Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Chris Farley and Ben Wolbransky break down their favorite props and novelty picks for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will provide plenty of betting opportunities. Josh Larky says you need to parlay these Kadarius Toney props on Sunday.
An in-depth betting breakdown of Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday:
Opening Spread: Eagles -2
Opening Game Total: 49.5
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (25.75), Chiefs (23.75)
Weather: Indoor venue.
Eagles: RT Lane Johnson, OG Landon Dickerson, Edge Robert Quinn, and CB Avonte Maddox were all held out of practice last week, but do not have an injury designation as of Monday night.
Chiefs: Out: WR Mecole Hardman. Questionable: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Kadarius Toney, LB Willie Gay, CB L’Jarius Snead.
At full strength, the Eagles have a top-five-level offensive line. Star right tackle Lane Johnson is playing through a torn groin muscle, while left guard Landon Dickerson has a hyperextended elbow. I’m still treating the Eagles’ offensive line as a top-five unit, but those injuries bring volatility to this otherwise outstanding group.
I have the Chiefs defensive front tiered as a fringe top-10 unit headlined by one of the NFL’s best interior defenders in Chris Jones. The Eagles have a moderate advantage in the trenches in this contest, though that margin could be reduced if Johnson or Dickerson’s injury situations trend down.
I have the Chiefs’ offensive line tiered as a top-10, bordering on a top-five group. I have the Eagles defensive front tiered as a top-five group. The Eagles led the league in sacks by a substantial margin with 70, and their front four has remarkable depth. The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is their interior, making this trench matchup a relative draw. The Eagles have a moderate advantage on the outside with a mild-to-moderate trench advantage overall.
Another factor in this trench matchup is Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain. Mahomes played well against the Cincinnati Bengals, but it was clear his ability to extend plays was significantly reduced. We can reasonably expect Mahomes’ ankle to be better against the Eagles than it was against the Bengals, but likely he still won’t be fully recovered. He’ll also be facing one of the league’s premier fronts this week, while the Bengals’ pass rush is more of a bottom-10 unit.
This is a great matchup between the No. 1 seeds from each conference. The Eagles have the best roster in the league, while the Chiefs have been the measuring stick in the AFC for several years now. Both Mahomes and Hurts are MVP finalists.
Kansas City is making its third Super Bowl appearance in four years. The Eagles have a number of difference makers from their Super Bowl LII title run. The Eagles would have the Super Bowl experience advantage on a lot of teams, but not Kansas City. From their coaching staff to their roster, the Chiefs have a wealth of experience in this type of game environment.
These teams didn’t play each other this year, but they play in Week 4 of the 2021 season. The Chiefs went into Philadelphia and won that contest, 42-30. The Eagles’ roster is significantly better this season, and the Chiefs no longer have Tyreek Hill, who had 186 yards receiving and three scores in that contest. That’s why I’m largely throwing that game out when analyzing this year’s Super Bowl matchup.
I’ve said this many times since the beginning of the year: the Eagles have the best roster in the league. They have top-five lines on both sides of the ball, a top-10 secondary and a top-10 collection of pass catchers. Sanders finished the year fifth in the league in rushing, and Hurts is one of the MVP finalists. No other team can make all of those claims.
The Eagles are capable of a dominant performance in every phase, and they can win in multiple ways. We saw this on full display as the Eagles blew out the Giants, then the 49ers to get to this spot. Talent and versatility are the Eagles’ biggest edge in every game, including this one.
The Eagles tend to start games pass-heavy, while leaning on the run more once they’ve acquired a significant lead. One of the keys to this game is if Hurts starts hot, any opponent has their hands full. Even Mahomes’ Chiefs.
The Eagles’ pass catchers have the advantage against the Chiefs’ secondary. If the Eagles’ premium offensive line holds up against the Chiefs’ good – but not premium front – Philadelphia has a realistic path to breaching 30 points.
Similarly, the Eagles’ secondary has the advantage against Kansas City’s average receiver group. If the Eagles’ talented, extremely deep front can match even their standard level of disruption, Mahomes will have to make many big plays to win.
That brings us to the concerns you have as an Eagles’ bettor. Mahomes is a magician that just won the Conference Championship a week removed from suffering a high ankle sprain. On top of that, Reid is one of the greatest offensive strategists in the history of football. Betting against those guys is your primary concern whenever you’re betting against the Chiefs.
Pressure is your other principal concern as an Eagles bettor. The Super Bowl isn’t just a football game, it’s the most-watched annual sporting event in the United States. Hurts and a number of the best players on this loaded Eagles roster haven’t been in this spot before. That doesn’t preclude Hurts from playing well or winning this game, but it’s a condition you have to factor into your process as an Eagles bettor. Especially against a Chiefs team that consistently takes advantage of their opponent’s mistakes late in games.
As always, any bet on the Chiefs starts as a bet on Mahomes and Reid’s offense. Mahomes playing at the level he did against the Bengals in the AFC Championship is remarkable. That said, Kansas City’s offense didn’t exactly blow out the Bengals or Jaguars to get here. That means you’re either building a Chiefs bet around Mahomes’ ability to exceed expectations against a talent-rich Eagles defense, while still being injured, or you’re betting against Hurts.
From a pure talent perspective, the Eagles’ offense has a number of paths to exceeding expectations in this matchup. How this game ends up ultimately boils down to how well Hurts plays. Hurts has shown he has a similarly massive ceiling to the elite quarterbacks in the league, but he’s not as consistent as Mahomes or the other members of that true upper echelon. Hurts has played in a National Championship, but he’s never played in a Super Bowl. That level of pressure is a positive for Chiefs’ bettors as Kansas City is vastly more experienced in this environment.
Your primary concern as a Chiefs’ bettor is the Eagles’ overall roster advantage. The Chiefs have advantages at quarterback, tight end and head coach. Philadelphia has them everywhere else while having its own quality quarterback, tight end and coaching staff. The Eagles are capable of beating anyone by a fair margin.
Even if the Eagles start hot, one of the best things about a Chiefs bet is Kansas City isn’t done, because no lead is safe against Mahomes. Another major positive is, much like the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick New England Patriots, the Mahomes and Reid Chiefs take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes late in games. If Mahomes has the ball late in a one-score game, no Eagles fan or bettor is going to feel safe in that position.
Score Prediction: Eagles 26, Chiefs 20
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 61-45
In the first installment of our two-part Super Bowl MVP series, we took a deep dive into the history of the Super Bowl MVP. We did that so we can make more informed bets. Now, we’re going to analyze more than two dozen players with a path to winning this year’s Super Bowl MVP. The lines provided in this column come from BetMGM. If you’re considering a Super Bowl MVP wager, make sure you line shop at multiple sportsbooks for the best odds and promotions.
If you’re considering a bet on a quarterback, 31 quarterbacks (~55%) have won the Super Bowl MVP. The most common paths to a quarterback winning Super Bowl MVP are either high-end production or a late, game-winning drive.
Can a dual-threat quarterback with a loaded supporting cast like Jalen Hurts win Super Bowl MVP? He sure can. Should we bet on him to do so at +110 odds? Not only do you have to essentially pick the winning team with that bet, but as we just discussed, quarterbacks win this award 55% of the time. I’d rather bet the Eagles’ money line at -125, considering how many of his teammates have a realistic path to a spike game.
If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, there’s a high chance Patrick Mahomes is the driving force behind that outcome. That said, I’d rather bet the Chiefs’ money line at +110 than I would on betting Mahomes to be the game’s MVP at +125.
>> READ: Mahomes’ Legacy Nearing All-Time Great QBs
A running back hasn’t won the Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII (32). That said, exceeding 100 total yards with two or more scores will put a running back right in the mix for this award.
Early in the week, Miles Sanders was available at 50:1 odds on FanDuel, which I viewed as an early misprice. Sanders has a realistic path to 100 yards rushing and multiple scores behind the Eagles’ top-five offensive line. I’m not head over heels at 30:1 odds, but I wouldn’t go out of my way to talk you out of that bet, either.
Isiah Pacheco has been the Chiefs’ primary ball carrier for months, but his usage has been scaled back during his past four games, which includes the playoffs. Pacheco has been a pleasant surprise this season, but he has yet to put up a monster box score. Considering how pass-centric the Chiefs’ offense is, a lot of things would have to bounce Pacheco’s way for him to win the Super Bowl MVP over Mahomes or Travis Kelce.
Jerick McKinnon went on a touchdown spree down the stretch, scoring nine times during his last six regular season games. Apart from the touchdowns, McKinnon has only breached 100 yards receiving once this season, and he’s only had double-digit carries in two games. McKinnon has only 30 total yards during this year’s playoffs.
If you’re considering a bet on a pass catcher, eight (~14%) wide receivers have won the Super Bowl MVP. No tight end has ever won this award. In most instances where a pass catcher has won this award, they accounted for a large portion of the team’s passing offense while the quarterback has more of an average or worse outing. Further, recent Super Bowls where a wide receiver wins the MVP have gone under their game total.
Kelce is the standalone primary pass catcher in Mahomes’ offense, which puts him in a strong position to win the Super Bowl MVP. A tight end has never won this award before, which might actually be an advantage for Kelce if he has a big game and the Chiefs win. That type of outcome offers an opportunity for history to be made, which could be a tiebreaker of sorts for voters.
A.J. Brown breached 100 yards receiving in five games this season while scoring multiple touchdowns in two of those matchups. Brown certainly has the spike game potential to win this award. However, my primary concern with betting on the Eagles’ offense in specific ways is they have four, bordering on five, players capable of massive production.
DeVonta Smith also breached 100 yards receiving in five games this season while scoring multiple touchdowns in one of those matchups. Four of those five 100-yard outputs came in the final six regular season games, including two with Gardner Minshew at the controls. Smith has considerable spike game potential, which is why I’d have his MVP odds closer to Brown’s. If I were an oddsmaker, I’d have Smith’s MVP odds in the 18:1 to 20:1 range.
I don’t see Dallas Goedert as an automatic cross-off, but he’d have to outproduce Hurts, Sanders, Brown and Smith to contend for this award. Considering Goedert only had one 100-yard game this season, he has a narrow path to winning Super Bowl MVP.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is coming off his best game of the season, which also happens to be just the second time he breached 100 yards receiving this year. The Eagles’ cornerbacks are among the best in the league, which reduces my already limited enthusiasm in Valdes-Scantling having another spike game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster breached 100 yards receiving twice this year, in back-to-back October games. Smith-Schuster is currently on the injury report and hasn’t breached 40 yards receiving in any of his last five games, which includes the playoffs.
I like Quez Watkins as a player, but he’s seeing limited opportunities, and he’s only exceeded 40 yards receiving in two games this year.
A number of Chiefs’ wide receivers are on the injury report, which could lead to another uptick in opportunities for Skyy Moore in the big game. Moore has only exceeded 50 yards receiving in one game this year. He’d need to have the outlier of all outlier performances to win Super Bowl MVP.
When Kadarius Toney is healthy, he’s a difference-making talent that would warrant serious consideration at 150:1 odds. Unfortunately, availability has been a major issue for Toney throughout his two-year career. Toney left the AFC Championship early with an ankle injury.
Defensive linemen have won the Super Bowl MVP three out of 56 times. If you’re considering a bet on one of those options, you’re looking for a decisive victory that’s primarily driven by the winning team’s pass rush. You’re then looking for one player to have multiple sacks and, ideally, at least one forced turnover.
Haason Reddick ended up being one of the more impactful signings of last year’s free-agent class. Reddick had 16 sacks, five forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries during the regular season. He had multiple sacks with at least one forced fumble or fumble recovery in three different games this year.
If Reddick has that kind of performance during an Eagles win in a low-scoring affair, he would have a real shot to win MVP. Not all major sportsbooks have released Super Bowl MVP odds yet. Reddick is on my short list of options I will bet on if I can get him at a better price.
If you’re going to bet on a Chiefs defender, Chris Jones has the best chance for a game-derailing performance by a considerable margin. Including the playoffs, Jones had five multi-sack games this season, and he’s one of the premier interior defenders in the league.
Brandon Graham has been a disruptive force for over a decade, but this season he had a career-best 11 sacks with three multi-sack games. If Graham has a big Super Bowl, he also has a compelling story, as he missed most of the 2021 season with an Achilles injury.
Frank Clark is a good player that would need an outlier performance against an elite offensive line to put himself in the Super Bowl MVP conversation.
George Karlaftis had an encouraging rookie year, and he was among my favorite players in last year’s draft class. Karlaftis had six sacks this season, but he’s still searching for his first multi-sack game.
Josh Sweat finished the year with 11 sacks and two multi-sack games. He had another three games with 1.5 sacks. Sweat is a pass rusher capable of spike games, which makes him an interesting super longshot option.
Fletcher Cox is at least a borderline Hall-of-Fame defensive tackle. If he has a big game, he’ll at least be in the conversation.
If you’re considering a bet on a linebacker, only three (~5%) have ever won the Super Bowl MVP. You’re going to need a performance with multiple splash plays (sacks or turnovers) without any offensive player on the winning team having a big game.
Nick Bolton is an interesting longshot candidate that finished with the second-most tackles in the league this season. In Week 11 against the Chargers, Bolton had 14 tackles, a forced fumble and an interception. If this contest ends up being low scoring in nature, and Bolton has the kind of box score he had against the Chargers, he could bring home the MVP.
T.J. Edwards has emerged as a rock-solid linebacker for the Eagles during the last two seasons. That said, he didn’t have an interception this season, and he only has two in his four-year career. Betting on Edwards to have a massive spike game against Mahomes’ offense is pretty thin.
If you’re considering a bet on a secondary player, only three (~5%) cornerbacks or safeties have ever won the Super Bowl MVP. You’re going to need multiple turnovers, maybe a score, without any offensive player having a game-breaking performance.
Darius Slay plays the overwhelming majority of his snaps on the perimeter (~91%). The Chiefs don’t have a perimeter receiver that “needs” the ball for their offense to function, which means they could go out of their way to avoid Slay if they wanted. Slay is an exceptional player, but I’d be surprised if he saw enough opportunities to have a monster game.
James Bradberry also plays the overwhelming majority of his snaps on the perimeter (~90%). Bradberry is one of the better second corners in the league, but he’s more likely to be tested than Slay. Keep in mind Bradberry has just one multi-interception game in his seven-year career.
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a versatile player who, in a best-case scenario, has a game with a forced fumble, an interception and close to 10 tackles in his range of outcomes.
Justin Reid is a good player, but he only has seven interceptions in his five-year career.
L’Jarius Sneed is currently on the injury report after playing only four snaps in the last week. Sneed has eight interceptions in his three-year career.
Trent McDuffie had a good rookie year, but he has yet to record an interception as a pro.
The stage is set – the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will face off in Super Bowl LVII, and we’ve already seen some significant line movement. The Chiefs opened up as 1.5-point favorites at FanDuel, but immediately big money started to pour in on Philadelphia. As it sits now, the Eagles are 2-point favorites at most sportsbooks. Here’s a way-too-early” dissection of this contest from a betting perspective.
Where I set the line: EVEN, Total: 47.5
On Sunday, we watched two different games play out. One offered more entertainment than the other. Regardless, let’s break down both contests and the effect they have on the betting lines. As you can see, I don’t think either team should be favored, but I understand why the line quickly moved in the Eagles’ favor.
I’ll cover some of the more controversial aspects of this game in the next segment, but I’d be remiss to ignore the many dominant aspects the Eagles displayed on Sunday. Despite Brock Purdy getting injured on the 49ers’ first drive, the Eagles’ defense deserves credit for their performance. They held one of the best offenses in the NFL to only 164 total yards, forced three turnovers, had three sacks and allowed the 49ers to gain only 11 first downs.
Jalen Hurts had a typical game. He didn’t do anything particularly game-changing, but he was efficient enough (15-25, 121 yards, no TDs, no INTs). He led the Eagles on several key touchdown drives, including an immediate response after the 49ers tied the score in the second quarter.
He also used his legs (11 carries for 39 yards) to gain several integral first downs. Hurts, Miles Sanders, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell gained 148 yards on the ground behind an assertive offensive line, one that pushed around the 49ers’ front seven for most of the game. The Eagles controlled the time of possession with ease (37:26 to 22:34).
The Eagles are united, confident and full of veteran leaders on the field. They don’t need to play perfectly to beat great teams. They’re insanely talented at every position, and they have tremendous depth on both the offensive and defensive lines. When they’re healthy, they look virtually unstoppable, and it’s no wonder why sharps like their chances against a hobbling Patrick Mahomes.
On paper, the Eagles’ win looked like just another dominant performance by the NFC’s best team. Those who watched the game from start to finish know quite a few things went in the Eagles’ favor from the start of the game.
Of course, even if the game played out differently and Purdy was healthy, there’s no telling if the result would have been any different. The Eagles are an extremely hard team to beat because of the talent they have on the field, but I still don’t necessarily trust Hurts to lead his offense against a great defense in big moments. We have yet to see that in his career, but the truth is we may not need to see it for Philadelphia to win a title – that’s how elite their roster is.
Let’s start with Mahomes. Even with a bum ankle, he was everything the Chiefs needed to gain a victory Sunday night. Underhand throws, sideways throws, precision bullets into coverage on one leg – you name it, Mahomes did it in the AFC title game. Inspired by the trash-talking all week from the Bengals’ community (including Cincinnati’s mayor, which was weird), Mahomes looked poised to show that he’s still the best QB in the NFL.
After Sunday’s win, that’s hard to argue. Mahomes went 29 of 43 (67%) for 326 yards, two TDs and no INTs. On the final drive of the game on a worn-out ankle, he found a way to run for a first down. That led to a personal-foul penalty on Bengals’ defensive end Joseph Ossai, putting Kansas City in field goal position to win the game. Harrison Butker nailed the attempt, and Kansas City won, 23-20.
Kansas City’s defense was also stellar throughout the game. Joe Burrow made some electric passes, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had the right game plan. Burrow was sacked five different times, two by All Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones, and the Chiefs forced Burrow into two uncharacteristic interceptions. Allowing only 309 total yards, the Chiefs’ defense imposed their will on the Bengals in several key spots, restricting Burrow and company to three different “three and outs” and multiple drives with negative yards. It was one of their best defensive performances of the year, and it came at the perfect time.
The Chiefs have a championship pedigree. Their defense has an uncanny ability to show up and play their best in the postseason, and a motivated Mahomes seems impossible to stop no matter what the in-game circumstances are. The Chiefs’ roster and coaches have a ton of Super Bowl experience, their offensive line was mostly brilliant in protecting Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense is one of the most dynamic in league history. Against an unfamiliar foe they won’t be an easy out, nor do I think they should be underdogs in two weeks.
There are reasons to think the Chiefs shouldn’t be favored, however.
One thing we’ll break down for the next two weeks is this game’s betting total. I think it’s too high. Kansas City’s defense overperforms in big games, and we know how good the Eagles’ defense is. Mahomes may not be 100%, and Hurts hasn’t proven he can lead an explosive offense against a top-tier defense. I think there’s value in betting on the under.
As far as betting on one side goes, I’m not committing yet. The sharps made up their minds early, betting big on Philadelphia and moving the line a full three-plus points. I want to take what I consider good value on the Chiefs. I have these two teams power-rated equally, but it’s hard to do that considering the injuries to Mahomes and other Chiefs’ skill players. I’ll lean toward the Chiefs and hope this goes up to a +3. When it does, I’ll be all over the underdog.
