and his legs killed the Detroit Lions with in the second half of last week's game? That’s been there all season, as well. On sandlot plays — which we’ll define as throws made off scramble movement that come 3.6-plus seconds after the snap — the 49ers were second in yards per play with 6.9. (The Dallas Cowboys were first at 7.0; the NFL average is 4.6.) Purdy’s mobility is a strength — and it can even be a weapon.
Maybe winning a Super Bowl will put the misguided Purdy perceptions to rest. Though only maybe. People forget, but after Tom Brady's third Super Bowl title, there were still debates about whether a young Brady was simply a game manager on a great team.
Purdy matches up well to a dominant Kansas City Chiefs defense. The convoluted blitzes with which Steve Spagnuolo terrorized the Baltimore Ravens (and the rest of the AFC)? Purdy averaged 8.0 yards per attempt against five-plus rushers this season. And San Francisco posted good numbers overall against slot blitzes that also included a stunt, which is Kansas City’s forte.
>>WATCH: Brock Purdy's 2nd-Half Confidence Flipped the Game for 49ers
Against the split safety looks Purdy will see from Kansas City, he averaged an NFL-best 8.0 yards per attempt. Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers were second-best in the league but a full yard behind the 49ers. And San Francisco's 103.5 rating against split-safety coverage was also a league-best.
We could keep throwing out numbers, but the bottom line is that almost all of them verify what the film shows: Purdy is a bona fide star quarterback. The only number his naysayers can cite is 262.
