NFL Analysis
1/2/24
5 min read
Ranking NFL’s Best, Worst Coaching Decisions From Week 17
Our look at the good and the bad coaching decisions from this past week’s games is informed by metrics such as expected win probability added (xWPA).
BEST, WORST DECISIONS OF WEEK 17
Second worst: Chargers Stuck in Mud
The situation: 6:24 to go in the third quarter, Chargers trail by 10 and have the ball fourth-and-2 on Denver’s 32-yard line.
The decision: Los Angeles goes for the field goal.
The result: Cameron Dicker’s 50-yard field goal is good, and the Chargers lose 16-9 after failing to score a single touchdown.
The Los Angeles Chargers offense looked dreadful against the Denver Broncos for the second time this season, going an entire game without scoring a touchdown. Facing a 10-point deficit in the third quarter and with possession at fourth-and-2 on the Broncos’ 32, the Chargers faced a scenario that, for many teams, would be an obvious "go for it."
A 50-yard field goal is by no means a sure thing (in fact, the Chargers would later have a 50-yard field goal attempt blocked). Realistically, Los Angeles needed at least one touchdown to have any chance of catching up to Denver.
The decision to go for the field goal cost the Chargers five percentage points of xWPA, and they lost their fourth straight game since Justin Herbert’s season-ending injury.
Second best: Packers Put on The Pressure
The situation: 13:24 to go in the second quarter, Packers lead by 10 and have the ball fourth-and-1 on Minnesota’s 24-yard line.
The decision: Green Bay goes for it.
The result: Jordan Love’s pass is incomplete.
The Green Bay Packers had a 10-point lead early in the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings. With a somewhat comfortable lead and possession on fourth-and-1 well within field goal range, many teams might have opted for a field goal as a safe way to extend the lead.
However, the Packers decided to put the pressure on the Vikings and go for it, and our win probability model agrees with this choice.
A 16-point lead is simply a lot more valuable than a 13-point lead. Even though Green Bay failed to convert, the decision to go for it was worth 3.5 percentage points of xWPA.
Going for it on short fourth-down scenarios can be valuable whether a team is leading or trailing, and it was a great choice for the Packers here.
Worst: Raiders Kill Their Own Playoff Hopes
The situation: 13:23 to go in the fourth quarter, Raiders trail by seven and have the ball fourth-and-4 on Indianapolis' 45-yard line.
The decision: Las Vegas punts.
The result: AJ Cole’s punt goes out of bounds at the 24-yard line, and the Raiders lose 23-20.
The Las Vegas Raiders had won three in a row going into Week 17 and magically still had their playoff hopes alive. With 13 minutes left, the Raiders faced a seven-point deficit and had the ball fourth-and-4 on the Indianapolis Colts’ 45-yard line.
A touchdown would have given Las Vegas an opportunity to tie or even take the lead. After overcoming such improbable odds to even stay in the playoff hunt, one would think the Raiders would recognize the value of being aggressive.
However, they opted for the punt, a major blunder according to our win probability model. The decision cost them 5.2 percentage points of xWPA — the worst decision by any team this week.
The decision would have been suboptimal regardless of the outcome, but to make matters even worse, Las Vegas’ punt went out of bounds at the Indianapolis 24-yard line. The Colts would maintain their lead through the end of the game and officially eliminate the Raiders from playoff contention.
Mahomes juked him and got the first 😮
— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2023
📺: #CINvsKC on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/sFjqko01pD pic.twitter.com/GstQ48HOVV
Best: Chiefs Seal The Deal
The situation: 9:09 to go in the fourth quarter, Chiefs lead by two and have the ball fourth-and-1 on Cincinnati’s 36-yard line.
The decision: Kansas City goes for it.
The result: Chiefs get the first down on a Patrick Mahomes scramble and eventually score on a field goal.
The Kansas City Chiefs have had an up-and-down year. While they have, at times, looked like less of the juggernaut so many expected, they were at least set up to end the regular season on a high note. With the opportunity to clinch yet another division title, Kansas City was up by two points early in the fourth quarter.
Facing fourth-and-1 on the Cincinnati Bengals’ 36-yard line, the Chiefs went for it. According to our win probability model, this was by far the best decision of the week.
Going for it was a great decision because any type of scoring play by the Chiefs would have extended their lead to at least four points, which means the Bengals would have probably needed a touchdown on their next drive if they wanted to stay competitive.
It may have been a somewhat obvious decision. Still, it resulted in 13.2 points of xWPA for Kansas City — the largest value of any Week 17 decision. It was a major factor in helping the Chiefs secure their eighth consecutive division title.
This article was written by Matthew Lim.
