Kadarius Toney

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Two-game slates force a player to be close to perfect, and the normal rules do not exist. Play three pass-catchers with one quarterback, two running backs from the same team, or a player against your defense. I already broke down the matchups, so I want to take you position by position with my thoughts before telling you my favorite stack, favorite play, and favorite fade.

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​https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/dfs/defensive-coverage-breakdown-for-every-conference-championship-team/

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Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes

• Patrick Mahomes is not coming in popular with that ankle injury
• In 2019, he had a high ankle sprain in Week 1 on the opposite foot, and in the next six weeks on the injury report averaged 300.3 yards passing and two passing touchdowns
• The Cincinnati Bengals will likely play Cover 0 and Cover 1 at a high rate; Mahomes ranked ninth in yards per attempt amongst QBs with at least 100 snaps against it
• Pair Mahomes with two pass-catchers in every build; for large field tournaments, three can be viable

Jalen Hurts

• The San Francisco 49ers will play a lot of zone coverage, and Jalen Hurts ranked third in yards per attempt against zone amongst QBs with 100 snaps against it
• Hurts is the only QB on the slate with an ability to run, and I expect him to use his legs against this 49ers defense
• The game script can go either way, and I believe we will see a big game from Hurts
• Hurts is my favorite quarterback on the slate, and I am willing to eat the chalk

Joe Burrow

• The Kansas City Chiefs will run a lot of Cover 1 or Cover 2 coverage against Burrow
• Joe Burrow averages 8.6 yards per attempt and a 70.4% completion percentage against these two coverages
• Against the Chiefs, Burrow led seven drives of at least eight plays. Five of his drives lasted four minutes of game time, and they will likely attempt to do that again
• The ceiling game for Burrow comes down to the offensive line holding up and his ability to continue attempting quick yardage throws
• Burrow is ranked third amongst QBs, and I will be underweight compared to the field

Brock Purdy

• I will not be playing Brock Purdy this weekend; the pricing doesn’t generate enough of an advantage for paying down, and I don’t believe he has a high enough ceiling

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey

• The 49ers have the advantage in the run game, and Christian McCaffrey is chalk I am willing to buy into
• McCaffrey has an injury to monitor, but Shanahan knows he has to dial up the run game for his rookie quarterback on the road
• The Eagles have given up over 100 yards rushing in six straight weeks
• The trenches tool gives the 49ers a significant advantage in the run game
• If you are not playing McCaffrey, I recommend getting to Elijah Mitchell

Joe Mixon

• Slow, methodical drives will lead to Joe Mixon rushing attempts 
• Mixon did not play in the first matchup. Samaje Perine ran for 106 yards and had six receptions for 49 yards
• Mixon is a target for Burrow out of the backfield and will get usage near the red zone
• I don’t believe Mixon is a must-have, but the slate of RBs is weak, and it won’t take a big game to be in the optimal build

Jerick McKinnon

• Jerick McKinnon is the Chiefs running back I want because of his ability to pass protect. Isiah Pacheco will out-carry him, but McKinnon will make it up in the passing game
• McKinnon played 65% of the snaps against the Jaguars, and I believe that was because of the Mahomes’ injury
• McKinnon is projected to be more popular than Pacheco

Miles Sanders

• I will not be getting Miles Sanders; I think the Eagles throw a lot more than run, and near the red zone, it will be Hurts

Elijah Mitchell

• McCaffrey is nursing an injury, and so is Mitchell, but I expect him to get enough carries to be viable
• Mitchell is my preferred punt play at running back because I expect the 49ers to be run-heavy

Samaje Perine

• Perine played extremely well against the Chiefs and has played over 40% of the snaps in each of the last two weeks
• The only problem with Perine is he is more popular than Mitchell, and Mitchell will likely see more touches

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase

• The most popular wide receiver on the entire slate, and it’s for a good reason
• Ja’Marr Chase averages 139 yards against the Chiefs and has four touchdowns in three games
• This season, he came off an injury and had seven receptions for 97 yards in that game, and whenever they saw Cover 1, it was an easy play for him to make
• If the Chiefs can play Cover 2 for most of the game, I don’t believe he will have a big game to pay off the price. If they get the lead and force them into Cover 1, the explosive play is just waiting to happen

A.J. Brown

• The 49ers’ corners can be beaten on the outside, and A.J. Brown will be able to out-physical them the way we saw DK Metcalf do in the wild-card round
• If the 49ers attempt to play more Cover 3 coverage, Brown will be the player to have, but in Cover 4, Smith has been the preferred option
• Crossing routes have hurt the 49ers this season, and Brown has 19% of his targets on these routes

DeVonta Smith

• DeVonta Smith has been the go-to for the Eagles against Cover 4, and in games where the 49ers will have the lead or be in a one-score game, they will play plenty of that coverage
• Smith has had eight targets in every game since Week 10, and I don’t think he will be under that number in this one
• Brown has the highest ceiling, but Smith can have a big game

Deebo Samuel

• I don’t trust Purdy enough to make plays down the field against a defense that is one of the best in the NFL. Deebo Samuel has not been getting much usage in the ground game to compensate for that

Tee Higgins

• Burrow spreads the ball against Cover 2 coverage, and I think that style of play will limit the pass-catching group
• Tee Higgins is priced in a spot where he will be popular, but it is chalk I am willing to go to because he has a high ceiling
• In Cover 1, I expect Chase to be the main focus for this defense, and they will try to trust their corners on an island vs. Higgins

JuJu Smith-Schuster

• JuJu Smith-Schuster is not great against man coverage. However, he will have the opportunity to run routes one on one with Eli Apple, and can win in that matchup

Brandon Aiyuk

• The Eagles’ safeties stay over the middle of the field, and James Bradberry gets beat in man situations down the sidelines
• The only concern I have for Brandon Aiyuk is Purdy’s ability to make the throw, but out of the 49ers’ pass-catchers, he is my preferred option

Tyler Boyd

• Tyler Boyd led the team in yards against Cover 2 coverage and is someone Burrow likes to target
• In Burrow stacks, I will get plenty of exposure to Boyd

Kadarius Toney

• Kadarius Toney is the most explosive player after the catch for the Chiefs, and I believe he is key to their offense performance.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

• The Bengals will play man-to-man coverage and bring pressure; the deep play will be there for the Chiefs’ pass catchers like Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Quez Watkins

• Quez Watkins is my favorite option under $4,000, and I believe he will have the opportunity to have a big play touchdown in the game

Tight End

Travis Kelce

• Travis Kelce will get plenty of work in this game, and you shouldn’t be concerned about what he can do
• The Bengals have a great scheme, but the chemistry between Mahomes and Kelce is too great

George Kittle

• George Kittle scares me off because of his price and because he might be needed a lot more in pass protection and blocking in the run game
• Kittle has a defensive scheme he can play well against, but like the wide receivers, I am not sure that Purdy can get the job done

Dallas Goedert

• The 49ers have one of the best linebacking crews in the NFL, but they will have plenty to deal with against this Eagles’ run game and wide receiver room
• Dallas Goedert is way too cheap on DraftKings, and is a strong play on the slate

Hayden Hurst

• Like the quarterback position this weekend, I don’t think Hayden Hurst can keep pace with the top portion of the tight end room

Defense/Special Teams

49ers

• The 49ers are viable, and I will be loading up those builds with the Chiefs-Bengals game

Eagles

• The safest defense on the slate is the Eagles’; they are at home and going up against a rookie quarterback
• I would correlate them with Hurts’ stacks because you want them to play with the lead and get after Purdy

Chiefs

• Their defensive line is very motivated, and I am not buying into how well the Bengals’ offensive line played against the Bills
• Chris Jones can be a game-wrecker, and I will be banking on him in this matchup

Bengals

• Lou Anarumo has slowed this team down and confused them in coverages
• They are the cheapest defense on the slate against a limited Patrick Mahomes

Favorite Stacks

• QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, WR Quez Watkins
  • Runback: RB Christian McCaffrey
• QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Kadarius Toney, TE Travis Kelce
  • Runback: WR Ja’Marr Chase
• QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tyler Boyd
  • Runback: WR Kadarius Toney

Favorite Play

Quez Watkins

Favorite Fade

Deebo Samuel

Player Pool

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