NFL Analysis
1/8/24
9 min read
What’s Next For Atlanta Falcons After Arthur Smith Firing?
It was barely Black Monday on the East Coast when the Atlanta Falcons announced they had fired coach Arthur Smith. In a Week 18 game that would reportedly decide Smith’s future, the Falcons lost 48-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints in one of the worst performances in a game and locked in a third-straight 7-10 season in Atlanta.
Smith was hired for his offensive mind after spending two years as offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans. From 2019-20, the Titans were fourth in EPA per play, fourth in success rate and second in yards per play, per TruMedia. The hope was that Smith could bring that offense — built off play-action with a run-heavy philosophy — and translate it to the Atlanta roster.
But things never clicked in the way they were expected.
What Went Wrong in Atlanta
Over Smith's three seasons in Atlanta, the Falcons ranked 23rd in EPA per play. Individually, those seasons ranked 27th, 12th and 26th. The offense rarely meshed outside of the 2022 run game, which ranked third in EPA per play, and many of the offense’s problems were self-inflicted.
In Matt Ryan's last legs, he had little to throw to on the 2021 roster outside of a rookie Kyle Pitts. The franchise then spoiled the relationship with Ryan after a failed attempt to trade for Deshaun Watson. That led to the team trading Ryan and three-quarters of a season of Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Despite Mariota’s struggles — he had the second-highest rate of inaccurate passes among quarterbacks — he was kept in until the final four games of the season.
That’s when some of the defiance kicked in.
Four games of Desmond Ridder was apparently enough for Smith to commit to starting him for the 2023 season. The Falcons were the first team publicly reported to have no interest in pursuing Lamar Jackson, and they made no effort to take a quarterback while they were in the top 10 of the draft.
Ridder had some ups and downs through the first half of the season, and when questioned, Smith claimed any criticism of the quarterback was due to “toxic groupthink.” Three days later, Smith benched Ridder for Taylor Heinicke at halftime.
There was a similar stubbornness from Smith in his usage of the highly drafted offensive players. There were massive draft investments in Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson, yet they were rarely the focal points of the offense. Smith brushed that criticism off, claiming he wasn’t playing fantasy football, he was trying to win games.
That excuse held less weight when the offense was inefficient and the wins didn't come.
The Falcons' Next Steps
Atlanta in still in a decent spot for the future. That’s probably one of the reasons the move to a new coach was made now.
The Falcons are projected to have about $34 million in cap space this offseason without a ton of significant players set to be free agents; Calais Campbell, Cordarelle Patterson and Jeff Okudah are the biggest names.
Another $13.5 million in cap space could be opened with the releases of Jonnu Smith and Heinicke. There's an opportunity to add some pieces with a solid core of players already in place. The Falcons also have a top-10 pick (No. 8 overall) for the fourth straight season.
With a few fixes, this team might not be too far away from being competitive.
Atlanta’s top priority this season will be to find a quarterback. Ridder wasn’t the offense's biggest issue early in the season, but his turnover issues magnified his other shortcomings — as a quarterback and for the offense as a whole.
The Falcons could use the eighth-overall pick in an attempt to move up for a quarterback at the top of the draft, but that could be more difficult than it sounds. Quarterbacks could go with the first three picks to the teams currently in those draft slots. Atlanta could be fighting with other teams to trade up for QB3 or QB4 in the draft.
There are also a number of free agent quarterbacks who could come in as bridge options, including Ryan Tannehill, Jacoby Brissett or even Russell Wilson. The most attractive name might be a trade for Justin Fields.
Fields would cost just $3.3 million on the fourth year of his rookie deal, but a decision on his fifth-year option must be made this offseason for what is projected to be just under $22 million by Over The Cap.
The Falcons' quarterback decision will obviously be influenced by the type of offense the new coach wants to establish. Atlanta doesn’t have to limit itself to offensive head coaches, but that head coach has to have a clear plan for that side of the ball because that’s where the top talent is and where the investment on this roster has been made.
Running the offense through the good players on offense is a low bar to clear, but it’s going to be important for the Falcons.
As a rookie, London had a 29.3 percent target share, which was third among receivers despite his 117 targets ranking 25th. He was targeted on 28 percent of his routes. In 2023, those rates dropped to 21.7 percent and 22.7 percent. He was still the leading receiver, but he didn't have nearly the rates of his rookie season. London had more long receptions in 2023 but was also used more often on hitches and other static routes that limited the upside of many of his catches.
Something similar can be said about Pitts, who has bounced between playing less than 100 percent health and having inconsistent quarterback play while he’s on the field. Over the past two seasons, Pitts has the fourth-highest rate of targets charted as inaccurate among 125 players with at least 100 targets in that span.
But perhaps the most important thing for a head coach to have is a plan for Robinson. His sell as a top pick was that he could be used in many different ways, not just as a running back. That usage never materialized.
Robinson lined up in the slot 15.4 percent of the time this season, per TruMedia, but averaged just 0.93 yard per route run when he did. His slot usage was mostly reserved for screens despite offseason hype that he could be used as a typical slot receiver.
It also didn’t help that Atlanta’s run game got worse after Robinson's addition. After averaging 0.06 EPA per rush and a 45.1 percent success rate in 2022, the Falcons averaged -0.12 EPA per rush with a 34.2 percent success rate in 2023.
A Pony personnel package also failed to produce. On 79 plays with Robinson and Tyler Allgeier on the field, the Falcons averaged 3.3 yards per play and -0.46 EPA per play with a 32 percent success rate.
This isn’t Robinson's fault. He still flashed and had some of the highlight plays many were expecting, but the offense never fully committed to his role. But he still has those traits that could be compelling for a coach.
Atlanta's Potential Coaching Candidates
Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator for the Lions, is going to be a popular name for coaching vacancies this offseason. With Detroit, Johnson has overseen an efficient offense built around play-action and routes over the middle of the field that could work for Atlanta’s current skill players. Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions' 12th overall pick in the 2023 draft, was an explosive addition to the team's offense. He didn’t have as much as much slot work as Robinson, but Gibbs was put in a position to succeed.
>>READ: Top Coaching Candidates for 2024
Another name floating around in Atlanta could be Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith. Smith has spent the past two years under Mike McDaniel and was just graded as the top offensive coordinator in the latest NFLPA grades.
Smith has been a part of a unique and effective offensive scheme in Miami that, this season, has produced a run game as efficient as some of the top passing games in the league. The Dolphins have also found success with running backs in the slot and multiple backs on the field. A version of Miami’s run game with Atlanta’s offensive line and running backs could be an interesting combination.
By hiring an offensive coach, Atlanta could possible keep defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. The Falcons were 10th in EPA per play and fifth in success rate on defense this season. However, they were 24th in defensive DVOA — 11th in DVOA against the run and first by EPA per play. Defense against the pass is weighted more in DVOA, which is where Atlanta struggled.
Still, the defense showed more promise than in recent seasons — all while the defensive personnel is still getting worked out. There are at least building blocks in Grady Jarrett, A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates.
The Falcons' biggest coaching swing could be for Bill Belichick. While his future in New England is unclear, ESPN's Dianna Russini reported that the Falcons have interest if he’s available. Belichick is still one of the best defensive minds in football — the Patriots’ defense ranked fourth in EPA per play and ninth in DVOA this season. However, it's fair to wonder about Belichick’s offensive philosophy, especially if it involves him reuniting with Josh McDaniels.
Atlanta should present itself as one of the better coaching vacancies. The talent is there, and the team has a supportive owner in a winnable division. There are opportunities to make a move for a quarterback and bring in a few free agents who could jumpstart this roster and make this one of the league's few quick turnaround jobs.
All those factors should attract the top coaching candidates, which could raise the Falcons' hopes and expectations for the future.
