NFL Analysis
1/9/24
14 min read
NFL Wild-Card Weekend Power Rankings: Chiefs Rise Back into Top 5
Now that the regular season is over, we'll focus our weekly power rankings on the teams that made the playoffs.
Our rankings are driven by who teams are today, rather than what they’ve done over the course of the regular season. We’ll also factor in every team’s path to winning the Super Bowl, as well as their current injury situations.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Power Rankings
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) 
Seed: 1st
Odds: +310
The Baltimore Ravens finished the season with the league’s best record and its best defense, and Lamar Jackson will likely be the MVP. The Ravens had decisive wins against the Dolphins, Lions and 49ers, showing Baltimore can beat the league’s best and dominate them. Overall, the Ravens pair extreme reliability with a championship-caliber ceiling.
There are two big concerns in Baltimore’s quest for the Lombardi Trophy. The first is the team will likely need to beat one of the AFC’s perennial contenders in Buffalo or Kansas City in the AFC Championship.
The second is Jackson has only won a single playoff game in his career. This Ravens team is different than past iterations, but that is still an obstacle Baltimore needs to overcome.
Wild-Card Matchup: Bye
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-5) 
Seed: 1st
Odds: +220
The San Francisco 49ers can dominate games in every phase behind the league’s best, most complete roster. Brock Purdy had an MVP-caliber season with the deepest skill group in football.
San Francisco has a premium defense with the league’s most dynamic pass rush. On top of that, Kyle Shanahan is widely regarded as one of the league’s best strategists. The 49ers beat the Cowboys and Eagles by a combined score of 84-29 this season and have played in three of the past four NFC Championship games.
Simply put, the 49ers the pedigree and talent to win it all. The NFC is the theirs for the taking.
Wild-Card Matchup: Bye
3. Buffalo Bills (11-6) 
Seed: 2nd
Odds: +650
We’ve been higher than consensus on the Buffalo Bills for more than a month, so it was no surprise to us that they won five games to close out the regular season. Josh Allen’s Bills spent the last month playing must-win games, which could give them an advantage in the postseason.
Overall, Buffalo won five games by at least three scores, beating the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins down the stretch. The Bills haven't always been consistent, but they are the biggest threat to the Ravens in the AFC.
Buffalo also has one of the few quarterbacks in the league who can carry a game. Outside of the teams with byes, the Bills have the easiest matchup on wild-card weekend.
Wild-Card Matchup: vs. Steelers
4. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) 
Seed: 2nd
Odds: +750
The Dallas Cowboys have one of the league’s most talented rosters, and they finished 12-5 for the third consecutive season. The Cowboys’ pass defense can dominate games, but Dallas is vulnerable against the run. Dak Prescott had an MVP-caliber season, but the Cowboys' offense has become one-dimensional and reliant on CeeDee Lamb.
Dallas won nine games by three scores or more, so it has the raw materials to go on a run. The question is: If this team faces San Francisco in the NFC Championship game, can Dallas knock the 49ers off? The Cowboys have lost their last three games to the 49ers, including playoff losses the past two years.
Wild-Card Matchup: vs. Packers
5. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) 
Seed: 3rd
Odds: +1000
The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense hasn’t looked right all season, that’s no secret. However, we’re in the postseason, and Kansas City has played in the last five AFC Championship games. The Chiefs have played in three Super Bowls and won two of them during that span.
At the end of the day, Patrick Mahomes is the last guy in the world you want to face with your season on the line.
Wild-Card Matchup: vs. Dolphins
6. Detroit Lions (12-5) 
Seed: 3rd
Odds: +1800
The Detroit Lions had a successful, memorable year driven by their well-rounded, talented offense. The Lions also gave up 807 passing yards to Nick Mullens in two of their last three games.
If Detroit is going to make any noise this postseason, its defense needs to play like it did in Dallas in Week 17. If it doesn't, the Lions might not make it out of the Wild-Card round against Matthew Stafford’s Rams.
Wild-Card Matchup: vs. Rams
7. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) 
Seed: 6th
Odds: +4500
The Los Angeles Rams are one of the hottest teams in the league, going 7-1 after their Week 10 bye. Their sole loss came on the road against the Ravens during an overtime shootout. The Rams’ backups even beat the 49ers’ reserves in the regular-season finale.
Los Angeles won it all in 2021, which was Matthew Stafford’s first year with the team. The Rams’ defense has lost significant talent since then, but you could argue the team's offense is better now than it was then.
The combination of Stafford and coach Sean McVay makes Los Angeles a wild-card team with a path to going the distance. The Rams are one of the few teams in the NFC that can give the 49ers a competitive game without it being a surprise.
Wild-Card Matchup: at Lions
8. Cleveland Browns (11-6) 
Seed: 5th
Odds: +3500
The Cleveland Browns beat the 49ers and Ravens this season, which means they can beat anyone. Cleveland’s supremely talented defense is what makes it dangerous, while Joe Flacco’s passing attack pushed the Browns into the playoffs down the stretch.
Flacco finished his regular season by throwing for more than 300 yards in four consecutive games. That’s one of the biggest surprises of the year, but counting on those types of performances against the league’s best is a big ask. If Cleveland goes on a run, it’s likely the defense will drive that outcome.
Wild-Card Matchup: at Texans
9. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) 
Seed: 5th
Odds: +1600
The Philadelphia Eagles were 10-1 before losing five of their last six games. They were blown out by Dallas and San Francisco during that span, then lost to the Cardinals in Week 17. Philadelphia didn’t play its starters for most of the regular season finale against the Giants, but those players struggled while they were in.
The Eagles are a free-falling team with question marks in multiple areas, as opposed to two months ago when their secondary was the only real concern.
Once the playoffs start, regular-season results no longer matter. The Eagles have enough talent to make some noise in the postseason, but they will need to transform — right now — to do that. The Eagles dominated the Buccaneers 25-11 back in Week 3. If Philadelphia starts to peak, its talented roster makes them a threat to anyone.
Wild-Card Matchup: at Buccaneers
10. Miami Dolphins (11-6) 
Seed: 6th
Odds: +1600
The Miami Dolphins lost three of their last five, causing them to fall from the division lead and the AFC’s second seed down to the sixth seed.
In the past two weeks, they lost to Buffalo and were blown out by Baltimore. Back in Week 9, Miami lost to the Chiefs in Germany. Overall, the Dolphins went 1-5 against playoff teams, including losses to the AFC’s three top contenders.
At full strength, the Dolphins have enough talent to beat anyone. In that scenario, Miami would be several spots higher in these rankings. Unfortunately, the Dolphins will be without several starters on defense with several offensive players in danger of missing this weekend. That’s not a good situation to be in when heading into Kansas City to face Mahomes in the playoffs.
Wild-Card Matchup: at Chiefs
11. Houston Texans (10-7) 
Seed: 4th
Odds: +4000
C.J. Stroud has already established himself as a dangerous man to bet against, and DeMeco Ryans did a tremendous job in his first year as head coach. The Houston Texans stealing a win against Tennessee with Case Keenum at quarterback is a big reason why the Texans are in this position. Together, Ryans and Stroud give Houston a bright future moving forward.
It wouldn’t be a major surprise if the Texans walked away with a win on wild-card weekend. Similarly, it wouldn’t be shocking if Houston gave one of the AFC’s perennial heavyweights a game in the Divisional Round.
That said, from a pure talent standpoint, the Texans will play from a talent deficit against virtually any playoff opponent.
Wild-Card Matchup: vs. Browns
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) 
Seed: 4th
Odds: +6000
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers played their best football down the stretch, winning five of their last six. With that said, the biggest wins Tampa Bay had over that period came against the Packers and Jaguars.
The Eagles are reeling, which makes this matchup a winnable game for the Buccaneers. Things start to get thin in a hurry for Tampa Bay beyond that, because they’d likely head to Dallas or San Francisco in the Divisional Round.
Wild-Card Matchup: vs. Eagles
13. Green Bay Packers (9-8) 
Seed: 7th
Odds: +9000
The Green Bay Packers won six of their last eight games, which includes wins over the Chiefs and Lions. From a pure talent perspective, the Packers could give Dallas a game if Green Bay’s defense plays to its potential.
Even if the Packers knock off the Cowboys, it’s hard to see Green Bay beating the 49ers coming off a bye in the Divisional Round.
Wild-Card Matchup: at Cowboys
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) 
Seed: 7th
Odds: +12000
Mike Tomlin’s streak of consecutive seasons without a losing record has reached an astounding 17. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been a tough out for a long time, even in down years, since Tomlin took over.
QB Mason Rudolph added a spark to the offense when he took over in Week 16, but the Steelers scored 17 points against the Ravens’ reserves last week. It also looks like Pittsburgh will be without defensive linchpin T.J. Watt.
Last season, the Steelers were a radically different team while Watt was sidelined due to injury. It would be a genuine surprise if the Steelers beat the Bills.
Wild-Card Matchup: at Bills
