Expert Analysis
2/16/24
5 min read
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Bust Big-Money Quarterback Myth
Thank goodness for Patrick Mahomes.
Not for his incredible late-game performance in the Super Bowl yet again or the way he typically carries himself with class or anything like that, although those are positives as well.
Instead, I’m thankful Mahomes, hopefully, once and for all eviscerated the ridiculous notion you can’t win a Super Bowl with a quarterback with a top-of-the-market contract.
Narrative Gained Steam in 2010s
For those of you who are unaware, a narrative emerged during the last decade or so that having a quarterback with a big salary cap hit was an overly onerous anchor.
One that prevented a franchise from fielding a good enough team around that passer to win the whole thing. If you don’t believe me or forget this was a major topic of discussion for a while, just Google it.
At first, it felt like the argument was about quarterbacks on rookie contracts being the best way to have a championship-caliber squad. That goes back to Joe Flacco with the Baltimore Ravens in 2012 and Russell Wilson with the Seattle Seahawks in 2013.
Then, it shifted to quarterbacks making less than (insert your desired percentage here) of the salary cap. This happened after guys who clearly took less money than they could have — Tom Brady and Peyton Manning — won three in a row from 2014-2016.
A glorious playoff run by backup Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles (whose starting QB Carson Wentz was on a rookie deal), another title by Brady, and then the Kansas City Chiefs winning their first Super Bowl in 50 years with Mahomes on a rookie contract contributed to this.
Eventually, people started to believe it was nearly impossible to win it all with one of the highest-paid quarterbacks under center.
Recent History Tells A Different Story
It was foolish then, and Mahomes proves it is even more foolish now. I have no idea how something like this gets started unless it's a mechanism for owners to convince the most important person in their organization to “take less” for the “good of the team.”
Mahomes won the Super Bowl last year with a cap hit of more than $35 million, the highest ever for a Super Bowl championship player. This season, his cap hit was more than $37 million, the league's highest.
After posting this on social media, some suggested Mahomes is the outlier or the “exception that proves the rule”, which is simply not the case.
In 2021, Matthew Stafford won the Super Bowl and was far from being on a rookie contract. In fairness, his cap hit was a relative bargain at $20 million. The year before that, though, Brady won the Super Bowl with a cap hit of $28 million, which represented more than 14 percent of the cap.
Even now, some still talk about how no quarterback has had a cap hit of more than 20 percent of a team’s cap as the goalposts on this topic keep moving.
| Season | Super Bowl Champion | Quarterback | Cap Hit | % of Team's Cap |
| 2023 | Kansas City Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes | $37.1M | 16.9% |
| 2022 | Kansas City Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes | $35.8M | 17% |
| 2021 | Los Angeles Rams | Matthew Stafford | $21.3M | 10.7% |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tom Brady | $25M | 12.2% |
| 2019 | Kansas City Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes | $4.5M | 2.4% |
| 2018 | New England Patriots | Tom Brady | $22M | 12.2% |
| 2017 | Philadelphia Eagles | Nick Foles | $1.6M | 0.9% |
| 2016 | New England Patriots | Tom Brady | $13.8M | 8.6% |
| 2015 | Denver Broncos | Peyton Manning | $17.5M | 11.7% |
| 2014 | New England Patriots | Tom Brady | $14.8M | 10.6% |
Winning Teams Nearly Always Have A Top-10 Qb
What even is the point trying to be made? Is it ideal that your star quarterback would be on a rookie contract like C.J. Stroud in Houston or Brock Purdy in San Francisco?
Sure, that would be great, but good luck hitting on that player in general, let alone winning a championship with them. For every Stroud and Purdy, there’s a Bryce Young or a Trey Lance.
Or is the point the lower the cap hit is for your quarterback, the better team you can put around him to support him? Sure, I’ll buy that as well. Still, getting top-10 caliber quarterbacks to take far less money than the contracts they have earned and deserved is easier said than done.
Is it hard to win a Super Bowl with a quarterback making a top-of-the-market contract? I suppose but only in the context that it is hard to win Super Bowls at all. Do you know what is almost impossible in recent NFL history?
Winning the Lombardi Trophy, or getting anywhere even close, without a top-10 quarterback.
The last team to do it, arguably, was the 2019 49ers with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Ultimately, though, he did not make the plays late in the game, and Mahomes did, so the Chiefs began their dynasty.
In my mind, it starts with having a top-10-caliber player, or at least in the case of Flacco in 2012 or Foles in 2017, someone playing at a top-10 level during the postseason run.
Then, you need to find value elsewhere because you can’t have a full roster of top-of-the-market contracts.
Chiefs Lay Out a New Template
The Chiefs' value comes from the 2022 draft class put together by general manager Brett Veach. CB Trent McDuffie and DE George Karlaftis appear to be home runs in the first round, especially as later first-round picks.
After that, major contributors such as LB Leo Chenal (third round), CB Joshua Williams (fourth), CB Jaylen Watson (seventh) and RB Isaih Pacheco (seventh) all play significant roles on bargain basement contracts.
So, it’s that easy. Just have an absolutely incredible draft class of players on rookie contracts and pair it with arguably the best quarterback we’ve ever seen and you, too, can be a Super Bowl champ.
Just don’t tell me the quarterback has to be playing on the cheap, too.
