NFL Analysis
12/27/23
4 min read
NFL Week 17 Injury Analysis: Browns, Texans Outperforming Injuries
Back in the beginning of November, we looked at which teams have been impacted the most by injuries through (roughly) the first half of the season.
In the seven weeks since we last wrote about this topic, 11 different quarterbacks have missed a game due to injury. Teams have had to scramble to fill holes at the most important position on the field, and it has resulted in a really disjointed offensive season as the weeks have gone on.
SIS has, for the last few years, created an analytical World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking. This is a system that uses a multiyear recency-weighted average of our player value metric Total Points to measure who the top quarterbacks in the league are at any given point. (The top three right now are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott.)
So far this season, just four of 16 weeks (25 percent) have had more than 70 percent of attempts coming from the “starter-worthy” quarterback class. Even last year, when a ton of backup quarterbacks started at least one game, that rate was 12 of 18 (67 percent).
It’s been a rough year for the most crucial position, and that shows in our list of the teams that have lost the most value because of injuries.
For this, we use Total Points lost, taking each player’s last year of games as a measure of their per-game value. Total Points puts player value on a scale of expected scoreboard points, so a player who averages two Total Points per game roughly contributes (or prevents) two points per game to his team.
This summary is only counting injuries that occurred after cutdown day in August. That way, we avoid counting injuries that didn’t actually affect the in-season roster.
Most Total Points Lost to Injury Through Week 16
| Team | Total Points Lost | Total Games Missed |
| Browns | 174 | 93 |
| Texans | 146 | 144 |
| Panthers | 143 | 159 |
| Vikings | 136 | 87 |
| Jets | 130 | 104 |
| Patriots | 117 | 130 |
| Dolphins | 112 | 100 |
| Lions | 109 | 130 |
| Giants | 101 | 98 |
| Bills | 101 | 80 |
Cleveland Browns coach Kevin Stefanski should get strong consideration for coach of the year, and the above table makes it clear why. The Browns lost three of their most important offensive players — Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb and Jack Conklin — early in the season. And when you add in all Cleveland's injuries to backup quarterback, it’s no surprise the team sits at the top of this list. What is a surprise is that the Browns have won two-thirds of their games!
Let’s not give ignore the Houston Texans, of course, who have similarly outperformed expectations despite major injury losses, although those losses have been less focused on a few key players.
The Texans and Carolina Panthers are going to be linked for years based on their quarterback situations, but they also are linked this season by injury misfortune. They have each suffered their biggest losses in the secondary (Derek Stingley Jr. and Jaycee Horn), enduring a much greater volume of games missed compared with the other top-five teams that have suffered big-ticket quarterback injuries.
Fewest Total Points Lost to Injury Through Week 16
| Team | Total Points Lost | Total Games Missed |
| Raiders | 22 | 72 |
| Jaguars | 30 | 71 |
| Rams | 32 | 101 |
| Broncos | 35 | 37 |
| Chiefs | 39 | 65 |
On the other end of the spectrum, it isn’t a shock that the teams above that have suffered the least from an injury perspective have at worst a 6-9 record so far. While the Los Angeles Rams have dealt with quite a bit of injuries — more missed games than the Browns — they’ve avoided major losses. (Note that this data doesn’t count Cooper Kupp, whose injury came before the season began.)
The three-team tie in the AFC South takes a different look at the context of these injury outcomes. Had every team suffered similar injury results, the Texans would have been in the driver’s seat and the Jacksonville Jaguars would have been in trouble. The actual result makes for a more exciting finish to the season, of course, but we’d all have preferred to see teams such as the Texans dealing with fewer ailing players.
This article was written by Alex Vigderman.
