Analysis
11/16/22
7 min read
NFL Week 11 Offensive Efficiency Rankings
Despite the NFL rules being continually tilted in offenses’ favor, 2022 has been a down year for offensive production. There are not a lot of teams consistently playing good offensive football, as just seven offenses are averaging a positive EPA/play thus far. To put that into perspective, 12 teams finished with a positive EPA/play in 2021.
The league-wide average EPA/play is down just slightly, but it would seem this is an instance of a rising tide lifting all boats, with the top offenses buoying the NFL average a bit.
Offensive Efficiency Rankings Explained
This season, we’ve taken a weekly temperature on the efficiency of each offense and defense. This article will once again check in on how each NFL defense ranks in EPA/Play. If you’re unfamiliar with EPA, it stands for expected points added and is simply a way to measure whether or not a play brought a team closer to scoring.
For example, it’s easy to understand that a gain of five yards on fourth-and-4 is good, whereas a gain of five yards on fourth-and-6 is bad, and EPA can contextualize that in a way that net yards cannot.
To put into context the worth of a big turnover, another example would be a quarterback throwing a pick-six on first-and-goal from the opponent’s 1-yard line. Conventional wisdom would say that was a 14-point swing – because we expected the offense to score a touchdown in that situation – and EPA would reflect roughly that.
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1. Kansas City Chiefs
EPA/Play = 0.13
Last Week = 1
The Chiefs are once again in a league of their own. Despite losing Tyreek Hill, their EPA/Play is the highest it’s been since Mahomes’ first season as a starter. Travis Kelce ranks second in receiving Total Points earned (27.4), and JuJu Smith-Schuster has enjoyed a renaissance year, ranking 18th in Total Points earned (14).
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2. Philadelphia Eagles
EPA/Play = 0.07
Last Week = 2
3. Buffalo Bills
EPA/Play = 0.06
Last Week = 3
Through the first seven weeks of the season, Josh Allen ranked seventh in passing Total Points/play. In the past three weeks, he ranks just 24th and has thrown six interceptions. The preseason Super Bowl favorites are on a two-game losing skid and are no longer 1st in the AFC East.
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4. Miami Dolphins
EPA/Play = 0.05
Last Week = T-5
Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike McDaniel are in rarified air right now. The Dolphins' passing attack’s boom rate is 27.1%, which ranks fifth since 2016 behind the 2018 Chiefs, the 2019 49ers, the 2018 Rams and the 2016 Falcons. Needless to say, McDaniel was on staff in San Francisco and Atlanta for those respective years. It will be interesting to see if Tua Tagovailoa can maintain this level of production, or if he has a falling from grace like Jimmy Garoppolo, but for now, Miami is extremely fun to watch.
5. Baltimore Ravens
EPA/Play = 0.03
Last Week = 4
6. Seattle Seahawks
EPA/Play = 0.02
Last Week = T-5
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7. Las Vegas Raiders
EPA/Play = 0.01
Last Week = 8
T-8. Cincinnati Bengals
EPA/Play = 0.00
Last Week = 9
T-8. Cleveland Browns
EPA/Play = 0.00
Last Week = T-5
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T-10. Jacksonville Jaguars
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = T-10
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T-10. New York Giants
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = 12
T-12. San Francisco 49ers
EPA/Play = -0.02
Last Week = T-13
T-12. Detroit Lions
EPA/Play = -0.02
Last Week = T-15
T-14. Arizona Cardinals
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = T-15
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T-14. Minnesota Vikings
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = T-13
T-14. Atlanta Falcons
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = T-10
T-17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = 20
T-17. Dallas Cowboys
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = T-15
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T-17. Chicago Bears
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = 21
Justin Fields has seemingly turned a corner in the last three weeks. He ranks just 13th in Total Points/pass (0.16) over that span, but his 0.57 Total Points/rush ranks first in the league. When you factor in scrambles, he’s averaging 0.39 Total Points/dropback. There’s still room for improvement, but the game appears to be slowing down for him, and that should be encouraging for Bears fans.
T-20. Los Angeles Chargers
EPA/Play = -0.06
Last Week = T-15
T-20. Green Bay Packers
EPA/Play = -0.06
Last Week = T-22
T-20. New Orleans Saints
EPA/Play = -0.06
Last Week = T-15
T-23. New York Jets
EPA/Play = -0.09
Last Week = T-22
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T-23. Tennessee Titans
EPA/Play = -0.09
Last Week = T-22
25. Carolina Panthers
EPA/Play = -0.10
Last Week = T-26
T-26. Pittsburgh Steelers
EPA/Play = -0.11
Last Week = T-28
The Kenny Pickett endeavor has been an abject failure thus far. It remains unclear how or why he got drafted in the first round, and he’s looked exceptionally bad for a fifth-year senior who was billed as pro-ready. He ranks 35th out of 40 quarterbacks in passing Total Points/play (0.01). Only four quarterbacks in the Total Points era had worse rookie seasons: Jared Goff, DeShone Kizer, Paxton Lynch and Josh Rosen. If the season ended today, the Steelers would have the 10th overall pick in the draft. Quarterback is absolutely the top need for Pittsburgh.
T-26. New England Patriots
EPA/Play = -0.11
Last Week = 25
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T-28. Washington Commanders
EPA/Play = -0.12
Last Week = T-28
T-28. Houston Texans
EPA/Play = -0.12
Last Week = T-30
30. Los Angeles Rams
EPA/Play = -0.13
Last Week = T-26
31. Denver Broncos
EPA/Play = -0.14
Last Week = T-30
The Broncos are 1-5 in their last six games and have failed to score 20 or more points in seven of their nine games. They rank 244th out of 256 offenses in EPA/play since 2015. They’re completely dysfunctional, and the Russell Wilson trade is arguably the worst trade in NFL history. If that wasn’t bad enough, his contract is virtually untradeable and they’re stuck with him until 2026 when his dead cap hit would be a mere $31.2M. Nathaniel Hackett, however, could be a one-and-done.
32. Indianapolis Colts
EPA/Play = -0.15
Last Week = 32
Prepared by Bryce Rossler.
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