Betting
10/21/22
8 min read
NFL Week 7 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Giants vs. Jaguars
New York Giants (5-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)
Opening Spread: Jaguars -3.
Opening Game Total: 42.5.
Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (22.75), Giants (19.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened between Jaguars -2.5 and Jaguars -3.
- This line has moved up to Jaguars -3.5 as of Wednesday night.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jaguars -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jaguars -3.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total remains at 42.5 points as of Wednesday night.
Notable Injuries
Jaguars: Questionable: WR Marvin Jones Jr., WR Jamal Agnew, DL Folorunso Fatukasi, DL DaVon Hamilton, LB Foyesade Oluokun, CB Shaquill Griffin.
Giants: Questionable: RB Saquon Barkley, WR Kadarius Toney, LT Andrew Thomas, C Jon Feliciano, Edge Azeez Ojulari, Edge Oshane Ximines.
The Jaguars Offense vs. Giants Defense
This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup. The Jaguars have a top-10 caliber offensive line. When New York’s front is at full strength, they are a top-10 caliber defensive line. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jaguars are 2-4 against the spread this season.
- The Jaguars are 4-2 on overs this season.
- Trevor Lawrence is 7-16 against the spread in his career.
- Trevor Lawrence is 9-14 on overs in his career.
- Doug Pederson is 40-46 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Doug Pederson is 43-43 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars Offense
- The Jaguars are scoring 23 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- Jacksonville is 21st in the league in yards passing per game and 9th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Travis Etienne has at least 10 carries in three of his last four games.
- Etienne is the most explosive player on the Jaguars entire offense, his role is trending up and it would be no surprise if that continues.
- Jaguars target share figures for Christian Kirk (22.8%), Zay Jones (21.6%), Marvin Jones (17.5%), and Evan Engram (16.1%).
- Jaguars air yards share figures for Marvin Jones (30.4%), Christian Kirk (28.1%), Zay Jones (20.3%), and Evan Engram (16.5%).
- Per TruMedia, Evan Engram has played 121 snaps as an inline tight end, 51 on the perimeter, and 104 in the slot.
Giants Defense
- The Giants have allowed 18.8 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
- Our Pro Scouting Department has the Giants Defense ranked ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Giants have allowed the sixth most yards rushing per game and the third fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this year.
- New York has given up the second fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this season.
- The Giants have allowed the seventh most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Giants have allowed the sixth most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Giants Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
I have the Jaguars front ranked as a top-10 unit, which is a full tier higher than I had them to start the season. The Giants offensive line is steadily improving, in particular right tackle Evan Neal is already playing better. That said, the Jaguars have two young, blue chip edge rushers whose speed could give Neal some issues. I’m treating this trench matchup as if the Jaguars have a moderate advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Giants are 5-1 against the spread this season.
- The Giants are 2-4 on overs this season.
- Daniel Jones is 24-20 against the spread in his career.
- Daniel Jones is 17-25-2 on overs in his career.
- Brian Daboll is 5-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brian Daboll is 2-4 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Giants Offense
- The Giants are scoring 21.2 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- New York is 31st in the league in yards passing per game and fourth in yards rushing.
- Daniel Jones is among the best running quarterbacks in the league.
- Our Pro Scouting Department has Saquon Barkley ranked as the second best running back in the league to this point in the season.
- Per the Edge, Saquon Barkley is second in the league in yards rushing with 616. Barkley is seventh among running backs in yards receiving with 155.
- Rookie wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson has the best shot of making an impact among an underwhelming group of Giants pass catchers.
Jacksonville Defense
- The Jaguars have allowed 19 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the 28th most yards rushing per game and the second most receiving yards per game to running backs this season.
- Jacksonville has given up the 16th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jaguars have allowed the 19th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Jaguars vs. Giants
Chris Farley and I discussed this last Monday on Betting the NFL, the way this line opened gave us both an initial lean towards the Jaguars side. The further I’ve dug into this game, the more I see it as a very difficult matchup for the Giants from a talent perspective. Chris Long sees this as a game the Giants can lose as well.
New York is an unexpected 5-1, while Jacksonville is in desperation mode at 2-4. Jacksonville is fast on defense with a pair of young, blue chip edge rushers. Giants rookie right tackle Evan Neal is already showing signs of improvement, but the Jaguars have two fast edge rushers that can test Neal, like Dallas did several weeks ago. The Jaguars defense is fast in general, which is a problem for one of the league’s most underwhelming passing attacks. Doug Pederson was the head coach of the Eagles during Daniel Jones first two years in the league. While Pederson doesn’t call the defense for Jacksonville, it would not surprise me in the slightest if the Jaguars went out of their way to make Jones play from the pocket.
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If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you are betting on their defense getting the better of a limited Giants offense. Your biggest concern on a Jaguars bet is that their offense underperforms against a stingy Giants defense. While the offenses of these two teams don’t play each other, the Jaguars are better than the Giants at quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, and offensive line. Since both defenses are fairly similar, the Jaguars are a more desperate, more talented team than the Giants.
If you’re betting on the Giants, you are betting on a tough, very well coached team that has blown expectations out of the water with their 5-1 start. After their recent victories against the Ravens and Packers, the Giants should be treated as a top-10 defense. Their offense outside of Saquon Barkley, on the other hand, is doing just enough to win these tight, defensive-minded contests. Your biggest concern on a Giants bet is that the well runs dry on their offense being able to get by with the two or three scoring drives that they manufacture each week.
Awards Market Ramifications: Brian Daboll is a Coach of the Year contender. Saquon Barkley is the Comeback Player of the Year favorite. Devin Lloyd and Trayvon Walker are Defensive Rookie of the Year contenders.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be taking the Jaguars in winner pools. There are still several days until picks lock in most pools, but right now Jacksonville is the much less popular pick despite being the favorite in this game.
Spread Pool: In spread pools where I can get the Jaguars at or below market price, I will likely take them at least once. In the DraftKings Pick’Em pool where the Jaguars are -3.5-point favorites, I’ve been debating taking them anyway with my 21- or 20-win entries. Many players with strong early entries will opt for the safer value picks when they can, where I still lean towards the Jaguars side at -3.5. I may end up avoiding this game entirely on DraftKings, but that play is on my radar.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 21-9
Props 2022: 19-12
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