NFL Analysis
1/16/24
3 min read
Ranking NFL’s Best, Worst Coaching Decisions From WildCard Weekend
Our look at the good and the bad coaching decisions from this past week’s games is informed by metrics such as expected win probability added (xWPA).
BEST, WORST DECISIONS OF WEEK 18
worst: Texans Play it Safe
The situation: 5:32 left in the first quarter, tie game, fourth-and-2 from the Browns 2-yard line
The decision: Attempt a short field goal
The result: Made field goal, potentially left four points on the table
There were not many bad fourth-down decisions this week, a possible result of the coaches who make the playoffs to start with. Of the 12 coaches who are best at making fourth-down decisions based on our model, eight were in action this past weekend.
The Houston Texans had an early decision, and although it did not come back to haunt them, there was an opportunity to make a statement early in the game they chose not to execute.
On the opposing 2-yard line, the SIS model recommended going for it with 5.1 percent xWPA on the line, but the Texans decided to kick a short field goal. The resulting field goal increased their Win Probability, but not by nearly as much as gaining the first down.
The Texans played a complete game to take a decisive victory, but they need to take advantage of these red zone opportunities to continue winning in the playoffs.
Best: Lions Risk It for the Biscuit
The situation: 7:16 left in the second quarter, Lions up four, fourth-and-1 from the Rams 2-yard line
The decision: Go for it
The result: Scored touchdown, pushed the lead to two scores
Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions stayed true to their identity in their postseason victory, staying aggressive in key moments.
Similar to the Texans, they found themselves on the opposing 2-yard line early in the game, but unlike the Texans, they went for it. A field goal would have given them a seven-point lead, but a touchdown would have made it a two-score game.
Back at it @Samlaporta 🙌#LARvsDET | #AllGrit pic.twitter.com/FH1dnPVVdN
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) January 15, 2024
There was 5 percent xWPA on the line, but the result of the play actually increased their Win Probability by 8.3 percent with the resulting touchdown.
This decision was important in the moment, but it looks like an even bigger decision after the one-point victory. Campbell has been one of the top-ranked fourth-down decision-makers this year, which is one of the reasons for the Lions’ success in close games.
This article was written by Jeff Dean.
