Analysis
12/4/22
7 min read
NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Saints vs. Buccaneers
Monday Night Football: New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
Opening Spread: Buccaneers -5.5.
Opening Game Total: 40.
Opening Team Totals: Bucs (22.75) Saints (17.25).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Buccaneers -5.5.
- This line has moved down to Buccaneers -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Buccaneers -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Buccaneers -3.5.
- This total opened at 40 points.
- This total has moved to 40.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Buccaneers
Out: RT Tristan Wirfs.
Doubtful: CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, S Antoine Winfield Jr., S Mike Edwards.
Questionable: RB Leonard Fournette, TE Cameron Brate, LG Luke Goedeke, DL Akiem Hicks, DT Vita Vea.
Saints
Out: TE Juwan Johnson, C Erik McCoy.
Questionable: DT Malcolm Roach, LB Pete Werner, CB Marshon Lattimore.
The Buccaneers Offense vs. Saints Defense
Tristan Wirfs' injury pushes the Buccaneers' offensive line toward the back end of average. The Saints have a fringe top-10 front. New Orleans has a slight advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Buccaneers are 3-7-1 against the spread this season.
- Tampa Bay is 2-9 on overs this season.
- Tom Brady is 187-130-12 against the spread in his career.
- Brady is 169-158-2 on overs in his career.
- Todd Bowles is 35-38-5 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Bowles is 37-41 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Buccaneers Offense
- Tampa Bay is scoring 18.2 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- The Buccaneers are fifth in the league in yards passing per game and last in yards rushing.
- Leonard Fournette missed last week’s contest against Cleveland. Fournette’s last game was against the Seahawks in Munich. In that contest, Fournette had 14 carries and one target, while rookie running back Rachaad White had 22 carries and no targets, per the Edge.
- Fournette's injury created a large disparity in carries in that game. That said, White was part of the early game plan, so we could see a roughly even split when both players are healthy.
- Mike Evans has 52 total targets during his last five games. During that stretch, he’s breached 90 yards receiving twice, while also falling below 50 yards receiving twice. Evans has a 20.5% target share and a 36.6% air yards share.
- Chris Godwin has double-digit targets in six of his nine games this season. Godwin has at least 70 yards receiving in three of his last four games. Godwin has a 22.3% target share and an 18.4% air yards share.
- Julio Jones has breached 50 yards receiving in two of his six games. Jones has a 10.5% target share and a 21.2% air yards share.
- Cameron Brate's target share is 11.5%, and Cade Otton's is 8.4%.
Saints Defense
- New Orleans has allowed 23.3 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Saints are allowing the 14th-most yards rushing and the third-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs.
- New Orleans has given up the 12th-most yards receiving per game to receivers.
- The Saints have allowed the third-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends.
The Saints Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
New Orleans has a top-10-level offensive line at full strength. Left tackle Trevor Penning’s return somewhat balances out the loss of center Erik McCoy. The Buccaneers’ front is on the back end of the average tier since Shaquil Barrett is sidelined with a torn Achilles. The Saints have a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Saints are 4-8 against the spread this season.
- New Orleans is 6-6 on overs this season.
- Andy Dalton is 81-74-6 against the spread in his career.
- Dalton is 82-78-1 on overs in his career.
- Dennis Allen is 18-29-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Allen is 22-25-1 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Saints Offense
- New Orleans is scoring 20.8 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- The Saints are 10th in the league in yards passing per game and in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Alvin Kamara had a massive workload throughout the month of October with double-digit carries in every game, including a range of six to nine targets in those four contests. In November, Kamara had double-digit carries in one of four games while seeing four or more targets in each of those contests.
- Chris Olave is 18th in the league in receptions (56), 11th in yards receiving (822), 20th in target share (26.1%) and he’s fourth in air yards share (43.6%).
- Since returning to action three weeks ago, Jarvis Landry has four or more targets in each of his last three games.
- Landry plays two-thirds of his snaps in the slot.
- With Juwan Johnson sidelined, Adam Trautman becomes the Saints' primary tight end. Trautman has 14 receptions on 16 targets this season.
Buccaneers Defense
- Tampa Bay has allowed 18.5 points per game, which is sixth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Buccaneers have allowed the 15th-most yards rushing and the fewest yards receiving per game to running backs.
- Tampa Bay has given up the 21st-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers.
- The Buccaneers have given up the tenth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- Tampa Bay has allowed the 10th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends.
- The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Buccaneers vs. Saints
The Saints have had Brady’s number since he joined the Buccaneers, as he’s 1-4 against New Orleans during the last three seasons. His one win came in Week 2 of this season.
Injuries have transformed the Buccaneers' roster. Tampa Bay’s lines and secondary have been significantly impacted by injuries. Brady’s comfort level has been impacted by vulnerabilities at left guard and center all season. If you’re betting on the Buccaneers, you are first betting on Brady’s pocket management with three backup-level offensive linemen. You’re doing that against a Saints pass rush that has given Brady a ton of trouble the last three years.
The Buccaneers' defense will be without their best pass rusher in Barrett and three members of their secondary are listed as doubtful. A bet on the Buccaneers might be more of a bet against the Saints than a bet on Tampa’s injury-depleted roster. Your biggest concern as a Buccaneers' bettor is the Saints' pass rush gets to Brady early and often. Your second is the Buccaneers' injury-reduced pass rush and secondary give Dalton and the Saints enough opportunities to approach a 20-point outing on offense.
The 4-8 Saints aren’t dead in the NFC South race if they win this game. As mentioned above Brady is 1-4 against New Orleans since joining the Bucs. The Saints' pass rush has given Brady trouble, and Tampa Bay is missing its stud right tackle Wirfs. I’d build a Saints' bet around New Orleans’ defense having another strong showing against Brady.
Your biggest concern with a Saints bet is they were shut out by the 49ers last week, and they have failed to breach 14 points in three of their last four games. Dalton is a solid game manager, and the Buccaneers are missing several key players on defense, especially in their secondary. There is a realistic path to Dalton having a rock-solid showing against Tampa Bay’s injury-depleted defense.
Awards Market Ramifications: Chris Olave is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Saints in some of my winner pools. I expect to be below consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I may not take the Saints in my main tournament entry this week, but I’m going to take them in at least one of my more aggressive entries.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 38-22
Props 2022: 39-23
WATCH: Are Saints in Bucs' Head?
