We’ve hit that post-draft, post-schedule release portion of the offseason where there are no slam dunks for content ideas. You either deep dive on a team’s minicamp or go big picture and get creative. 

There aren’t many windows of the NFL calendar where you can pick a lane that interests you, veer off in that direction and drive at a pace that feels good. On this open-ended trip, I’m drawn to the quarterback roads and pondering big questions from 10,000 feet.

Here’s one to keep you company for a while: How high should expectations be for Jordan Love in 2023?

Wrap your mind around that one for a minute. A Green Bay Packers franchise that has relied on two Super Bowl-winning, MVP-earning, first ballot hall of famers — Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre — for 30 years hits control-alt-delete for a first-round pick from three years ago who, experience-wise, is still a rookie. 

It’s basically a once-in-a-lifetime scenario, and there is little evidence of how it will turn out. 

The words “realistic” and “expectations” traditionally don’t co-exist when it comes to first-round quarterbacks. But Green Bay didn’t make the playoffs a year ago, traded away its best player and allowed two of its top three pass-catchers to walk out the door. That has to be part of the equation. 

Then, you get to Love’s NFL résumé, and the term “expectations” looks even more slippery.  It includes three seasons, one start (2021 at Kansas City) and three more quarters (two in 2021 in Week 18 at Detroit and one in 2022 in Week 12 at Philadelphia) of experience to his name. The only recent, relevant evidence is the two series he played in the fourth quarter at Philadelphia last November, with his team trailing by double digits. 

There wasn’t much to see, but it was encouraging. Love only threw nine passes, but on his first six attempts, he made the right decision and made a good throw. He looked decisive, his footwork was solid and his motion was whippy and free. My one conclusion from the limited time: Talent won’t be a problem.

Without an actual body of work, there’s a lot of dot-connecting, tea-leaf reading and gut feelings when landing on realistic expectations for Love’s first season as a starter.

What Are Realistic Expectations?

Let’s establish a range of possibilities. On the high end, a 10-7 record seems optimistic but not delusional, while 7-10 feels more realistic than it does pessimistic. I went looking for some detail — and comparisons — to give those types of seasons more personality than just a win-loss record. 

In the 7-10 version of Green Bay’s season, Love performs like Kenny Pickett did for the Pittsburgh Steelers last season.

As the only first-round quarterback in the 2022 NFL Draft, Pickett took the baton from Mitchell Trubisky in early October and pieced together the kind of first year would expect from a rookie starter on a decent but not great team. 

He threw more interceptions than touchdowns and ended up below the 65 completion percentage mark where the upper-echelon quarterbacks live. But as the season went on, his positives started to outweigh the negatives. He showed a nice combo of moxie, toughness and confidence. 

Most importantly, he was the best version of his rookie self after Thanksgiving. The Steelers won five of their final six games. During that stretch, he threw only one interception and played well late in tight wins against Baltimore and Las Vegas. 

The Steelers’ season wasn’t a success because they are an organization judged on postseason success — like the Packers — and they didn’t make the playoffs, but Pickett gave reason to believe. 

Love stringing together that kind of first year in a season where his team ends up being competitive, but not a playoff team feels fair.

Can Love Exceed Expectations?

Now let’s picture the 10-7 version of the Green Bay season, keeping Pickett’s rookie campaign on our minds while bringing Trevor Lawrence’s sophomore season into the mix. If Love and the Packers are to exceed expectations, Love would have to start the season as Pickett finished. That sort of play would keep the Packers at or near .500 until November.

Enter the Lawrence portion.

In this best-case-scenario version of Love’s first season, he would need to close his first year as a starter similarly to how Lawrence finished his second. Lawrence led the Jacksonville Jaguars to six wins in their final seven games, throwing 12 touchdowns to only two interceptions. 

It’s aspirational to expect Love to start the season playing well, and end it playing even better, considering his lack of starting experience. 

Pickett had seven starts before he turned the corner from shaky to solid last season. Lawrence had 27 before he morphed from a player with potential to a talented player in command. 

Love’s three-year apprenticeship behind an all-time great could suffice as enough “experience” to hit the ground running against the Chicago Bears on Sept. 10. Time will tell if he’s precocious enough to turn hope into reality early in his tenure.

In the meantime, here are four factors outside of Love’s talent alone that will affect his transition to Packers’ starting quarterback.

4 Other Factors to Consider

1.  Matt LaFleur’s Play-Calling Without Rodgers 

This is a somewhat underlying but sneaky good storyline to look forward to this season. Since LaFleur became the Packers’ coach in 2019, he’s only game planned with Rodgers at the helm. In their four seasons together, Rodgers completed two-thirds of his passes and threw 137 touchdowns compared to 25 interceptions. 

It allowed LaFleur to call plays, knowing Rodgers would complete a handful of challenging, precise passes each game and rarely turn it over. Rodgers also had a strong voice in what was called, as a quarterback of his experience and production should. 

Minus those factors, how will LaFluer proceed on game day? I think we’re about to see a game called precisely how he wants it. I’m curious to see how aggressive the passing game will or won’t be without Rodgers running the show. 

2. Will the Packers Run the Ball More? 

The tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon gives the Packers one of the NFL’s best one-two punches at running back, and if they gave good fortune with health up front, the offensive line is a quality one. 

Leaning into the run wouldn’t be a total 180, either, after they were in the league’s top half in rush play percentage (43 percent) last season. Would moving closer to 50 percent make life just a little bit easier on Love? 

Only three teams ran it more than half the time last year — Chicago, Atlanta and Baltimore — and one of them (the Ravens) made the playoffs. Running it that often shouldn’t be a goal. But highlighting Jones and Dillon more than a year ago is a good idea. 

3. Development of Young Pass Catchers

This will be huge for LaFleur, Love and Green Bay’s hopes of a winning season. The Packers return only two of their top five receivers from a year ago, and both are from the 2022 draft class. 

Christian Watson had 41 catches, and Romeo Doubs had 42. Without Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan and Randall Cobb around them and without Rodgers throwing them the ball, how Watson and Doubs’ transition from rookie contributors to leaders will be a defining part of the Packers’ passing game.

Adding to the intrigue is how Green Bay used its trio of picks in Rounds 2 and 3 last month. They drafted a tight end and receiver in Round 2 and another tight end in Round 3. 

Considering the pass-catching production that left this offseason, this group needs to hit. Between Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft, one of them has to be a quality player from the start, and another needs to be a reliable role player. 

I can’t ask all three to be productive and reliable as rookies, but they need a pair of them to contribute.  

4. Will Packers’ Draft-Rich Defense Improve? 

In the past eight drafts, Green Bay used each of its first-round picks — except in 2020 when they selected Love — on defense. Those first-rounders will make up more than half of the Packers’ starting defense this fall. 

The group was exactly middle of the pack in the most significant defensive category last season — scoring defense. If it can ascend into the top 10, Love will benefit. 

Soon minicamps, training camp and preseason games will arrive to sharpen the focus of what direction Love and Green Bay are headed. 

I expect Green Bay to be within a game of .500 either way (8-9 or 9-8). Anything better should be seen as a bonus, and anything less will likely make Year 2 a “prove it” year for Love. 

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Paul Burmeister, a former starting quarterback at Iowa, is a studio host with NBC Sports and the radio voice of Notre Dame Football. For a decade he worked as a studio host at NFL Network. Follow him on Twitter at @PaulWBurmeister.