NFL Analysis
12/21/23
12 min read
NFL Week 16: Expert Picks, Predictions For Every Game
The Week 16 slate brings two marquee matchups, along with two games on Saturday and three on Christmas Day. As teams start to get mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, motivation becomes a factor late in the season.
Let’s jump into The 33rd Team’s expert picks and predictions for all 16 games.
Thursday Night Football
Rams vs. Saints
Spread: Rams -4
Total: 45.5
Week 16 kicks off with a strong matchup between two highly motivated NFC playoff contenders. The Los Angeles Rams have the better quarterback, coach and overall offense. The New Orleans Saints have a better defense with a more well-rounded roster.
The Rams have been surging, winning four of their last five. And that lone loss came against the Ravens, in Baltimore, in overtime.
The Saints are 2-2 since their Week 11 bye, and they’ve failed to take advantage of their very manageable schedule. New Orleans has been inconsistent all season and has struggled to finish drives. If that trend continues against the Rams, Los Angeles will walk away with a win here.
Score Prediction: Rams 23, Saints 20
Saturday Slate
Steelers vs. Bengals
Spread: Steelers +2.5
Total: 37
Mason Rudolph takes over for a struggling Mitch Trubisky in this matchup. From the Pittsburgh Steelers’ side of things, a win comes via a strong defensive effort paired with a clean game on offense. That was the formula back in Week 12 when the Steelers beat the Cincinnati Bengals 16-10.
Jake Browning has kept the Bengals’ season alive, leading a three-game winning streak since that loss to the Steelers. Two of those wins were three-point victories that came in overtime (against the Jaguars and Vikings). Brownings’ Bengals deserve credit, but luck has been on their side during this winning streak.
Both teams will be highly motivated, but the Steelers are in more desperate need of a win.
Score Prediction: Steelers 16, Bengals 13
Chargers vs. Bills
Spread: Chargers +11.5
Total: 44
The Los Angeles Chargers’ 63-21 loss to the Raiders last Thursday night is among the worst defeats in recent memory. That embarrassing effort led to coach Brandon Staley being fired. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, firing Staley doesn’t bring back injured quarterback Justin Herbert. Now, with Easton Stick under center, the Chargers host the red-hot Buffalo Bills.
The Bills have beaten the Chiefs and blown out the Cowboys over the past two weeks. Perhaps more importantly, Buffalo has won both of those games without needing Josh Allen to carry the team. If the Bills continue to play like they have since their Week 13 bye, the Chargers could lose by distance again.
Buffalo is still a desperate team that wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today. Expect them to be highly motivated against the free-falling Chargers on Saturday night.
Score Prediction: Bills 33, Chargers 13
Sunday Slate
Vikings vs. Lions
Spread: Vikings +3.5
Total: 47
The Minnesota Vikings’ playoff hopes are starting to slip away — the team has dropped three of its last four games. Nick Mullens exceeded expectations in his first start as a Viking last week. Minnesota also got its first 100-yard rusher on the season in Ty Chandler last week. Brian Flores’ defense couldn’t close in Cincinnati, but that unit is the primary reason the Vikings are still alive in the NFC playoff picture.
The Detroit Lions bounced back in a big way last week in their 42-17 win over the Broncos. Before that contest, the Lions’ defense had been struggling mightily since its Week 9 bye. If Detroit is going to make any noise in the playoffs this year, their defense needs to significantly improve. The unit will have an opportunity to take another step in the right direction against Mullens this week.
Score Prediction: Lions 23, Vikings 20
Panthers vs. Packers
Spread: Panthers +5
Total: 36.5
The Green Bay Packers have had an interesting month, beating the Lions and Chiefs before losing to the Giants and Buccaneers. Last week’s borderline blowout loss to Tampa Bay was particularly concerning. Now, the Packers face the Carolina Panthers’ non-functioning offense.
Green Bay’s defense is in a major correction spot in this matchup and has the talent to win this game outright. Jordan Love’s offense, however, has been up and down all season. If that unit plays like it did against Detroit and Kansas City, this game won’t be close.
Score Prediction: Packers 17, Panthers 13
Falcons vs. Colts
Spread: Falcons -1
Total: 44.5
Few teams take three skill position players with top-10 draft picks and sporadically deploy them. That’s what Atlanta Falcons coach Arthur Smith has done this year with Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson.
On top of that, Atlanta is once again benching Desmond Ridder for Taylor Heinicke. The Falcons have a talented roster — on both sides of the ball — which is why they are, arguably, the league’s most frustrating team.
Shane Steichen’s Indianapolis Colts are on the opposite side of the spectrum: The Colts are the league’s most overachieving team. Indianapolis would make the playoffs if the season ended today, which the team has accomplished despite being without a number of key players.
In this matchup, the Falcons have the better roster, but the Colts have the better coaching staff. Atlanta is coming off two losses that have cost it the NFC South lead and is the more desperate team in this matchup.
Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Colts 20
Texans vs. Browns
Spread: Texans +2.5
Total: 40
C.J. Stroud is trending toward missing his second-straight game with a concussion. If that continues, Case Keenum will get another start. The Houston Texans beat Tennessee without Stroud, but the Cleveland Browns are a different animal.
The Browns’ defense returned to form last week against Chicago. As long as that continues, Cleveland is a dangerous team capable of beating anyone. Joe Flacco has given the Browns more stability and a higher ceiling on offense.
If Stroud misses this contest, Flacco just needs to play a clean game and string together a few scoring drives. If Stroud plays, Flacco will likely need to do more for the Browns to leave Houston with a win.
Score Prediction with C.J. Stroud: Texans 21, Browns 20
Score Prediction without C.J. Stroud: Browns 17, Texans 13
Jets vs. Commanders
Spread: Jets -3
Total: 37.5
Now that the New York Jets are eliminated from the playoffs, motivation is a factor for them. The Jets’ defense is coming off its worst game of the season last week in Miami. As long as the unit plays hard in this contest, it can carry New York to victory. The Jets’ pass rush will have a trench advantage against the volatile Washington Commanders.
The Commanders have the most beatable pass defense in the league, one Zach Wilson could have some success against. If Wilson can play after suffering a concussion last week, New York could win this game with some distance. If Wilson misses this contest, it creates more paths for a Washington victory.
Score Prediction with Zach Wilson: Jets 20, Commanders 10
Score Prediction without Zach Wilson: Commanders 13, Jets 10
Titans vs. Seahawks
Spread: Titans +2.5
Total: 42
Will Levis suffered an ankle sprain last week, which could thrust Ryan Tannehill back into action for the Tennessee Titans. This is the rare situation where a potential move to the backup quarterback won’t be a downgrade. This would serve as a showcase game for Tannehill if he gets the start.
Tennessee is out of the playoff picture, but it is a hard-nosed, well-coached team.
Whether Drew Lock or Geno Smith plays this week, pass protection is the key to this contest for the Seattle Seahawks. If Seattle can mitigate the Titans’ pass rush, the Seahawks’ exceptional wide receiver trio could have a field day in this matchup. If Tennessee can consistently pressure either quarterback, the Titans could knock off Seattle.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Titans 23
Buccaneers vs. Jaguars
Spread: Buccaneers +1
Total: 43.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off their best game of the season in their decisive win against Green Bay. Baker Mayfield drove that outcome with a monster game. On top of that, Rachaad White now has at least 80 rushing yards in each of his last four games. Tampa Bay is a more well-rounded team today than it was when the season started.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are on a three-game losing streak after a sloppy game against Baltimore last week. Since the Jaguars’ Week 9 bye, Jacksonville’s running game has struggled, making its offense more one-dimensional.
That’s not a major issue in this matchup because you have to throw against the Buccaneers to beat them. Trevor Lawrence is capable of doing exactly that. Both teams are highly motivated — another loss could cost them both a playoff berth.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Buccaneers 20
Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Spread: Dolphins -1.5
Total: 51
This contest is between the two highest-scoring offenses in the league. Tyreek Hill’s availability is the biggest question mark heading into this contest for the Miami Dolphins. Even if he plays, he’ll be playing through an ankle injury.
An interesting wrinkle here is that Buffalo and Arizona both beat the Dallas Cowboys’ defense through run-centric game plans. It will be interesting to see if Mike McDaniel deploys a similar approach against Dallas. Be sure to check in on the state of Miami’s offensive line before kickoff. If the unit is down multiple starters, the Cowboys’ pass rush will have a major edge in this matchup.
Dak Prescott’s offense laid an egg in Buffalo last week. The Cowboys are in a correction spot against a Dolphins defense that is enduring injuries to several starters.
Both teams have the reputation of smashing mediocre opponents while underwhelming against contenders. Whoever wins this contest can take a major step in shedding that label.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Dolphins 21
Bears vs. Cardinals
Spread: Bears -4
Total: 44.5
The Chicago Bears have been a much tougher out in the second half of the season than they were in September. Chicago’s offense has been inconsistent, but its defense has transformed into a top-10-type unit.
Kyler Murray is a dynamic talent who’s capable of carrying the Arizona Cardinals’ offense, but the Bears have allowed 20 points or fewer in four of their last five games. If Justin Fields can pass that 20-point mark, there’s a good chance Chicago will walk away with a win here.
Score Prediction: Bears 27, Cardinals 20
Sunday Night
Broncos vs. Patriots
Spread: Broncos -6.5
Total: 34
This is a prime-time matchup between two well-coached teams with rock-solid defenses — but the Denver Broncos have a few advantages in this matchup. The Broncos have a unique home-field advantage at altitude, and they are still in the playoff race. Denver is highly motivated, while the New England Patriots are playing primarily for pride.
Bailey Zappe has been an improvement at quarterback for New England over the past two weeks. Still, if the Patriots exceed expectations on offense, it’s likely through their run game. Russell Wilson has a much higher ceiling than Zappe, which gives Denver more paths to victory.
Score Prediction: Broncos 16, Patriots 10
Christmas Day
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Spread: Chiefs -10
Total: 41.5
The Las Vegas Raiders have been a feisty 3-3 since Antonio Pierce took over in Week 9. Their defense, in particular, has regularly exceeded expectations over that stretch. Aidan O’Connell’s offense, on the other hand, has been unreliable. That group will need to do more to steal a win in this matchup.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense has underwhelmed this season, but the team’s 31 points against the Raiders in Week 12 is its second-highest scoring output of the year. Kansas City likely wins this game. The question is whether the Chiefs do so by distance like they did in Week 12.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 13
Eagles vs. Giants
Spread: Eagles -11.5
Total: 43
The Philadelphia Eagles have now lost three in a row, but they finish out the year with three games against sub-.500 teams. Two of those games come against the New York Giants, who will have their hands full in this contest.
Philadelphia’s pass rush will have a trench advantage in this matchup, with a massive one in the interior. Tommy DeVito has thrown 160 passes over seven games, and he’s taken 35 sacks. If the Eagles play with a lead as they are projected to do, they could reach double-digit sacks in this contest.
In that scenario, Philadelphia could get back on track with a very decisive win.
Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Giants 13
Monday Night
49ers vs. Ravens
Spread: 49ers -5
Total: 46.5
We close out the Christmas slate with a potential Super Bowl preview. The Baltimore Ravens are scoring the fourth-most points per game while allowing the fewest. The San Francisco 49ers are scoring the third-most points per game while allowing the second-fewest.
Baltimore has the league’s most productive running game, and Lamar Jackson’s athleticism makes the Ravens a unique problem for opposing defenses. One of the keys to this game will be how well Baltimore’s offensive line can mitigate San Francisco’s league-best front.
The 49ers are loaded on offense, to the point that few teams have ever had a better, more complete skill group. San Francisco can beat teams in any conceivable way, while Baltimore is reliant on Jackson against premium opponents. As long as Brock Purdy continues to play with extreme efficiency as he has for most of the year, the 49ers are the toughest out in the league.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Ravens 16
