NFL Analysis
12/26/23
4 min read
Ranking NFL’s Best, Worst Coaching Decisions From Week 16
Our look at the good and the bad coaching decisions from this past week’s games is informed by metrics such as expected win probability added (xWPA).
BEST, WORST DECISIONS OF WEEK 16
Second-worst: A 'Giff'-wrapped win for the Bills
The situation: Chargers’ ball with 12:40 left in the fourth quarter, Los Angeles down by eight, fourth-and-7 at the Bills’ 29-yard line
The decision: Field goal
The result: Kick is good, Chargers lose by two
With the Los Angeles Chargers coming in as underdogs with a backup quarterback thrust into the starting role, interim coach Giff Smith found himself in a close game late. In a one-possession game, Smith decided to try and set his team up for a winning touchdown and kicked a field goal.
Had the Chargers gone for it, they could have kept the drive alive after what had been a momentum-swinging fumble by James Cook. Instead of trying to tie the game, Smith elected to kick and chip away at the Bills’ lead.
This decision cost the Chargers 2.4 percentage points of xWPA and lessened the chances of a surprise win amid all of their injuries on the offensive side of the ball.
Second-best: 'Tis the season of Gibbs-ing
The situation: Lions’ ball with 8:28 left in the third quarter, Lions down by four, fourth-and-1 from the Vikings’ 34-yard line
The decision: Go for it
The result: Jahmyr Gibbs has an 18-yard run for the first down, lead-changing touchdown on the same drive
With the Detroit Lions down only four in the middle of the third quarter, Dan Campbell chose to hand the ball to explosive rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs took off for an 18-yard carry to convert the first down and bring the Lions into the red zone.
Detroit continued and capped off its seven-and-a-half minute long drive with a touchdown to take the lead, and the Lions never looked back. This decision put Detroit ahead in a win that would bring the team its first division title in 30 years.
Worst: Ghost of Christmas past haunts McCarthy
The situation: Cowboys’ ball with 12:35 left in the fourth quarter, down by nine, fourth-and-3 at the Dolphins’ 15-yard line
The decision: Field goal
The result: Kick is good, Cowboys lose by two
Down multiple possessions, Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy elected to kick a field goal instead of going for it with MVP candidate Dak Prescott, who had conducted a drive that started at their 25-yard line.
Despite Prescott moving the Cowboys all the way down to Miami’s red zone, the ball was taken out of his hands. This decision might have cost the Cowboys the game, as they lost by only two points.
The possible touchdown that was left on the board would have been the difference in this game, and the field position if the Cowboys failed would still have been in their favor. McCarthy’s decision lost 5.5 percentage points of xWPA and could have cost his team the win and a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Best: Vrabel jingles all the way
The situation: Titans’ ball with 6:27 left in the fourth quarter, Titans down by three, fourth-and-1 from the Seahawks’ 27
The decision: Go for it
The result: Tyjae Spears rushes for the first down, lead-changing touchdown scored on same drive
Down only a field goal late in the game, Mike Vrabel made a gutsy call (for some) to go for it on fourth-and-short rather try to tie the game with a field goal. After his team converted, the Ryan Tannehill-led Tennessee Titans were able to continue their drive down the field and score a lead-changing touchdown with only 3:21 left in the game.
The decision added 15.8 percentage points of xWPA, the most of the week. Even though the Titans came out of the game with a loss, Vrabel’s decision to go for it put the Titans in a position to win late in the game.
This article was written by Ryan Rubinstein.
